1. He led Jairus by 1.9 seconds before falling on the barrier. He would have run 7:56.x had he not fallen (Jairus ran 7:58.83).
2. The run was in 89 degree heat. Not optimal for anything above 800m
3. The pacing was good (7:57 is 2:39 per k and they hit 2:37, 2:40 with the rabbit)
3. Now I know you people are wondering what this means for his ability at 5000m, and the fact is, HE WOULD BE ABLE TO GO SUB 12:50. If you don't believe me, Shaheen was in 12:40 shape according to Renato when he was in 7:51-7:53 steeple shape. While in similarly better 1500m shape (3:30 to Jager's 3:31-3:32 right now).
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I mean lets see Jager break 13 first before we start talking about CRUSHING the AR and running sub 12:50
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Did djej wrote:
2. The run was in 89 degree heat. Not optimal for anything above 800m
).
Wrong. It was 85, in the shade, dew point 63. Just a delightful opportunity to run fast. -
If he had got up just a little quicker he still could have broken 8 minutes.
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You're assuming Jager would have closed off the last barrier as fast as Birech, when in fact he was tying up which led to his fall. If Jager had not fallen, Birech would have closed much faster than Jager. His 10 meter lead off the barrier would probably have been 5 (or less) by the line. 7:57 high or 7:58 low for Jager.
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Les wrote:
You're assuming Jager would have closed off the last barrier as fast as Birech, when in fact he was tying up which led to his fall. If Jager had not fallen, Birech would have closed much faster than Jager. His 10 meter lead off the barrier would probably have been 5 (or less) by the line. 7:57 high or 7:58 low for Jager.
I watched the same video that you saw, your description doesn't match. Jager simply jammed his foot wrong and stumbled. Shit happens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOFZ93GsfQk -
malmo wrote:
Les wrote:
You're assuming Jager would have closed off the last barrier as fast as Birech, when in fact he was tying up which led to his fall. If Jager had not fallen, Birech would have closed much faster than Jager. His 10 meter lead off the barrier would probably have been 5 (or less) by the line. 7:57 high or 7:58 low for Jager.
I watched the same video that you saw, your description doesn't match. Jager simply jammed his foot wrong and stumbled. Shit happens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOFZ93GsfQk
Yeah I noticed this, he didn't clip the hurdle, he went straight over, he just landed wrong -
Nice Devon Loch finish.
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Just goes to show - "It's how you get up..... that matters!"
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Did djej wrote:
1. He led Jairus by 1.9 seconds before falling on the barrier. He would have run 7:56.x had he not fallen (Jairus ran 7:58.83)...
7:57-7:58. Watch Jairus' big sprint, that Jager's never shown. At USATF, If Manzano fell with 100m left, would it be correct to assume him maintaining 2 seconds ahead of Andrews? And Manzano's a Silver Medal finisher.
Have to watch all of it. By the same token, if Jairus rigged huge, then we'd subtract more than 1.9 seconds. -
Who looked fresher after the race, Jager or Birech? In any case, whatever the reason for Jager's fall, fatigue or miscalculation, I still maintain Birech would have closed faster to the line. Also, guys with a clear lead like Jager had tend to let up the last couple strides whereas chasers tend to run through the line. The point is, people saying 7:55 or 56 are way off the mark.
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I guess some of those were at least partially facts...
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Les wrote:
Who looked fresher after the race, Jager or Birech? In any case, whatever the reason for Jager's fall, fatigue or miscalculation, I still maintain Birech would have closed faster to the line. Also, guys with a clear lead like Jager had tend to let up the last couple strides whereas chasers tend to run through the line. The point is, people saying 7:55 or 56 are way off the mark.
No.
7:56. -
Les wrote:
You're assuming Jager would have closed off the last barrier as fast as Birech, when in fact he was tying up which led to his fall. If Jager had not fallen, Birech would have closed much faster than Jager. His 10 meter lead off the barrier would probably have been 5 (or less) by the line. 7:57 high or 7:58 low for Jager.
Exactly. Think a little, people.
Jager was 1.9 seconds ahead of the winner, who ran 7:58.83 with a mad sprint, that Jager has never shown.
7:55 would mean Jager sprinted 1-2 seconds faster than the winner, in the last 80m alone. Jager doesn't even sprint that fast, much less faster. -
why are we arguing about 1 or 2 seconds?
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Landed wrong on very tired legs. Gutsy run. Great race with the fall.
Wonderful call from the British announcer. -
Did djej wrote:
1. He led Jairus by 1.9 seconds before falling on the barrier.
He didn´t fall on the barrier. He tripped when he landed. -
reader of the forums wrote:
No.
7:56.
Agree. He clipped the toe of his trail leg (as he noted in the interviews). He was at 7:47.2 as he cleared the last barrier. 9.5 seconds from there to the line (very likely he could have done that) and he would have 7:56.7.
Going to be a pleasure to watch him go under 8. No one has ever come close to 8-flat in a race where they hit the track. "Impressive" falls short, I'm not even sure what to call it! -
I think this was a great run. One of the best US runs in years. I don't see why people are debating the time. It is the steeple. This is like saying LoLo Jones would have been Olympic champ if she did not hit a hurdle. The whole point is that there are barriers and people stumble or fall. As much as we want to give him a better time, it is pointless. He ran 8:00 and raced really well. He could medal.
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ttc wrote:
Les wrote:
You're assuming Jager would have closed off the last barrier as fast as Birech, when in fact he was tying up which led to his fall. If Jager had not fallen, Birech would have closed much faster than Jager. His 10 meter lead off the barrier would probably have been 5 (or less) by the line. 7:57 high or 7:58 low for Jager.
Exactly. Think a little, people.
Jager was 1.9 seconds ahead of the winner, who ran 7:58.83 with a mad sprint, that Jager has never shown.
7:55 would mean Jager sprinted 1-2 seconds faster than the winner, in the last 80m alone. Jager doesn't even sprint that fast, much less faster.
This ^
Without that stumble he would almost certainly have finished at 7:57.xx There is no way he was going to sprint as quickly as Birech did in those last meters so his lead would have been less than the 1.9 seconds he had at the hurdle. On the other hand, Birech was not going to catch Jager in this race without the stumble.
Most likely 7:57 high. Best case 7:57 low.
