Emma Bates - Total Disaster!!

"Obviously it was going to fail!" Wow bigtool5 you must really enjoy mediocrity.

Joking aside...

How would you describe Soratos trying to break Ches at NCAA indoors? Dropping a 53.5 (faster than his 800m pace) about 600m into the race isn't much different than what Bates did but he's a hero because he held it together a bit better.

Winning races involves both strategy and execution. So lets start with strategy. Is making a move early to draw out someone's kick a common race strategy? Yes. Does it work? Sometimes. I would say that it is less and less successful as the competition level goes up.

Now execution. What is the best way to ensure that a strategy like this is successful? Practice. This is the part of the equation that I know nothing about. Does Emma do 2k repeats where she runs (80,68,80,80,80)? I haven't a clue. If you are Emma's coach would you try this in practice before sending your runner to do it at a national championship? I sure hope so!

Would I advise Emma to drop a 66 with a mile to go when you are really only worried about Scott beating you? Yes, but more like a 68 and only if she had practiced it.

To be clear, when runners make mistakes like Webb did in 2005 or what Julia Lucas did at the trials, it is usually related to: 1) Bad strategy/Coaching, 2) Impatience or 3) Poor execution. These athletes are professionals with professional coaches, and I expect better.

Her coach didn't tell her to run a 66. He actually wanted her to run a 70 to try and take apart Scott's kick

Still can't freaking believe Allie Ostrander picked Boise State over Oregon what was she thinking? oh well GO DUCKS

The move was either mistimed, or 10 seconds too fast, in either case a very bad move and strategy.

Much better would have been to simply keep building up the pace and run hard the last mile / 2000 meters.

C Parker wrote:

Her coach didn't tell her to run a 66. He actually wanted her to run a 70 to try and take apart Scott's kick

Let me factually correct you. That's not true at all. Bates specfiically said her coach said 68 (or faster). He was adamant that it not be run in 70.

Listen for yourself here:

At the beginning of the video, she talks about her coach wanted a 68. At the 1:45 mark, she says, "He told me loike 68 or 65, do not run a 70."

Moving on.

I respect Bates BIG TIME a) for going gor it and b) for coming into the media tent and answering everything when it didn't work out.. I've seen far too many people - skip out on the mixed zone over the years.

The fact of the matter is for years we've just ripped every male distance runner for just slowly suffocating themselves by letting the 5000s and 10000s come down to a kick with Mo Farah. WE've begged someone to make a race of it.

Bates DID THAT AND more. He move was so bold we thought she might have mistimed the laps. All or nothing. In hindsight, it's easy to say it wasn't necessary as Scott looked tired. But Scott was totally focused on Bates. Bates' move was so big and decisive that it seemed as if Scott herself momentarily packed it in and thought, "It's over. I can't touch that."

Then when Bates started to crater it was too late for Scott to respond. Scott did rally from 7th to 2nd. So if Bates doesn't make the big move and Scott stays in the lead pack, would she have had enough to outkick them all? I don't know.

But if Bates does what every male guy in the world has done with Farah, waited untilt he end and lost, we'd all be sitting her typing, "What in the world was she thinking?"

For years, as fans of distance running, we've BEGGED someone to do something like this. MEGA MEGA PROPS TO EMMA BATES. I HOPE SHE GETS A NICE CONTRACT.

skinnystiks wrote:

"Obviously it was going to fail!" Wow bigtool5 you must really enjoy mediocrity.

Criticizing someone for grossly underperforming means I "enjoy mediocrity"? You know she would have placed higher if she hadn't done that, right? She may even have won. I mean I totally get the idea behind the strategy. It's a tough one to pull off, but it can work if it's executed well. Bates executed it extremely poorly and cost herself a lot of places as a result. Nothing to be celebrated.

rojo wrote:

C Parker wrote:

Her coach didn't tell her to run a 66. He actually wanted her to run a 70 to try and take apart Scott's kick

Let me factually correct you. That's not true at all. Bates specfiically said her coach said 68 (or faster). He was adamant that it not be run in 70.

Listen for yourself here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHylkvVpB0w

At the beginning of the video, she talks about her coach wanted a 68. At the 1:45 mark, she says, "He told me loike 68 or 65, do not run a 70."

If that was his advice, that is problematic. There is a HUGE difference between how your body will respond to a 65 versus a 68 versus a 70 at that stage in the race. Maybe Bates was just being vague, or conversational, but if Ihmels really gave such a range it suggests a lack of understanding of the potential consequences of such a strategy and that they didnt practice the strategy beforehand. 65 is pretty damn fast to ask for one mile out, especially considering no one in the field ran a lap faster than 69 besides Bates's 66.

