How would they do in XC?
How would they do in XC?
GD wrote:
How would they do in XC?
they'd be DQd for running female runners in the mens race.
20th-30th or so at NCAAs
GD wrote:
How would they do in XC?
They would qualify for d1 nationals.
They would be in the mix to win a d2 national title. A team of 7x 3:50 1500 runners would blow away most d2 teams.
I think would have a shot of contending for the D1 win. Her 5K goes over to around a 29:34 track 10K. So a team of 7 low 30s XC runners would put up a pretty good fight.
Indoor? wrote:
I think would have a shot of contending for the D1 win. Her 5K goes over to around a 29:34 track 10K. So a team of 7 low 30s XC runners would put up a pretty good fight.
Using a track 5k to convert to XC 10k is a little generous, particularly given GD's actual performance in long course XC.
GD ran a 25:36 8k for 9th place at the 2011 World XC champs on a pretty fast course.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_IAAF_World_Cross_Country_ChampionshipsA team of 25:3X 8k/ 32 low 10 runners would not qualify for DI nationals, even from some of the "weaker" regions. Seven 25:30 8kers would also be beaten soundly by NorthCentral, Adams State, and others in the DII and DIII ranks.
Maybe GD is a lot better at XC now than she was in 2011 but we don't have any real evidence of that.
Hard to say because XC is a different beast from track. 3:50 means very little for 10k XC. But she seems ready for 14:0x, and 7 of those usually is enough to qualify for nats. On the other hand again, a lot of 14:0x types who specialize in track end up not doing much special in cross. It really helps to be a strength runner. I don't know enough abut her to guess an 8k or 10k XC time on the kind of courses d1 men run.
Another issue is that you can't place well at the dance without some low sticks. So if the team made nats, probably all the Dibabas would score 120 points each and end up 25th or worse. Depth only gets you so far.
So you made fun of him for saying a 29:30's 10k runner would run low 30's for 10k in XC, but you follow it with a worse figure comparing her 2011 fitness to current fitness....
2011 she ran 4:05 for 1500! She wasn't much better than Molly Huddle at that point in her career.
4 years later you have 3:50 and 14:15 with the possibility of sub 14 before the season ends. You can't rationally compare her form in 2011 to her current GOAT standard setting season.
How many D1 schools had their 7th man run faster than 14:15 at 5k this year? There is a chance not a single school did. She could possibly make any D1 men's team in the country currently which is amazing.
She is a 2x World CC Junior Champ.. I don't think cross country is a weak spot for her.
Stupid is stupid does wrote:
So you made fun of him for saying a 29:30's 10k runner would run low 30's for 10k in XC, but you follow it with a worse figure comparing her 2011 fitness to current fitness....
2011 she ran 4:05 for 1500! She wasn't much better than Molly Huddle at that point in her career.
4 years later you have 3:50 and 14:15 with the possibility of sub 14 before the season ends. You can't rationally compare her form in 2011 to her current GOAT standard setting season.
How many D1 schools had their 7th man run faster than 14:15 at 5k this year? There is a chance not a single school did. She could possibly make any D1 men's team in the country currently which is amazing.
Maybe some letsrunner out there can figure out which team had the fastest 7th man based on track prod at nationals
No low sticks. A team full of 40-80 place finishers at NCs isn't going to get it done.
She beat Meseret Defar in a 3K cross country race just two years ago. Dominated the race. Watch:
D1? If she went 40th, 50th, 60th, 70th, and 80th
Team score would have been 248 points and been 9th overall
Those finishers 1500/5k PR's
40th 3:48/14:00 (with perfect pacing very comparable to GB's current fitness)
50th 3:43 (didn't have a 5k PR)
60th 3:39/14:16 (obviously a 1500 meter focused athlete but slower than GD at 5k so in XC they may be very close)
70th 3:43/13:48 (certainly better than GD)
80th 4:05mi/14:31 (GD could beat potentially him at any distance on the track and most likely on XC as well)
Based on that relative small sampling I would say a team with 7 GD's could finish between 7-12th at NCAA's in D1.. Pretty tough in D1, but there is not doubt 7 GD's could finish in the top 80 and compete for the top 10 placing.
D2? Going 10th, 20th 30th, 40th, 50th she would score 128 points and finish 1 place out of 2nd. Honestly I think once you see what it takes to score 128 there is no doubt she would beat that team and come close to Adam's for first...
