Okay, I'll take it several steps further.Bill's 10 mile pr, legitimate, translates roughly to a 1:02:30 half. Call it a 1:02 flat and double it, 2:04. Obviously Bill was not going run anywhere close to that, belief or not. With Bill's 10k pr, someone could have felt their cheerios one day back in perfect conditions and broke 2:08. What was Bill going to do? Suddenly realize I have to go faster and then train harder and produce better results when he was already training as hard as he could?In 1986 Deek broke 2:08 at Boston by 9 seconds. It did not happen again until 1994, Cosmas (check the weather that year and think of Boston 2011).Yes, belief is part of it, no doubt about it, but it only goes so far or one is then claiming that there is no limits (there are). Sub 2, even with drugs or not, is not happening for a long, long time (look at the half world record).Alberto's 2:08:13, whether you believe it or not, was more legitimate than people think. David Katz can believe what he wants as well, but I was there and I have it on tape, Alberto should be given consideration for where he ran on that course. Regardless, it broke serious mental barriers. I myself wrote a long paper about it in 1986, so I do understand the "belief factor". Bob's pr in 1994 was a pr that Bill would have gotten in his day under the same conditions. Look up some of the half way splits that Bill hit during his reign. He was more capable that people believe. When he raced away from Seko in 79', Bill was racing in fair conditions, but not with a stiff tailwind blowing him all the way to Boston like 94' and 2011...huge difference friend. But I also think of a guy like Meyer won Chicago in 2:10:59 in 1982 and no one thought he split the atom, internet hype or not. He then dropped almost 2 minutes, to the second, 6 months later and won Boston. What American does that now? Except for "rare" examples and phenoms at a young age (Hall's 2:06 in London), what American guys who run for clubs, Hanson's, Hudson, etc...run 2:11 and then improve a year later, or even two years later and run 2:09, belief or not, who does that? Heck, Beardsley ran a solo 2:09:37 in 81' at the Grandma's Marathon. Who does that? That time was beaten once and it was by a Kenyan, 2 years ago! In addition, Dick was 24 years old and did not have fast 5 or 10 pr's. How many young guns with more leg speed haven't gotten close to that if belief has a lot to do with it?As I said, belief only goes so far. Hall ran a legit 2:06:17 when he was about 25 years old. I think the American runners have something to chase and believe in and they have for many, many years. Ryan is quite a talent, but besides Dathan, who has gotten with 2 minutes of that time? And yes, there's also some speculation on my part, I admit it, but I think I present a lot of facts as well.
HRE wrote:
Whatever the current world record in an event is has a giant impact on what the next record will be. When Rodgers made his comment no one had run under 2:08 and that had an effect on what he, Seko, etc. believed was possible which had a major effect on what actually was possible. Nothing about Takaoka or Kawauchi is very different from Seko nor Beardsley or Kempainen from Rodgers. They have faster PRs because they ran in an era when they need(ed) 2:06-2:08 to be the best marathoners in Japan and the US. Seko and Rodgers could do that at 2:09-2:10. Put them in an era when people are running 2:07 and I think they'd have run 2:07. But again, it's all speculation.