Nick Arciniaga Says 20+ Guys Have the Potential to Run Sub 2:10 at the Trials: How Many Do You think?

26 currently have an A -sub 2:15=

The statement is crazy. To be clear, it's not "20+ Guys Have the Potential to Run Sub 2:10", it's "20+ Guys Have the Potential to Run Sub 2:10 at the Trials". Trials has been a reasonably fast race recently, but I think a lot of the credit there has to go to Hall. Who do we have that might be pushing the pace in the early to mid sections of the race this year? There is Meb, who is at an age where at any point his performances could take a serious downturn, and Ritz, who tends to fade late and will likely run conservatively. After that, there is no one else. There aren't any track superstars moving up in distance, and there aren't any established marathoners that I think will make the jump to sub-2:10 in the next four months.

There are only four active marathoners that are sub-2:10, two to three of which are about to retire. I would be absolutely shocked if more than three men break 2:10 in February.

Does someone who just ran a 61:23 half have the potential to run sub 2:10?

20 guys having the potentail to run 2:10 at the trials does not suggest 20 guys runing sub 2:10. It means there are 20 guys in the race who if there training has gone well have a chance to run that time. You can debate if that 2:10 is on 2:10 on the trials course (or 2:10 at someplace like London). Obiously some of them will get injuries, some will be having bad days, and so on.

All the 13:30/28:00/62:30 or so guys have potential to run sub 2:10. Most wont'

Add Tim Ritchie...quickly!

Elkanah Kibet

Can't believe no one has mentioned him yet.

After the first 3 places no one needs to run sub 2:09:00 nor will they...Nick has not been around the sport long enough to understand the dynamics of the US Olympic trials 26.2.. potential to do it and doing are two different things. Look at all the great track runners that had the potential to be sub 2:10:00 marathoners and came crawling in at 2:15-2:25

ij;okj;ko wrote:

What times would this crowd say equates to sub 2:10 potential?

The four active sub 2:10 guys' 5 and 10 PRs:

Ritz:

5000 12:56

10,000 27:22

Meb:

5000 13:11

10,000 27:13

Abdi:

5000 13:13

10,000 27:16

Hall:

5000 13:16

10,000 28:07

Are there 20 guys with this type of resume? Benji Durden is the last guy under the 2:10 barrier, couldn't find his 5 and 10 PRs, anyone have a fix on those?

14:10 5000

28:36 10k

43:28 15k

63:11 HM

Either 5-10 PRs tell you little about marathon potential, or the guys (and women) from the late 70s/early 80s had a much better grasp of how to train for marathons.

benji durden fang club wrote:

14:10 5000

28:36 10k

43:28 15k

63:11 HM

Either 5-10 PRs tell you little about marathon potential, or the guys (and women) from the late 70s/early 80s had a much better grasp of how to train for marathons.

Or the said runner didn't run many 5k/10k whne they were in the same shape as their marathon. I don't think there is any 28:36 runner who only runs 14:10. For a prime example of that look at Rupps senior season. 13:38 was a vastly better performance than his 3k (he would have need to run like 12 seconds faster), 10k (like 1 min), or mile (3 seconds). He just had a great day when everything clicked.

There have always been guys with better marathons than 10k times would predict. And a ton of guys with worse

tpenn wrote:

When Hall goes out at 2:05 pace, does the pack follow or do they sit back and laugh?

Have to sit back. Still two places if he doesn't blow up. If two other guys go with him, everybody has to go.

Since 2012 (including the 2012 Trials) there have been 7 sub 2:10 performances:

Ritz x 3

Meb x 2

Hall x 1

Abdi x 1

Xvxbdvdhsjidd wrote:

No one mentioning Tegenkamp?

No one mentioning McCandless?

DOES PERSONAL BRANDING MEAN NOTHING???

This. Knowing Nick he was probably just being nice.Sure, any guy that has run a sub 62:30 half *might* have the potential to run a sub 2:10 in the future. Taking the extensive half marathon list into account and others that have run 27-28min for 10km you could (very roughly) extrapolate.Of course realistically, (esp if the LA course will be hilly), anyone who cracks 2:10 is probably either going to be on the team or very close to making the team.In the Houston 2012 trials, just over 20 guys broke 2:15. That was a very deep race.

baking soda wrote:

What he said should be understood as nick believes roughly 20 guys have that potential. He threw out that number as a way to compare his ability to others that will show up. He is not saying that many or even one will run 2:10 at the trials. He can't predict weather and the way the race unfolds. What he can do is make a list of people with potential to run 2:10.(this is assuming that there training is going great) You use this as motivation in your training knowing your not heads and shoulders above the field. It is not unreasonable to assume lots of guys have this potential this year.

wejo wrote:

Nick also said at the Olympic Marathon Trials he thought there are 20+ guys (20-23 is what I think he said) with the potential to go sub 2:10.

