Robert,
I'm glad you responded. I actually met you at the World XC champs in Amman, Jordan several years back.
Let me make a few points. First of all, her improvement is remarkable. It calls to mind...your brother! I've read, so many times, how Weldon, who trained hard but not smart in college, finally found the right way thanks to John Kellogg. I would simply say that Lisa did the same thing- a radical departure from track training which was appropriate in college. As I mentioned, look at what she does. Training the fat-burning system, no track workouts as far as I know. Let's do some time comparisons because like you I'm amazed at how slow she is...and how fast she is at the marathon.
Let's look at Paula Radcliffe, Shalane Flanagan, and Lisa. Specifically the comparison between their 10k times and marathons and how they relate in terms of scoring tables and how close their pace over the marathon comes to their 10k pace.
I'm using Gardner and Purdy to compare times.
Paula:
30:01 (906)...2:15:25 (962)
much better marathon performance, 20 second time differential.
Shalane:
30:22 (888)...2:21:14 (894)
Shalane went out too hard at Berlin. Really she was capable of mid 2:20 that day (900), but going with actual performance:
Almost the same performance, 29 second differential.
Lisa
No track 10 km since college. It's too bad because it would give us a better basis of comparison. My hunch is she'd be very close to 32 flat (805). If that's true than the differential for her is 24 seconds...half way between Paula's and Shalane's.
half marathon:
1:09:18 (844)...2:25:44 (845)
Identical performances over the two distances. Her comments after the half were that her breathing was fine but she couldn't turn her legs over any faster...and a short time later she ran 2:25.
Observations:
Paula's marathon is much better than her 10k.
Shalane's 10k and her marathon are very similar.
Lisa's marathon and half marathon are very similar.
Based on Shalane's American record at 15k I'd say Lisa is ten seconds per mile slower than Shalane both at the marathon and half marathon.
It's Paula's performance that stands out here as suspicious. But one can argue that physiologically Paula is clearly a marathoner. I've often thought Shalane needs to slow down her long runs but that's just a hunch. She comes from a stellar track background, perhaps she runs too hard. She could improve her marathon in relation to her 10k. Or perhaps she cannot because her natural talent lies at 10k-15k.
I am saying that Lisa has fulfilled her potential through smart training. Shalane may not have. And as for Paula, that subject's been written about extensively.