Nick Arciniaga Says 20+ Guys Have the Potential to Run Sub 2:10 at the Trials: How Many Do You think?

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8 years ago 11/01/2015 7:08pm EST

re: sddcsa

Not that I know of....no, not really.

In the above list think Vail can for sure throw down though. Then you've got guys like Llano, Ward, Ritchie, Eggleston to name a few etc.

So looking at the recent half/10km list....there are a legit number of guys with the necessary speed to run around 2:10 or faster.

Will it happen at the Trials (or ever?). Probably not. Trials course is likely to be hilly and with pollution/heat may not be nearly as fast as Houston was. But the speed potential is there....that's all I'm saying in defending Nick's quote which again he was being very generous with and it has likely been taken out of context.

Hopefully Nick will bounce back after a rough day in NYC and run a great race at the Trials!

8 years ago 11/01/2015 8:52pm EST

re: Altitudeguy

Altitudeguy wrote:
I read that Braun held himself back when he ran 2:12 in Houston. He said he started running 4:50s and slowed down because LA went so horribly he just wanted to have a good experience. I also read he only did a 12 mile tempo before that race and his coach said he had at least 60-90 seconds left in the tank at the end of it. Pretty impressive. I think he will turn a lot of heads. I follow his races and he is consistently one of the best road racers on the circuit and has beat most of these guys at different distances in the past 6 months. He has PRs of 101:30, 27:41 and 13:20 which a lot of those other guys dont have. So he has the speed to turn it over when pace changes whereas many of those guys have not broken 28 minutes. I also think Pennel will run a big breakthrough as he has been having a great year on the roads. Obviously the big names will be there but I think that there is going to be an under dog like Braun, Pennel or Ward to pull through those last 6 miles and finish really well. Maybe not make the team but be top 5 or at least be there at the end contending with the veterans. Sometimes not being the veteran is a good thing. When you have run 17 marathons and you keep hoping for that breakthrough imagine how tired you are mentally! I think its gonna be one of these new guys to really shake things up.

I don't want to say anything bad about the guy because yeah he could bust out a 2:08 with those times, but you have to ignore that could have run 60-90s faster crap. You hear about it all the time (race felt easier, didn't even taper, training was poor,....) and you get these expectations that never get met.

Whenever you make the list, you have to remember that like 25% of the list will have a poor training cycle (get injured for part, have some outside issues,..) and 25% will just have a bad day. And most of the others will have decent days but just not quite as good as thier really good day when they set their pr (i.e. they run 30-90s slower). Running a PR in a specific race is always hit or miss.

8 years ago 11/01/2015 11:19pm EST

re: S. Canaday

S. Canaday wrote:
This. Knowing Nick he was probably just being nice.
Sure, any guy that has run a sub 62:30 half *might* have the potential to run a sub 2:10 in the future. Taking the extensive half marathon list into account and others that have run 27-28min for 10km you could (very roughly) extrapolate.
Of course realistically, (esp if the LA course will be hilly), anyone who cracks 2:10 is probably either going to be on the team or very close to making the team.
In the Houston 2012 trials, just over 20 guys broke 2:15. That was a very deep race.
baking soda wrote:
What he said should be understood as nick believes roughly 20 guys have that potential. He threw out that number as a way to compare his ability to others that will show up. He is not saying that many or even one will run 2:10 at the trials. He can't predict weather and the way the race unfolds. What he can do is make a list of people with potential to run 2:10.(this is assuming that there training is going great) You use this as motivation in your training knowing your not heads and shoulders above the field. It is not unreasonable to assume lots of guys have this potential this year.

Sage please do your homework before commenting on a fast or slow course. Is the LA Marathon trials course several loops as mentioned or not and are those loops hilly? Weather in February in LA is reasonable temp wise, biggest issue this year will be the possibility of heavy rain predicted in the El Nino cycle.

8 years ago 11/01/2015 11:45pm EST

re: wejo

I'm not saying Arciniaga is definitely wrong, but I'll go ahead and predict that anyone under 2:10 in LA goes to Rio. I just don't think 4 guys will do it all on the same day.

8 years ago 11/02/2015 6:43pm EST

re: city of angels

city of angels wrote:
I'm not saying Arciniaga is definitely wrong, but I'll go ahead and predict that anyone under 2:10 in LA goes to Rio. I just don't think 4 guys will do it all on the same day.

Look for Ricky Flynn to steal a spot on the team.

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