Those finishers 1500/5k/10k PR's (there 1500k/5k's PR's were so bad I had to add in 10k to show how good GD would be in D2)
10th 4:01/14:43/29:52
20th 4:23mi/14:41/30:47
30th No Track Times so 31st 4:39mi/14:47/30:52
40th No Track Times so 41st 3:59/14:21/30:33
50th 3:52/14:30
Based on their performances she is far superior to any of those athletes and kinda shows how big of a disparity there is between D1 and D2
D3? Even worse I originally did the PR's of 1-5, but places 2nd, 3rd, and 4th haven't ran track for their schools yet. North Central won with 130 points and on any given day based on the PR's for the top 8 if you ran 7 GD's in the same fitness they would all be top 10 and score close to 15-25 points. Yes there is a chance she could sweep D3's and score a perfect 15
1st 3:48/14:14
5th 14:22/29:45
6th 3:52/14:10/ 29:48
7th 4:00/14:23/30:10
8th 14:30/30:17
She could beat any one of these guys on any given day.
I think your comparisons to track times are skewed. You should've kept going for more data.
90th place 3:51 / 14:11 / 29:27
100th place 3:45 / 13:45
110th place 13:57 / 29:06
120th place 14:26 / 29:35
130th place 3:49 / 14:03
140th place 3:46 / 8:42steeple
150th place 3:54 / 14:10 / 29:44
160th place 4:05mi / 8:02 3k
170th place 4:03mi / 13:59
And its not like these guys all run their PRs in nice rabbited conditions. The only conclusion I can see is track times don't predict XC too great. But everyone we listed from 40th to 170th has a better PR than Dibaba in some event except one guy. So I don't think "easily top 80" is justified.
Some good analysis here but a team of diababa's could run for the d1 win.
A pack of 7x 3:50/14:00 is going to finish like a centipede and take up 7 consecutive places. Realistically she could run around 29:00 10k.
Let's look at Colorado and Stanfords top 5 based on 2014 track prs
Moussa 5th 30:29- 13:56/30:01
Saarel 7th 30:31- 13:48
Theroux 9th 30:31- 13:57
Winter 24th 30:45- 13:55
Murphy 35th 30:51- 13:48/29:36
Korolev 9th 30:29- 13:42/29:13
Mcgorty 20th 30:41- 13:37
Atchoo 29th 30:47- 14:06
Rosa 33rd 30:51- 13:31/29:16
Wharton 39th 30:55- 14:04
Now let's say Diababa is also capable of 29:00 track 10k. She could realistically take up 10th-17th and would be d1 champ.
She's definitely in the discussion to win.
In the Hunt wrote:
Realistically she could run around 29:00 10k.
Now let's say Diababa is also capable of 29:00 track 10k. She could realistically take up 10th-17th and would be d1 champ.
She's definitely in the discussion to win.
In what universe is DIbaba capable of running 31 seconds faster than the world record in the 10k, and below a world record that has seemed so untouchable for so long?
huhhhhcch wrote:
In the Hunt wrote:Realistically she could run around 29:00 10k.
Now let's say Diababa is also capable of 29:00 track 10k. She could realistically take up 10th-17th and would be d1 champ.
She's definitely in the discussion to win.
In what universe is DIbaba capable of running 31 seconds faster than the world record in the 10k, and below a world record that has seemed so untouchable for so long?
She DESTROYED the 1500 WR which was doped and run on a short track. A well trained 10000m runner can run a 10k double their 5k time plus a minute(or less). If she's in the 29 min neighborhood on the track she's perfectly capable of running sub 30:30 xc.
Colorado and Stanford go home DEVISTATED!!!!
There are slews of 3:50 men on the track that finish in the 50s and 60s of their REGIONAL meets. She wouldn't be in the top 15 of a regional meet, and without a low stick, your shot at making NCAAs becomes slim.
Stupid is stupid does wrote:Yes there is a chance she could sweep D3's and score a perfect 15
1st 3:48/14:14
5th 14:22/29:45
6th 3:52/14:10/ 29:48
7th 4:00/14:23/30:10
8th 14:30/30:17
She could beat any one of these guys on any given day.
You're not serious are you? She wouldn't win D3's EVER.
Here's a thread I started back in 2009 I believe, that asks a similar question:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3263941&page=0
"1. On any of the most well-known cross country courses used for high school cross county championships, how would the current best five on your high school boy's team perform in a two-team meet against this team of women when each was at their peak?
Junxia Wang 29:31.78 10,000 meters world record
Yunxia Qu 3:50.46 1,500 meters world record
Meseret Defar 29:59.20 outdoor 10,000 meters
Tirunesh Dibaba 14:11.15 5,000 meters world record
Paula Radcliffe 2:15:25 marathon world record
2. How would the studs on your high school team feel running their best, even PRing, and still loosing outright to a team of women?
For the sake of argument, let's assume these incredible world-record-holding women racers taunt your team's boys before, during and after the race."
In 2015, would replacing Tirunesh with her sister Genzebe make the team even stronger?
There were some good replies to this thread back in '09, and it's still an interesting question.