I believe his solo 4:07 in Cedar Springs was a 1600m, so it was more like 4:08/4:09 for the mile. Also - past performances in X conditions do not always equate to expected performances in Y conditions. I agree that Brazier's XC performances, indoor performances, early season 4:09, etc seem to indicate that he could be in 4:00-4:02 shape. With that said, his 1:48 with huge negative splits (55.6-52.9 or something crazy like that) seemed to indicate that Granville's record was in serious jeopardy (as an aside, 1:47.55 certainly wasn't a disappointment). Fisher's XC credentials, sub-4 mile, and blazing finish in last year's Brooks meet seemed to indicate that mid-8:30s and the win were foregone conclusions. Anyways, you get my gist. While sub-4:05 seems safe to assume for Donavan, I am not so sure about anything faster.
Hopalong wrote:
The people who say Brazier couldn't run under 4:00 are vastly underestimating him. He ran 4:07 earlier this year and won the race by 15-20 seconds. He has not been pushed. He had a very good cross country season last fall - he's not just a sprinter. He's got distance cred too. He should have been invited to the Dream Mile. He could very well have won it.