Official 2015 NCAA XC Regional Live Discussion Thread

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  • devils advocate
    registered
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:09pm CST
    re: Blargh
    Forum Index
    Bo here -- author of letsrun's program. There are two main reasons for discrepancies (unless I have a bug in the program):

    (1) there is a mistake somewhere in the season results
    (2) different interpretations of the common opponent tiebreaking rule

    For (1), hopefully the letsrun sleuths have rechecked these enough that they're accurate. However, with A and B teams it's always a lot of work and you have to be really careful.

    For (2), it's important to realize that the common-opponents rule is not exactly defined in the rulebook. It just says that the committee should break ties using record against common opponents (but how?). So Flotrack may be using a different interpretation than us. This almost never ends up mattering, but this year it does. This program uses the interpretation "take the group of opponents that both teams have faced, and pick whichever has the most wins against that group". Maybe the committee and/or Flotrack use a different interpretation -- I don't know (and would love to find out).

    So the bottom line that I can see is (a) you can't be sure till the committee makes an announcement, and (b) if you want the best guess possible, you have to look through the season results and make a judgement call about the common opponents tiebreaker.
  • xcfann
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:17pm CST
    re: devils advocate
    Forum Index
    Looks like Flotrack just came around to your view on the men's list. Maybe they should also recrunch their numbers on the women's list.
  • WonderingAboutGonzaga
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:20pm CST
    re: xcfann
    Forum Index
    Where and when will be the official word on qualifying teams and at large individuals?
  • Blargh
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:20pm CST
    re: xcfann
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    Flotrack has changed their list to include boise state, cal, ucla, and southern utah. Funny that they had a whole live show and they were wrong lmaaoooooo
  • Drama
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:20pm CST
    re: xcfann
    Forum Index
    It's simply an interpretation of the rules - can you push in via common opponents or simply points. If it is simply points, San Fran doesn't get pushed in and Flotrack is right. If you can push in on common opponents Gonzaga pushes in San Fran and Lets Run is right.
  • ezb
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:21pm CST
    re: marathnr
    Forum Index
    I don't think it's time differential. I think it is the 2 highest placing 5th individuals (individual meaning a runner not on a qualifying team). Mascari was 6th in his region behind 4 individuals and 1 team qualifier, so probably stands to be one of the 2. Haven't looked at the other regions in detail, but I'd be surprised if other regions had 4 individuals in the top 6.
    marathnr wrote:

    Kewl wrote:

    Any updates on the at large individuals?

    I just went through all 9 regionals and looked at the time gaps from the 4th place individuals to the 5th place individuals. The closest 5th place finisher to a 4th place individual was John Mascari from Indiana State. He was 3.1 seconds from the 4th place individual qualifier (Butler kid).

    This is only if letsrun.com is right with it's prediction of at large teams.
  • eeeeeekihopetheyrein
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:25pm CST
    re: ezb
    Forum Index
    any word on the William and Mary Women??
  • wejo
    cofounder
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:31pm CST
    re: devils advocate
    Forum Index
    We just reran things giving Boise State less points at Pre Nats to try and simulate them not pushing Washington State and under that scenario Washington State would be the final team in and not need to be pushed in.

    Currently we have this:
    27 washington state
    28 boise state
    29 california
    30 ucla
    31 southern utah

    If Washington State doesn't get pushed in our final 4 are this:
    27 southern utah
    28 air force
    29 colorado state
    30 cornell
    31 washington state

    However, the rule is how we originally had it. Boise State does not push only if it does not get in on its own which is what would happen. So Boise State pushes Washington State at #28 which is what we had.

    Scenario #1 above is correct.
  • rojo
    cofounder
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:40pm CST
    re: xcfann
    Forum Index
    xcfann wrote:

    Looks like Flotrack just came around to your view on the men's list. Maybe they should also recrunch their numbers on the women's list.

    We're confident our men's one is correct. The issue was at #27. Flotrack initially didn't have Washington State getting pushed in at that point as they determined that Washington State would later get in on their own. But that's not the way the rule works. You only worry about the team that is doing the pushing? In this case, Boise State wouldn't get in so you push then and there.

    In terms of the women's results, the difference between us and them is the result of the 23rd qualifier spot, which we have as San Francisco (pushed in by Gonzaga). A bunch of teams have one at-large point at that point in the process and Gonzaga wins our tiebreaker based on a common opponent victory over Princeton. That common opponent is BYU, whom Gonzaga beat at the WCC Champs (the two teams tied on points but Gonzaga is listed as the winner).

    The unresolved question is whether a team can push another team in after winning a common opponent tie breaker. If this cannot happen then Wisconsin and Purdue should replace Gonzaga and San Francisco below.

    One caveat about the common opponent tiebreaker from Bo Waggoner. See below.

    Bo Waggoner says:

    The rule only says that the selection committee can or will use record against common opponents in order to break ties. But how exactly? It doesn't say.

