More evidence that the Sub-2 marathon isn't close.

39 deg F? RU serious?

55 is perfect for FAST runners.

that's cold wrote:

39 deg F? RU serious?

55 is perfect for FAST runners.

check it out bro

'When French researchers analyzed the finishing times of 1.8 million marathoners over a 10-year period, they found that a race-day temp of 43.2°F produced the quickest times overall. But faster runners, who generate more heat, benefited from cooler temps, with the top one percent (green line below) peaking at 38.9°F. Midpackers (red line) do best in the mid-40s.'

that's cold wrote:

39 deg F? RU serious?

55 is perfect for FAST runners.

Here ya go:

electron1661 wrote:

that's cold wrote:

39 deg F? RU serious?

55 is perfect for FAST runners.

http://www.runnersworld.com/sweat-science/whats-the-optimal-temperature-for-marathons

check it out bro

'When French researchers analyzed the finishing times of 1.8 million marathoners over a 10-year period, they found that a race-day temp of 43.2°F produced the quickest times overall. But faster runners, who generate more heat, benefited from cooler temps, with the top one percent (green line below) peaking at 38.9°F. Midpackers (red line) do best in the mid-40s.'

No, faster runners get more cooling effect and their race is over quicker, that's why they prefer slightly warmer temperatures than slower runners.

55 is perfect for them, that's one of the reasons why Berlin is often the fastest race.

Your logic is illogical.

You're not very smart.

Letsrun actual motto wrote:

The motto is, or was, "where your dreams become reality" and one of mine is to see a sub 2 hour marathon in my lifetime. I'm pretty sure it will happen.

Depends how old you are. If your 30, I like the chances (assuming your live to 85 or so). If your 70, I would bet against you.

Anyone expecting to see a 2:00 flat in the next 5 years is very optimistic. Anyone who doesn't think it is possible in the next 50, is probably being pessimestic. Or maybe you think we will develop better drug testing:)

1. No one has ever run sub-2 hour pace for even 90 minutes.

But no one has really tried, either. Suppose some sponsor set up a 30k race in, say, Berlin and offered $500k to every runner who broke 85. I'm pretty sure you'd suddenly see a bunch of top East Africans focus on the challenge of hitting that standard. The event would probably work best with relay teams of pacers - perhaps five times of 3 pacers each running 10k in 28:20.

2. Only 130 men have ever broken 60 in the half. Only 14 have broken 59.

3. Even though the WR in the marathon has improved 2 minutes in 11 years (When Tergat brought back the East African dominance in the event), the half WR has only improved 43 seconds in that time.

Wanjiru ran 58:33 before turning 21. With all due respect to Z Tadese, we haven't seen a Wanjiru-like talent since then, and the best guys don't focus on the half anyway since the big money is in the marathon.

My opinion: If the money is there to draw top marathoners to the challenge of breaking 2 hours and a Wanjiru-like talent emerges [and doesn't turn into a raging alcoholic], we'll either see someone break 2 hours or we'll learn something about what physiological limits make that accomplishment impossible given current human genetics and the current state of PED development. I'm guessing that breaking 2 hours turns out to be possible, but that's just a guess and I don't believe anyone is currently in a position to do more than guess.

I don't agree with a lot of the logic here.

The first premise was was winner of New York didn't close his last 10K in sub 2 pace.

Well, his PR is just under 2:05 so he isn't the one that's going to run sub 2.

I don't know why you need a lot men under 60 for the half.

E. Mutai has never gone under 60 and he's the second fastest marathoner ever.

People don't do all out 90 minute races so no one would have tried to run sub 2 pace for that length of time.

We're not close to sub 2 hour marathon because it would take quite an effort to beat Kimmetto's performance by finishing more than 1000m ahead of him.

Go back and look up Moses Mosop's 30km track record and you will begin to see that a sub 2 is doable.

Tartan surface, two miles in length, loop in nature, right now being planned in Japan...to broadcast Eikedens.

Sub 2 happens within 5 years.

Egun wrote:

Go back and look up Moses Mosop's 30km track record and you will begin to see that a sub 2 is doable.

Tartan surface, two miles in length, loop in nature, right now being planned in Japan...to broadcast Eikedens.

Sub 2 happens within 5 years.

I'm a big Mosop fan and his 86:48 on the track is very impressive, but I'd say that time is more in line with Kimetto's record than with sub 2. And for all that I'm a big Mosop fan, I don't think he's as big a talent as Wanjiru was.

