Mr. Kolas wrote:
Lobo land wrote:Trust me, CU put forth as little effort as possible today. They could have finished 6th or 7th in this Regional and likely still had enough Kolas points to qualify. So no, they were not too worried, I suspect.
Yeah except that's not how qualifying for nationals works...
Yes. That is exactly how it works. They got enough points at Pre nats to make it
as others have said, toss regionals right out the window. don't mean a thing as different teams have different strategies depending on the region they are in, their at large points, and what they need to do to get through the weekend.
looking at 2002-2014 ncaa champs results, historically the #1 team's 1-5 finish the following way (place, not score):
min max average median
1st man: 1 12 5 5
2nd man: 3 20 9.2 8
3rd man: 5 30 16 13
4th man: 6 47 29 29
5th man: 12 97 48 46
i think you can make the argument this will be a pretty typical year and fall somewhere near the average or median place for each finisher. some things to think about, imo:
colorado: possible question mark in Saarel, also would bring up Dressel - asking a true freshman to run a strong race at nationals is historically a tough ask.
stanford: not sure if they were holding anyone else out at the west regional but if they are planning on running fisher at nationals - again, a big ask for a freshman, especially in his first college cross country race (think he ran a small meet unattached early in the season but that's basically a tempo run).
syracuse: have been lackluster at nationals in the past - think this could be year they sort things out and crack top 3. don't see any individual weaknesses.
i have a hard time believing colorado loses this - i think saarel will run well enough to get them another championship (top 15) and the rest of their guys are solid - they will make up a possible small disadvantage against syracuse's 1,2,3 at 4 & 5. syracuse comes in 2nd next - i see their weakness specifically being 4th man - hubbard and lennon can grab around 45-50, but asking one of them to grab top 30 seems a bit of a stretch. no doubt they need a strong race from both to have a shot, or at least have one of them run extremely well. stanford i pick 3rd - just can't see an unexperienced freshman getting them over the hump.
all going to be in the 4-5. i have too much time on my hands.
will be an interesting race for sure.
look at the numbers wrote:
as others have said, toss regionals right out the window. don't mean a thing as different teams have different strategies depending on the region they are in, their at large points, and what they need to do to get through the weekend..
What you probably meant is toss Regional score out the window. Everybody knows that, nobody is looking at that.
However, important/interesting info came out of Regionals
Colorado brought Saarel out. That's interesting. He didn't run well at all. May mean something or not. It probably means something. He is not totally healthy/lost a lot of training or both. We will find out soon enough.
Louisville brought out Yator. They were missing a 5th guy. Even though it's impossible to find any history on this guy, he did pretty well (for a 5th man). Was that his MAX? Probably not, since it's his first race of the season. He may do even better this weekend.
Syracuse: Lennon ran his best race of the year and he looked really controlled. Hubbard came back from his bad performance at ACC, but he didn't run as well as he did at Wisconsin. He also looked pretty controlled too. Germano didn't look as good in his effort. He didn't look terrible however. He's only expected to be Syracuse's 6th man anyway.
Stanford looked very good.
Washington also looked good.
UTEP's 4th man (the freshman) keeps improving. Koech also looks better and better at every race.
...a lot of info from the Regionals.
Don't though out good info...
called it!!!!
Germano, made the difference...
Yvybgbygugyggbu wrote:
MikeD wrote:So Pierce is 5th in 10k last year ahead of some on the list above and some think he has lost fitness this year and others have passed him?
He has not shown that he can beat Ches, Curtin, Scott, Rotish, Koech, Tiernan, McGorty... (Should I go on?) this season.
Maybe he's hiding all this amazing fitness, but he has not shown it in the past 2 months.
Think of Patrick Awad, who ran 13:33 last summer (faster than Murphy and pretty much all these guys). Nobody is mentioning him as a top 10 prospect. Why? He simply has not shown that level of fitness either.
Well what now??
Colorado did as best as possible putting 6 ahead of Syracuse's 4th runner. A great race for both teams.
The Syracuse low sticks...WOW. Boy did they deliver. Colorado couldn't keep pace up front and 'Cuse 6th man Germano had the day of his life and they pulled it off! That's how it's done!
I knew an honest race did not work in Colorado's favor in the team race, especially in Louisville. They did not run badly at all, but they pack-run and didn't commit to the early pace up front outside of Murphy. Syracuse did and that was the difference.
joedirt wrote:
Whoever started this thread is an idiot. Colorado wins the toughest regional in the country and suddenly they are vulnerable? Give me a break.
Who is the idiot today?
Vvgyvgyvgyvyg wrote:
joedirt wrote:Whoever started this thread is an idiot. Colorado wins the toughest regional in the country and suddenly they are vulnerable? Give me a break.
Who is the idiot today?
Steve, I think.
Debdseesdsedddrrrr wrote:
MikeD wrote:Ches
Curtin
Scott
Tiernan
Knight
Rotish
Koech
McGorty
Bennie
Hehir...
You may want to check last years 10k results at NCAAs Murphy will beat half your list for sure,if not all of them.
Murphy beating this whole list. Mmmm... Care to put your money where your mouth is?
8/10 isn't too bad for a surfer boy!!
Great race by Syracuse. Colorado was close and also ran very well.
MikeD wrote:
Debdseesdsedddrrrr wrote:Murphy beating this whole list. Mmmm... Care to put your money where your mouth is?
8/10 isn't too bad for a surfer boy!!
Predicting 7 of the top 10 is not bad either... (Koech was 11th). But that was me, not you... Murphy, Green and Rosa did indeed surprise me (but I had all 3 just outside the top 10). But Syracuse and Colorado as a whole did not...
Jhjhjhjhhkhk wrote:
MikeD wrote:8/10 isn't too bad for a surfer boy!!
Predicting 7 of the top 10 is not bad either... (Koech was 11th). But that was me, not you... Murphy, Green and Rosa did indeed surprise me (but I had all 3 just outside the top 10). But Syracuse and Colorado as a whole did not...
I never placed a prediction on top ten. You only went with the majority of people and what they were saying. Point being , I told you Pierce would beat most of those guys and he did. I'm out !!! See ya next year with your " predictions"
MikeD wrote:
Jhjhjhjhhkhk wrote:Predicting 7 of the top 10 is not bad either... (Koech was 11th). But that was me, not you... Murphy, Green and Rosa did indeed surprise me (but I had all 3 just outside the top 10). But Syracuse and Colorado as a whole did not...
I never placed a prediction on top ten. You only went with the majority of people and what they were saying. Point being , I told you Pierce would beat most of those guys and he did. I'm out !!! See ya next year with your " predictions"
Not sure how many people were predicting Bennie and Hehir in the top 10, but I did...
They were never the favorites.