Kenenisa in 26:17 Form Could Run 2:00:36? So Say MIT Guys

And also, no one has claimed that if you can run 26:20, then your marathon potential should be about 2:00:36. I have to assume you have not even started to comprehend the topic going on here.

Your point is wrong. You keep basing your argument on false premises.

Wanjiru was far from 2 because he never tried to run a fast time. He was always running tactical marathons. He also never did any 10k races during his marathon activity, so he is not an example of a mid-26 10k runner training for the marathon in the peak of his career. He never showed any evidence of still being in mid-26 shape after moving to the marathon. He ran his marathon pr FOUR years after his 10k PR. You can't claim that he was still a mid-26 guy during his marathon career. No one knows what 10k shape he was in.

Do you not see that error in your premises?

Why couldn't a 26:20 guy run 2:00:36 a few weeks later? How slow do you think a 2:00:36 guy would be in a 10k???

The researchers are even able to make predictions about individual athletes. One of these is Kenenisa Bekele, an Ethiopian long-distance runner who holds the world records at both 5,000 meters and 10,000 meters. Blythe and Király say their model predicts that Bekele should be able to run a marathon in 2:00:36, almost three minutes faster than the current world record.

That is the point I was arguing against. I don't think that's right and its based off the evidence of current runners with similar PBs, attempts at the Marathon, and the training needed to be competitive. The model assumes 10k speed can be carried all the way til Marathon distance, which historically speaking is incorrect. The whole thread is based off analyzing that prediction, with minor talk about the Mo vs Bolt race.

Please don't act like reading is hard. Its a debate over a model predicting performance of K.Bekele.

Amerikano wrote:

The model assumes 10k speed can be carried all the way til Marathon distance, which historically speaking is incorrect.

Why do you keep using this false premise for your argument? It is not historically incorrect. Haile, Bekele, Wanjiru, and Mo ran the marathon YEARS after their 10k times. No one knows what 10k shape they were in.

Amerikano wrote:

The model assumes 10k speed can be carried all the way til Marathon distance, which historically speaking is incorrect.

No it does not.

You obviously failed to read beyond the thread title. Please at least attempt to understand the research going on here before commenting on it.

Bolt would win anything under 500m. He would feel comfortable cruising through 400m in 47 or so and Mo would be almost flat out in 49. Bolt would just have to hang on Mo would have nothing left to respond with. 550m would be the distance. Bolt would have to hold back a lot more and wouldnt run as efficiently at the slower 50 second plus rhythm and would fade into the hands of Mo.Amazing though to think a 2.07 guy could beat Bolt over 551m.

The algorithm is based of 150,000 normal runners who did amateur training, then competed in either a 5k, 10k, and Marathon. The correlation is between normal athletes, not elite.

It was form-fitted to the best ever 5k/10k trained athlete who is paced in European circuits to predict a performance that is quite a ways beyond the current human limits.

So is it wrong to start to use qualitative analysis to analyze why this does not sound right?

If we look at the current constraints of the study, all three performances were from a 1-year timeline.

1) K.Bekele was actually better at the 5k/10k then the average 150,000 could perform to their potential. Meaning, if the 150,000 had WR bonuses, pacers, crowd support, organized training, it would make a difference in how much better that performance would be. K.Bekele's strength of performance is better than the "average" by a long way

2) If we only have 1 year to actualize this performance, this means K.Bekele has to turn 26:17 to 2:00:36 by 2006. Any longer, and the athlete loses their predictive measure of how their 5k/10k PB correlate

Now lets look at the qualitative evidence.

Haile Gebre - In 2002, he attempts his first Marathon in 2:06 (2nd place). In 2003, he runs a 26:29 and also closes a sub 27:00 in under 13'. He starts doing the Marathon again in 2005, only running 2'06 again. There really isn't any evidence that 2:00:32 was in the ball park

Sammy Wanjiru - Runs 26:41 in 2005 as a WJR. Never attempts the distance again, but lowers a HM record to 58:33 by 2006 (signs of improvement). In 2007 & 2008, he runs 2:06 & 2:05 (2nd place).

Mo Farah - Runs 3:28, wins double gold in 5k/10k. Never actually attempts a fast pace competition in 2013. In any case, capable of at least 26:45 & 12:50. First race is 2:08.