    The program interprets this by taking all the common opponents of the two teams and seeing who has more wins against this group, team 1 or team 2.
    But that's just my interpretation of the rule. It might not be what the committee does! I don't know... :(
  • wejo
    cofounder
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 5:57pm CST
    re: devils advocate
    Forum Index
    Here's what the rulebook says about pushing and common opponents. I don't see why you wouldn't go as far out as possible (common opponents) and let them push but it's not specifically stated:

    The NCAA rule book says this about pushing: "The Push Process: The situation may arise when the next team under consideration based upon regional finish from a specific region (Team X) does not have enough wins (points) to earn an at-large bid, but the team immediately behind Team X in regional finish (Team Y) does have enough wins (points) to be the next at-large team selected. In this case, both teams X and Y will receive at-large bids (Team Y “pushes†Team X into the championships) if: (1) The push process has not been used within that specific region earlier in the at-large selection process, and (2) There are two or more at-large positions available in the selection process, and (3) Team Y would not be able to receive an at-large berth on its own -- in other words, when Team X is permanently blocking Team Y. There have been occasions when Team Y has the most wins of the teams under consideration, but the committee can determine that Team Y will receive an at-large berth later in the process. In these cases a “push†is not absolutely necessary and would not be applied."

    and this about common opponents: "4. Records of the teams under consideration against common opponents. If the committee cannot make a decision based upon head-to-head competition, it reviews results against common opponents. a. In order to maintain seven competition opportunities, results versus common opponents must have occurred between the seventh weekend before the NCAA regional meet (i.e., Friday, Saturday and Sunday, Sept. 25-27, 2015) through the conclusion of NCAA Regional Cross Country Championships (scheduled for Nov. 13, 2015). b. The committee evaluates the cumulative record against common opponents, including multiple wins and/or losses against an opponent(s). c. In situations where the record against common opponents’ data is equal between teams under consideration, the committee may give greater consideration to the competition conducted closest to the regional championship date."

    http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamps_DI_CrossCountry_2015%20%282%29.pdf
  • jhgfd
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 6:15pm CST
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    It's hard to believe that this push question situation with the women has never happened before. There has to be precedent.
  • Crazytalk
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 6:20pm CST
    re: jhgfd
    Forum Index
    UNC women finish 3rd in probably the hardest region and don't make it on either list. Any chance this changes?
  • Kewl
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 6:21pm CST
    re: jhgfd
    Forum Index
    jhgfd wrote:

    It's hard to believe that this push question situation with the women has never happened before. There has to be precedent.

    Is the NCAA announcing officially tomorrow or sunday? Ruins a lot of travel plans if they wait.
  • http://livecoverage.flotrackDP
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 6:44pm CST
    re: Kewl
    Forum Index
    WomenAuto Qualifying Teams:
    South: Vanderbilt & Mississippi State
    South Central: Arkansas & Texas
    Mid Atlantic: Penn State & Georgetown
    NorthEast: Providence & Syracuse
    SouthEast: Virginia & North Carolina State
    Great Lakes: Michigan & Notre Dame
    MidWest: Oklahoma State & Iowa State
    Mountain: Colorado & New Mexico
    West: Oregon & Boise State

    At Large:
    Washington
    Stanford
    Utah
    BYU
    Michigan State
    Princeton
    Weber State
    Minnesota
    Tulsa
    Kansas
    Wisconsin
    Purdue
    Villanova


    First Team Out:
    NAU
    https://twitter.com/FloTrack/status/665278240051720193
  • Kevin Hadsell
    registered
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 7:01pm CST
    re: Crazytalk
    Forum Index
    I haven't done the list myself. However, I can tell you with 100% certainty, that it does not matter how you win your tie breakers, if you actually do win the tie breaker, it is the same as making it in on straight points. If that means you push someone in, then that's what it means.

    Tie breakers on common opponents has happened before. We lost a bid to NCAA in 2002 to Washington for the last spot based on losing a tie breaker with Washington due to common opponent (Indiana).

    ~Kevin
  • Ricardo
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 7:01pm CST
    re: Flotrack has it
    Forum Index
    Flotrack has it wrote:

    Heard from a source that something is wrong in your program, Flotrack has it correct, not sure where the error stems from though.

    You might talk to your 'source'.

    Flotrack was wrong . They changed theirs to match Letsrun.

    Letsrun has explained why the women are different.
  • Kevin Hadsell
    registered
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 7:11pm CST
    re: Ricardo
    Forum Index
    ...and yes, you can push in a team with the same amount of points as long as SF would not have eventually gotten in on their own.
  • Ron99
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 7:14pm CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    Shouldn't the 9 team tie breaker be determined by total record against all other teams in the tie? If so Princeton should be selected because they're 7-0. MSU is next best at 6-1. Gonzaga is just 1-1.
  • Thanks`
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 7:17pm CST
    re: West Region
    Forum Index
    West Region wrote:

    http://www.rtspt.com/events/ncaa/d1westxc15/mp/#event2

    West Men's Results are up

    Cheserek wins by 11 seconds.

    Team Scores-

    1. Washington
    2. Stanford
    3. Oregon
    4. Washington State
    5. Boise State

    Unfortunately, this thread is mostly a useless pissing contest about schools.
  • wejo
    cofounder
    4 years ago 11/13/2015 7:47pm CST
    re: Ron99
    Forum Index
    Ron99 wrote:

    Shouldn't the 9 team tie breaker be determined by total record against all other teams in the tie? If so Princeton should be selected because they're 7-0. MSU is next best at 6-1. Gonzaga is just 1-1.

    Who do you have gonzaga losing too? I'm pretty sure the program has them undefeated.

    Princeton beat more people but the program doesn't factor that I they are both undefeated I believe.