anacondarunner wrote:
1) Salazar has had a prescription for Androgel for as long as he's been coaching Rupp.
2) Salazar knows exactly how much Androgel he can use on an athlete without triggering a positive test, as a result of his "sabotage experiment".
3) Salazar has displayed a strong interest in raising the testosterone levels of his athletes, as seen in his full-on embrace of supplements like Testoboost, Alpha Male, and ZMA.
4) Salazar has been known to massage his athletes from time to time, despite the fact that he had professional massage therapists on staff.
5) Salazar frequently shared a room with Rupp, including in Park City, where we know Androgel was present.
Based on all of this, it seems ridiculous to think that Salazar wasn't administering testosterone to at least some of his athletes, particularly Rupp.
This is a good overall summary. Here is my analysis:
A. High probability of illegal and WADA prohibited use of testosterone for recovery: The Androgel, testing on his son, and overall long term arc of the NOP strategy (understanding that long term gains come from incremental improvements and recovery over the long term) make me think that testosterone was used as a recovery aid up until a few years ago.
B. High probability of WADA prohibited and unethical use of prescription medications to gain competitive advantage: He is going to get hit for suggesting his athletes use Advair in a way that was not prescribed or according to manufacturers instructions. While he wanted glucocorticoid effect, but it is going to be the salmeterol which gets him because it requires a TUE above certain dosages. Multiple athletes will go on the record to USADA to confirm this.
C. High probability of unethical but not prohibited or illegal use of prescription medications, supplements and TUEs to gain competitive advantage: While Salazar was careful to note the incidence of his athletes being diagnosed with asthma and hypothyroidism wasn't crazy high, the prevalence of his athletes with these diagnoses will be very high (e.g. Levins was careful to note he was conveniently diagnosed with asthma just prior to starting with NOP). His use of Testoboost etc while not illegal is considered unethical among many pros.
D. High probability that Rupp is the only athlete that crossed the illegal threshold in using testosterone: They have a unique relationship (as the massages demonstrate) and Rupp is Salazar's pet project. NOP was set up to create American domination of distance running. Farah is a tool to help push Rupp. Thus, Salazar would never risk Rupp or NOP with any other athlete since Rupp is "the chosen one."
E. High probability that Rupp does not know 100% testosterone was used: Salazar wouldn't want Rupp to know he was cheating - the psychological burden might impede performance. Thus, the massages seem like a very likely time that Androgel was administered. The timing would be perfect to maximize recovery benefit and could be administered in a way to ensure Rupp wasn't fully aware.
F. Low probability of use of EPO, anabolic steroids, HGH or autologous blood transfusions: Too risky and obvious, and Salazar knows first hand that while these will help for short term boosts, they present long term risks (e.g. having cardiac arrest etc). The NOP has a 15 year plan for Rupp, so recovery is more important than getting a single race or season bump from blood doping.
G. Low probability athletes other than Rupp were given testosterone illegally: Salazar created NOP for Rupp. He wouldn't take the risk on anyone else.
ASSESSMENT: Salazar likely took on all of the risk of testosterone use as a recovery aid so that Rupp would have plausible deniability. Thus, I suspect there will be no direct evidence against Rupp or Salazar so USADA will not be able to take action. He will get in trouble for testing testosterone on his son because it was illegal (his son did not have a prescription) and his son was a support employee of NOP which is very suspicious and may trigger a WADA/USADA penalty. He will also get in trouble for suggesting athletes use inhalers in ways that weren't prescribed, thus violating TUE on salmeterol (a component of Advair - ironically, it seems that Salazar wanted athletes to get the glucocorticoid effect but this overdose of salmeterol is going to get him). There are likely multiple athletes who will testify to USADA that Salazar suggested using Advair/salmeterol in a way that violates TUEs. Finally, it will be clear to USADA that Salazar violated the spirit and ethics of sport with his use of prescription medications and supplements, but no action will be taken for this non-illegal activity.
SUMMARY: Salazar will be found to have illegally used testosterone on his son and in violation of WADA rules for using a medication in a prohibited way on an employee of NOP. He will be found to have recommended the use of salmeterol in a prohibited way without at TUE. He will be found to have violated the spirit and ethics of clean sport.
NOTE: The biggest outstanding question is whether there is a smoking gun. Farah and Rupp would never squeal, but Ritz might. If Salazar ever used testosterone to help Ritz recover and Ritz knew about it, he will tell USADA and Salazar will really go down.