Haile Gebre 2002-2003

12:50 > 26:29 > 2:06

Sammy W 2005-2007

26:41>58:33>2:06

Mo Farah 2013-2014

3:28>12:50>26:45>2:08

And somehow, K Bekele 2005-2006

3:32>12:37>26:17> 2:00:23

I didn't misunderstand the reseach, I just think there's a misunderstanding of the Marathon in this study. The whole study is interesting, but Bekele isn't running 6 minutes faster than Geb & Sammy.

few doubt his peking shape was maybe 2"02'30 / 2"03-flat if run in berlin

that is still long way from 2"00+

no

he ran 26'41pb when aged 18y & looking at vid, his face looks about 16y !!!

he went of suicidally quick trying to hang with the kennster & went thru 6k at 26'16 pace !!!

if he'd not been so ambitious that day & ran sensible splits, rather than suicidal 13'09 / 13'32, he wouda run

~ 26'30 / 26'35

that day at a nominal 18y ole

there is no way this 10k speed got worse from aged 18y when training for 1/2M to 20y when just by natural maturation he wouda expected some improved 10k speed

his 1/2M WR is still better than tadesse's intrinsically as latter had pacing help & sammy ran it as pretty much a solo run

the only reason sammy stopped running track was that he got achilles pain when running on the oval & was forced to run the roads

it was not a decision he maya been all that keen on, but he was "helped" to this decsision by japanese coach who was much more interested in road than track

this was ~ 10y ago at a time when most knowlegeable posters reckoned 19y was too young an age to move to 1/2M !!!

it still is !!!

at that age, you can't build up enough career accumulated mileage, so any 1/2M has to be primarily off your 10k ability at the time

sammy was probably in 26'15 - 26'25 shape in peking

he probably still woudn't have beaten kennster, but wouda given him helluva race

no real error in guy's post

2"00+ is so damn fast you can't contemplate it without some incredible intrinsic basic 10k speed

when geb ran 2"04+ wr he ran 26'52 that same year

i saw splits for that race & it was a jog to 9k - they were on for 27'00++ at 9k & just murdered that last 1k

if they had had any kinda reasonable pace thruout that race, geb wouda run close to 26'40

( hermens said he was "amazed" at that 26'52 as he said geb had done virtually no track work for it - he reckoned geb couda run 26'30 if he'd actually done a few track training sessions for it

)

, as woud 4 guys who beat him

so, realistically 2"04+ = ~ 26'40

using geb as template, anyone running 2"00+ woud have to have intrinsic

~ 25'50++/26-flat

ventolin^3 wrote:for longer track distances, all on track :

27'00.00 = 59'12 = 2"09'12

correction :

i got 27'00 & 28'00 lines mixed up

28'00.00 = 61'18 = 2"09'12

27'00.00 = 59'12 = 2"04'58

some interesting equivalents, all for runs on track

60'00 = 27'22 = 2"06'34

59'00 = 26'53 = 2"04'47

2"02'57 = 58'12 = 26'31

I see that renato has emphatically debunked ventolins claim that top marathoners are in 26-30 10,000 shape

I see that ventolin is also unsurprisingly persisting with this myth

Dear No Amerikano,

For an answer to this criticism please see my post on page of this feed,

Page 4

Dear Amerikano,

We can think about the hidden assumptions which are likely to lie behind the data. We need athletes who have tried e.g. 5km, 10km and Mar. in one year.

Which athletes are these --- or which distance are they training for primarily?

It is likely these are athletes who are training for the Marathon and compete in the shorter distance as sharpeners. I think the other way round is unlikely, i.e.

athletes who are training for 5km, 10km and then attempting Marathon as "training". Thus our statement should read "if an athlete can run 5km and 10km as fast as Bekele at his best *on marathon training*, then he is capable of 2:00:36"

we

ventolin = function(T1,D1,T2,D2,Dnew) {

return (T1/D1 + (T2/D2 - T1/D1)*log(Dnew/D1)/log(D2/D1) )*Dnew

}

I tried this on the data we looked at in the paper and got RMSE around 0.1.

Thus this does not seem to be a viable approach.

Compare to RMSE of 0.306 for LMC

You do understand that pointing to one specific example that disagrees with the statistics doesn't refute the statistics? Do you even know probability, BRO?

This whole survey is bunk

The cream of east african distance talent has switched to the roads for a number of years now

They are currently maxxed out at 2-03 for the marathon

There is no way a peak bekele runs 2-00

avian expert wrote:

This whole survey is bunk

The cream of east african distance talent has switched to the roads for a number of years now

They are currently maxxed out at 2-03 for the marathon

There is no way a peak bekele runs 2-00

Maxed out at 2:03? What are you talking about? The world record is 2:02 and has been broken at least twice in the last 1.5 years. None of those guys has demonstrated the 10k ability of a peak Bekele.

net wrote:

avian expert wrote:

This whole survey is bunk

The cream of east african distance talent has switched to the roads for a number of years now

They are currently maxxed out at 2-03 for the marathon

There is no way a peak bekele runs 2-00

Maxed out at 2:03? What are you talking about? The world record is 2:02 and has been broken at least twice in the last 1.5 years. None of those guys has demonstrated the 10k ability of a peak Bekele.

Way to miss the point dude!

None of the top Kenyan marathoners are demonstrating anything on the track because they're competing on the roads for money

All of the Kenyan track distance records are like 15 years old now going back to when track meant something

The top east African distance talent currently has brought the record down to