"Sub 2 happens within 5 years" - hmmm, I think no, because if it happens within 5 years, it's almost certainly someone who's already world class, and I'm not aware of any current world-class runner who appears to have sub 2 potential. Maybe Kamwo, but I'm not convinced. I guess there could be some amazing East African 17-yr-old who hasn't hit the world stage yet, but even then, going from debutant to sub 2 within the next 5 years seems like a huge stretch.

I've said it before on other threads, I'll say it again here: Wanjiru is to world-class marathoning what Pre is to American distance running - the great one whose ceiling we'll never know. If anyone we've seen to date could have broken 2, I think it was Wanjiru. Other candidates would be Geb, Bekele and Kipchoge if they had moved to the marathon earlier in their careers.

It's going to need to be a TALL runner. yes I know you dummies think that being short is an advantage in marathoning; it just so happens that most Kenyans are smaller so the obvious result is there is more of a pool of small Kenyans to choose from.

All else equal, being tall means a longer stride and more distance covered at the same effort. For a 2% improvement in time, think of someone taking a 2% longer stride with the same effort and turnover. That would be a taller person.

While heat production could be an issue, remember we're running this in ideal conditions obviously so a 40 degree temperature would eliminate any body heat issues.

Look at those that have made destroyed records in running:

1) Bolt

2) Rudisha

And this man:

3) Kiprop (will break the 1500 record soon and looks like a giant compared to most of his competitors)

A tall genetic Kenyan freak would have a chance to break 2:00.

Imagine Mosop-like guys being his pacer through 30-35K and let that big long stride like Rudisha eat up the distance.

Dkny64 you seem like a bit of a prick.

You're the smartest rtard at the kiddie table .

But what you are forgetting, is that records are set by outliers, by deviants. And the crazy thing is we don't know who, or when, or why an outlier will occur (case in point is the current record holder dennis kimetto). We can only wait. The other thing about records that we forget is that they usually come in quantum leaps (case in point Kimetto again, about 30 seconds). It only takes a few quick outliers to make a couple quantum leaps to take the marathon record below 2 hours. Now how soon will those leaps happen? 3 years? 5? 15? 30? Ever? That's the beauty of being a fan of sport; we get to watch and see.

math nerd wrote:

Lenny Leonard,

I respect your reasons for being a negative nelly. I remain optimistic that it will happen...eventually.

1. I think the event will remain popular and sub-2 only adds to the popularity. There will be money and opportunity for the next 50 years, maybe 100?

2. I believe in innovation. Shoes, training, nutrition, etc. Over time new technology can help endurance.

3. Look at the half marathon records from 30-40 years ago. Crazy to think the full pace is faster than those today.

I don't think it will happen anytime soon, but have some faith that it will happen and could even be within my lifetime.

NYCM is an undulating course run without pacers. How often have the winning times there indicated anything about the potential of the WR being lowered on other, flatter courses? Rarely in the past 35 years. Salazar. Jones. Mutai.

I like what you're saying

1:59.59 is

34s per 200m 68.0 per 400m 4:34.5 per mile 14:13.0 per 5k 28:26 per 10k

2:02.57 is

34.96 per 200m 69.9 per 400m 4:41.5 per mile 14:37.7 per 5k and 29:09.5 per 10k

The first sub 2 hour runner would be 1043 meters ahead of our current world record holder at the finish line.

The difference between a 34 second 200m and a 34.9 second 200m looks like pittance. I am of the mind set that if you can run 34.9 second 200's for 2 hours and 2 minutes, you could probably also run 34 second even 200m's for 2 hours.

give em a good cash prize to keep their focus and that barrier is gone.

Time series anyone? Lots of time series analysis used to estimate swimming world record progressions with a good deal of accuracy over the past 25 years or so. Last I checked, prior to Kimetto's record, we're looking at another 16 to 45 years before a sub 2 hour performance.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

Yeah. I know the course.

In hindsight, it may have been a convoluted premise for a thread. But for some reason the Sub-2 hour marathon people drive me a little bonkers.

The "sub-2 hour people" also drive me a little bonkers. The marathon is much more exciting when it's a race. Sub-2 will come some day (if we don't implode as a society first) but it will be all the more special if it just happens, like Mutai's 2:05 in New York just happened--a pleasant and wonderful surprise. I will not enjoy the first sub-2 if it happens with a phalanx of pace makers in Berlin.