That didn't sound to crazy to me, but others thought it was. What do you think?

If by having the potential to go sub 2:10 he means having a 5% chance of going sub 2:10 in a given marathon then 20 guys with a 5% chance would have an expected value of 1 guy going sub 2:10 and 19 guys having something less than a career day. Doesn't sound entirely unrealistic.

(lots of simplifying assumptions, I know - but basically 20 guys with the potential to go under 2:10 is very different than the potential for 20 guys to go under 2:10)

SouthernFriedRealist wrote:

I agree that there won't be loads of guys pushing sub 2:10 at the Trials because the course isn't fast and with 15+ guys hoping to snag a top three spot, I feel the pace will go somewhat slow until someone makes a move.

The US 20k Champs had several Trials contenders with Puskedra, Chelanga, Pennel, Ritz and Ward running together until the end. No one tried front-running or making any big moves. I see the Trials going the same way for quite some time.

Maybe if Hall had a recent sub 2:10 in him, he would get the pace rolling and the pack would have no choice to follow. But I see this one being rather pedestrian for 15-20 miles.

I would imagine it is going to be a fairly decent pace because the half a dozen guys like Ritz, Vail, Luke and Meb, etc., who are confident they can run 2:12 would be smart to run that pace to at least eliminate the debutantes. There are so many guys who début around 2:15 that you don't want you don't want sub-28 10K and 63 minute half marathon types getting comfortable. To reduce the field to a half a dozen guys, you need to be at a sub-2:12 pace at the 20 mile mark and make it a race from there.

I read that Braun held himself back when he ran 2:12 in Houston. He said he started running 4:50s and slowed down because LA went so horribly he just wanted to have a good experience. I also read he only did a 12 mile tempo before that race and his coach said he had at least 60-90 seconds left in the tank at the end of it. Pretty impressive. I think he will turn a lot of heads. I follow his races and he is consistently one of the best road racers on the circuit and has beat most of these guys at different distances in the past 6 months. He has PRs of 101:30, 27:41 and 13:20 which a lot of those other guys dont have. So he has the speed to turn it over when pace changes whereas many of those guys have not broken 28 minutes. I also think Pennel will run a big breakthrough as he has been having a great year on the roads. Obviously the big names will be there but I think that there is going to be an under dog like Braun, Pennel or Ward to pull through those last 6 miles and finish really well. Maybe not make the team but be top 5 or at least be there at the end contending with the veterans. Sometimes not being the veteran is a good thing. When you have run 17 marathons and you keep hoping for that breakthrough imagine how tired you are mentally! I think its gonna be one of these new guys to really shake things up.

Tyler Mccandless will run 2:09:xx to win the trials.

Everyone will likely follow Meb and Ritz, figuring that they are the guys that know what to do to get it done.

Here are the runners from the Houston Trials that finished over 2:10 and 2:15 or below:

5 Brett Gotcher 27 Flagstaff, AZ McMillan Elite 2:11:06 +1:58

6 Andrew Carlson 29 Chaska, MN Team USA Minnesota 2:11:24 +2:16

7 Fernando Cabada 29 Boulder, CO 2:11:53 +2:45

8 Nick Arciniaga 28 Flagstaff, AZ McMillan Elite 2:11:56 +2:48

9 James Carney 33 Boulder, CO New Balance 2:12:23 +3:15

10 Jimmy Grabow 27 Running Springs, CA adidas Legacy Run Racing 2:12:29 +3:21

11 Ryan Vail 25 Portland, OR Brooks 2:12:43 +3:35

12 Ricky Flynn 24 Lynchburg, VA 2:13:41 +4:33

13 Patrick Rizzo 28 Boulder, CO Mizuno 2:13:42 +4:34

14 Josh Cox 36 Mammoth Lakes, CA 2:13:50 +4:42

15 Ian Burrell 25 Tucson, AZ Boulder Running Company/adidas 2:14:04 +4:56

16 Sean Quigley 26 Braintree, MA Puma 2:14:12 +5:04

17 Mike Morgan 31 Rochester Hills, MI Hansons-Brooks Distance Project 2:14:22 +5:14

18 Jason Lehmkuhle 34 Minneapolis, MN Team USA Minnesota 2:14:35 +5:27

19 Max King 31 Bend, OR Central Oregon Running Klub 2:14:36 +5:28

20 Michael Reneau 33 Saint Paul, MN Twin Cities Track Club 2:14:37 +5:29

21 Drew Polley 26 Rochester Hills, MI Hansons-Brooks Distance Project 2:14:58 +5:50

22 Patrick Smyth 25 Mammoth Lakes, CA Nike 2:15:00 +5:52

Have any of them made significant advancements in the marathon?