Is it official? Is Colorado no longer the favourites?

Yyggyygugutg wrote:

runnerbro wrote:

CU wins but they aren't the monster they were last year. here are my predictions.

Ben Saarel is the CU #1 and finishes top 10 (around 5-8)...

So Saarel, who sports a 5000m PB of 13:49, wakes up 8 days before NCAA, runs a weak race, then goes on to beat people like Knight, McGorty, Hehir, Koech, Bennie, Green, Yorks, Murphy (there's a long list here)... Most of whom either have faster PBs than him or have been running well all season (or both). I'm assuming that you at least believe that Ches, Rotish, Curtin, Scott and Tiernan will beat him (actually not, you believe that he may even beat one of these 5).

Where does he get this fantastic power which allows him to perform such a feat?

He's finished 7th and 8th before. The 7th last year was after a mediocre season. Historically, he's turned it on when it matters for xc. I agree with you, though, that this year will probably be different. It's foolish to think that there's no chance he finishes top 10, however. Track PRs don't mean too much for xc.

Stanford ran Regionals w/o Fisher & Keelan.

With Fisher but w/o Keelan at Pac-12s, Stanford was a close 2nd to Colorado which was w/o Sareel.

With both Fisher & Keelan & Sareel back in the lineups for their respective schools for NCAAs, sure seems like Colorado & Stanford should be considered pre-meet co-favorites.

The 7th last year was after a mediocre season. Historically, he's turned it on when it matters for xc. I agree with you, though, that this year will probably be different.

Define mediocre. He was 4th a pre nationals and 8th at PAC 12.

All of the CU guys would have loved to have such a mediocre season this year. Nobody came close to that.

No, he was not expected to come top 10, but what he has done this season doesn't compare at all. Unless he has special access to the XC Gods, I doubt that he will be a factor at the front of the field this year. If he tries, he will end up in the 100+ group.

Yyggyygugutg wrote:

runnerbro wrote:

CU wins but they aren't the monster they were last year. here are my predictions.

Ben Saarel is the CU #1 and finishes top 10 (around 5-8)...

So Saarel, who sports a 5000m PB of 13:49, wakes up 8 days before NCAA, runs a weak race, then goes on to beat people like Knight, McGorty, Hehir, Koech, Bennie, Green, Yorks, Murphy (there's a long list here)... Most of whom either have faster PBs than him or have been running well all season (or both). I'm assuming that you at least believe that Ches, Rotish, Curtin, Scott and Tiernan will beat him (actually not, you believe that he may even beat one of these 5).

Where does he get this fantastic power which allows him to perform such a feat?

Dude- he's Ben F'in Saarel. He is a fantastic power all to his own, he need not "get it" from anywhere. He'll probably cure cancer and discover cold fusion WHILE running top ten.

Predictions:

1. CU

2. Stanford

3. BYU (Eyestone is a genius- These guys are better than anyone knows)

4. 'Cuse

5. A Surprise that has a few unheralded Africans.

MD Phan wrote:

Dude- he's Ben F'in Saarel. He is a fantastic power all to his own, he need not "get it" from anywhere. He'll probably cure cancer and discover cold fusion WHILE running top ten.

.

That's the only possible answer. He must be God's gift to the universe.

Yyggyygugutg wrote:

runnerbro wrote:

CU wins but they aren't the monster they were last year. here are my predictions.

Ben Saarel is the CU #1 and finishes top 10 (around 5-8)...

So Saarel, who sports a 5000m PB of 13:49, wakes up 8 days before NCAA, runs a weak race, then goes on to beat people like Knight, McGorty, Hehir, Koech, Bennie, Green, Yorks, Murphy (there's a long list here)... Most of whom either have faster PBs than him or have been running well all season (or both). I'm assuming that you at least believe that Ches, Rotish, Curtin, Scott and Tiernan will beat him (actually not, you believe that he may even beat one of these 5).

Where does he get this fantastic power which allows him to perform such a feat?

So his 13:49 is faster than the pr of knight and Hehir. Yorks isn't a distance guy and showed it with 10k at regionals. ( remember you wanted to know why he ran bad) and no one from Georgetown (green) will beat Ben. I don't have great visions of Scott doing anything big.

This is a really bad post. Just wanted to let you know that.

Actually Knight has a PR of 13:34, and Yorks got 3rd at PAC 12's behind Chez and McGorty

The 10k at the West Region was in very muddy, cold, and rainy conditions

Guys, you're all missing the point!!!

It should be- Is Colorado no longer the favorite?