In theory, I agree with the strategy (though would prefer a grind from 75 to 72 to 69 or something like that more, considering they were running 80s and 82s), but not the direction (dont give a range, give a specific lap that has been practiced) or the execution (if given a range, know that going from 80/82 to 66 is going to be a pretty big shock to you too). Sure it was dramatic and can be defended as necessary to "go for the win," but it seems it also was not a recipe for success given how it was instructed and executed.

Gotta be honest, I have a lot of respect for her. You guys know how hard it is to throw down that far out and then try to hold on? Most people's brains keep them from even trying such a wild attack. I thought it was brilliant, she just couldn't hang on. But she's got some serious ovaries!!

For me her plan was sound but her execution was poor. A 66 and such a fast burst through the bell at was destined to end badly. A more gradual but still definite increase in pace & intensity could have worked better, and probably wouldn't have resulted in 11th.

http://goo.gl/hyr98B

[quote]Baconn wrote:

[quote]Lenny Leonard wrote:

2. Also, show me one example of a successful race where someone "took the kick out of" a speedier runner, without sacrificing their own finish in the process.

[/quote

Ummmm.....ever heard of Lasse Viren? 5k Montreal 76? All distance runners should be required to memorize that race.

Anyway, too much analysis and criticism here. Emma simply misjudged that lap in the excitement. We've all done it.

It's OK Emma. You're still HAWT.

rojo wrote:

But if Bates does what every male guy in the world has done with Farah, waited untilt he end and lost, we'd all be sitting her typing, "What in the world was she thinking?"

Yeah but you're drawing a false dichotomy here. Making a bold move and "making a race of it" doesn't mean you have to drop a 66 with a mile out when your pr is like freaking 32:30. I mean what the f*ck was her coach thinking? I bet even a 29:30 guy would have trouble dropping a 66 like that. I mean what's the logic here? What did they think was going to happen?

Coach Rx wrote:

Looks to me like she made a common mistake. Had a strategy going into the race and stuck to it no matter what. I haven't seen that work too often. Better to have a sense of the competition and be ready to change depending on how the race goes and how you feel.

I've never seen a proven very good runner completely crawl after a surge that lasted like 300 meters... She was toast

The girl is legit and has had a great NCAA career. You need to know from training and experience what you can handle though

Under the warm, windy conditions, 66 was closer in effort to her 800 pace than 1500. Also, it matters whether she bolted out or built into it (didn't see the race and sounds like it was missed by the TV).

There are much better strategies she could have used, such as alternating 70/75s for the last mile and kicking hard the last lap.

Great job by Molly in seizing the opportunity though.

The thing to practice is going hard AND EVEN for the last mile or 2k or whatever. You don't want to waste an ounce of energy, because that would quickly give the advantage to those who are following. Instead of that, run as hard and EVEN as possible, so you don't slow down any at the end. Run like Komen ran his 3k WR. That's the way to do it. The best finishes long finishes over 10ks have been either very hard and even the last 2k or so, or else going hard and very gradually increasing the pace like Viren did in his 10k WR.

Hand Of Fate wrote:

Under the warm, windy conditions, 66 was closer in effort to her 800 pace than 1500. Also, it matters whether she bolted out or built into it (didn't see the race and sounds like it was missed by the TV).

There are much better strategies she could have used, such as alternating 70/75s for the last mile and kicking hard the last lap.

Great job by Molly in seizing the opportunity though.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if she ran that first 100 in like 15 seconds (60sec 400 pace). She really took off.

I think it was a combination of going a little too hard and misjudging what she really had left in that heat that killed her. Still doubt she could have beat Molly Seidel no matter what her strategy was. Seidel looked very strong at the end

And I honestly don't get why that is the move she had to take the kick out. Why not just make it an honest pace from the beginning? Or just push the last 5k? Or the last 2 miles? Why would a 10k runner who can't handle the speed all of a sudden run a lap at that speed that she can't handle?

Coach Rx wrote:

Looks to me like she made a common mistake. Had a strategy going into the race and stuck to it no matter what. I haven't seen that work too often. Better to have a sense of the competition and be ready to change depending on how the race goes and how you feel.

That wasn't the problem.

The problem was she DEVIATED from the strategy, running a 66 instead of a 68.

where's the replay? wrote:

This thread is useless without video.

No, it's not.

Perhaps you are an idiot.

ackack wrote:

Ummmm.....ever heard of Lasse Viren? 5k Montreal 76? All distance runners should be required to memorize that race.

Help us. Post a link.