Also, I have to agree that Saarel will be top ten- its a pretty bold call, but the guy has come up huge twice in his first two years.

I would say neither performance (7th or 8th) was 'expected'.

Saarel/Murphy top ten, Moussa/pearson 10-20, dressel 20-30.

Buffs FTW

Will Pierce Murphy attempt to run professionally?

I agree that Colorado remains the favorite, especially now with Saarel. However, if they are a bit off and Syracuse knocks it out of the park, I can see this scenario playing out:

-Justin Knight battles with King Ches, only to come up short and get nipped by Rotich. He crosses in 3rd. Pierce Murphy fades a bit from Cheserek, Knight, Curtin, and a few Kenyans over the last 2k, but remains the Buffs Top Runner in 9th.

-Collin Bennie and Martin Hehir come through and prove Syracuse has the best 1-3 punch, finishing together in 11-12. (Think Wisco at the 2012 NCAA championships) Meanwhile, Moussa runs hard for 16th, showing he's a solid low-stick but not in 2014 form. Saarel, in his second race, closes hard for 18th, but is not fully back to his old self after a slow start to the season.

-Here is where it gets interesting. In the battle for 4th and 5th man, Joel Hubbard fights hard and equals an outstanding performance to that of his finishes at Regionals/Battle of Beantown, coming in 32nd. Dan Lennon rounds out the top 5 by running out of his mind the last 2k to cross in 44th, just outside All-American (think Timo Goehler for Portland last year--a total shocker)

Meanwhile, Morgan Pearson finishes 24th for the Buffs, well ahead of Hubbard to win the battle for 4th. Dressel, a likely candidate for 5th, goes out hard and fades in the second half, finishing in the 60-80 range while Winter rounds out the top 5 placing 36th. Like Moussa, he is not as sharp as 2014 but is still All-American.

In this scenario, you have Syracuse finishing 3-11-12-32-44

Colorado, not at their best, finishes 9-16-18-24-36.

Writing this out, I see how absurd this prediction really is. But crazy things happen, which is why we run the race. If someone is to knock off Colorado, I think Syracuse is the team. Stanford still has too many variables, and I cannot see either of the Rosa twins finishing in the top 20. Who knows.

CU's got another returning all american in Connor Winter (24th last year)..

This is true. Of course, this scenario assumes he takes a small step back with Morgan Pearson filling his space in 24th. Or, perhaps he finishes 24th again and Pearson (while 17th two years ago) has an off day and is back in 36th. Either way, I do not think Dressel will be in the top 5 for Colorado at Nationals. I hope he proves me wrong.

I hope this dude MikeD is trolling us all beacause, if not, this is truly a moronic statement.

1. Justyn Knight has a 5k pb of 13:34 and Martin Hehir has run 13:35 and 28:27 for 10k to boot.

2. Why are you reading into the results from regionals? Izaik Yorks is legit in xc and has proved it. By your logic, Saarel and Connor Winter must have raced poorly and are not good in xc either based on their regional performances...

3. You're an idiot. Marc Scott will most likely be top 5.

Lobo land wrote:

Trust me, CU put forth as little effort as possible today. They could have finished 6th or 7th in this Regional and likely still had enough Kolas points to qualify. So no, they were not too worried, I suspect.

Yeah except that's not how qualifying for nationals works...

Craig Lutz Fan wrote:

Will Pierce Murphy attempt to run professionally?

If Craig Lutz did, why not?

A case for Syracuse wrote:

-Here is where it gets interesting. In the battle for 4th and 5th man, Joel Hubbard fights hard and equals an outstanding performance to that of his finishes at Regionals/Battle of Beantown, coming in 32nd. Dan Lennon rounds out the top 5 by running out of his mind the last 2k to cross in 44th, just outside All-American (think Timo Goehler for Portland last year--a total shocker)

...

In this scenario, you have Syracuse finishing 3-11-12-32-44

Colorado, not at their best, finishes 9-16-18-24-36.

Writing this out, I see how absurd this prediction really is. But crazy things happen, which is why we run the race. If someone is to knock off Colorado, I think Syracuse is the team. Stanford still has too many variables, and I cannot see either of the Rosa twins finishing in the top 20. Who knows.

Lennon did finish 45th last year at NCAA, so it's not completely impossible that he finishes 44th.

Hubbard 32th is what is highly doubtful...

He has never run at that level before...

I just don't know if that interests pierce.

MikeD wrote:

Craig Lutz Fan wrote:

Will Pierce Murphy attempt to run professionally?

If Craig Lutz did, why not?