Wariner is BACK, baby!

It took Wariner 4 seasons to go from 44.0 to 43.45, he dropped .55 seconds and on the tables its nowhere close to the kind of jump a 10.2 is to a 9.75. Its completely natural progression and is actually quite amazing and consistent. Johnson wasn't as consistent, and no one else was improving like that under 44 for the same period of time. Every other sub 44 during and before was one off or one to two seasons then nothing, Wariner went on for 5. Whats also unfortunate is that Hart wasn't taking advantage of altitude training, its amazing to think what Wariner could have done with just a degree more strength and some altitude.

The only other guy doing the same thing performance wise is another skinny underpowered guy, Kirani James.

Thanks for your use of evidence to back up your empirical claim.

You do know that Wariner was not in Clyde's group in 2008, right? He left the group for the understudy, which didn't work out, but he still ran 43.62 in 2008, which was the world leading time. Wariner didn't suddenly drop off. He began to decline a bit in 2008 and ran badly in the Olympic finals, losing to Merritt by a second, but since then it's been a gradual dropoff to no sub 46 last year.

dannyboy96 wrote:

Wariner wasn't on drugs?? You're joking right?? 43.45 400m for 3rd all time, then suddenly he falls off the face of the Earth? Foot injuries my ass... the guy was doped to the gills. Watch him in Stockholm in 2006... he's third coming into the straight and probably runs the last 100m in 11.3. It was absurd.

Also, it was quite mysterious how Clyde Hart's group suddenly all fell off during the 2008 season, right around the time the Cera EPO product was on anti-doping authorities radar. 8-10 elites (including SRR, Tyler Christopher, Darold Williamson, Gary Kikaya) were suddenly garbage. As a matter of fact, TC was 5th in the 2007 worlds, and 3rd in 2005, yet failed to advance past ROUND ONE in Beijing. Meanwhile, Wariner literally ran a second slower than he did in Osaka. Blame the coaching change? If you do, you're a dimwit.

Wariner was not just "fairly consistent for a time." He was probably the second most consistent top level runner in history over time behind Michael Johnson.

2015 45.98 April

2014 46.01 Ponce 17 MAY

2013 45.35 Des Moines, IA 26 APR

2012 44.96 Walnut, CA 21 APR

2011 44.88 Baie Mahault 07 MAY

2010 44.13 Zürich (Letzigrund) 19 AUG

2009 44.60 Berlin (Olympiastadion) 21 AUG

2008 43.82 Zürich (Letzigrund) 29 AUG

2007 43.45 Osaka (Nagai Stadium) 31 AUG

2006 43.62 Roma (Stadio Olimpico) 14 JUL

2005 43.93 Helsinki (Olympic Stadium) 12 AUG

2004 44.00 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 23 AUG

2003 45.13 Tempe, AZ 12 APR

2002 45.57 Lubbock, TX 27 APR

I was mistaken above, however, where I said he ran 43.62 in 2008. He ran 43.82 that year, second best in the year to Merritt, but Wariner did break 44 three times that year and in his semifinal at the Olympics ran 44.15 easing up the last 50m, leading some to think he could break MJ's record. In my view, his performance in the final was due to mental, not physical, issues, being psyched out by Merritt, but maybe it was the difference in training methods that year without Hart.

Duck400 wrote:

So your saying that someone at Baylor university started a 20 year old JW on a program of EPO and steroids and kept him on them for a decade, without ever getting caught, or spilling the beans. Riiiiight.

He won Olympic gold in 2004 in 44.0 and can still run in the 45s (last Saturday in fact).

He's that good mostly because of his technique and body type. Watch him run. He is smooth, graceful, and poised. He covers a lot of ground in an efficient manner. He's extremely talented, hard working, and well coached.

At his peak he could run under 44 and can run in the 45s. The guy was born to run the 400m.

Yes... That is what we are saying. No one is denying he has talent. NO ONE!

1) PED's are way more widespread than most people realize. All the elites are talented, whether or not they take drugs. I also agree that is form is exceptional. But, that's not the point.

2) There are LOTS of different kinds of PED's that help sprinters. Lots! And they all don't make you bulky. Even anabolic steroids used intelligently and especially with Hart's type of training would not necessarily make Wariner bulky.

3) Hart is NOT the greatest 400m coach. He has had some of the greatest talent and the greatest chemists and loyal support.

4) Contrary to your and others arguments, his longevity is more of a proof of his drugs than anything else.

5) Age is almost irrelevant. HS kids use steroids and PED's ALL the time to get scholarships and just because its cool to be big, strong, or fast. College coaches have, and still do, give their kids substances to aid their performance, and often they are banned, or not yet banned substances.

6) It is a sad reality that it is so widespread, but I don't understand how people are so shocked when athletes take PED's. Look at any single other industry and tell me people are not acting similarly. It's human nature. When there is money in something it gets corrupted. People's pride drives them to do a lot of things. The world is not so rosy as we would like to think and neither is athletics.

If you watch the final in Beijing he gave up too much in the first 300, he had lane 6 and should have had a big lead into the final turn, then he gave up the last 50 when he knew he was beat. It was a poorly run race and shows that it can be hard running from an outside lane when you can't see your main competition.

Ran 45.5 as a school boy and you think he needed drugs to get barely 2 seconds faster as a man?

dannyboy96 wrote:Yeah, Wariner had some great seasons, and was fairly consistent for a time, but the difference between running 44.0 or 43.9, vs. 43.4 is STAGGERING. That is literally like a 10.2 guy suddenly running 9.75. If you go to the Mercier scoring tables I'm sure you'll find support for this notion

those tables are nonsense

i've made up some mathematical tables which i believe are best possible

44.00 = 19.75 = 9.875

43.90 = 19.70 = 9.85

...

43.40 = 19.45 = 9.725

( incidentally

43.29 = 19.395 = 9.70

43.18 = 19.34 = 9.67

43.14 = 19.32 = 9.66

all assumed low-altitude / 0 wind )

jw's progression was akin to a 20y ole 9.8-mid/high guy going to 9.7-low basic at 23y

that is not something unworldly in past decade - see bolt/blake/etc

no one wrote:A big Ryun fan but I don't recall a 44.58 or faster out of the blocks. I don't recall a relay mark that fast either. Got some dates places on that? I just don't recall that ...

the other guy was imposter but not wrong

Ryun at 18y ran a 46.9y anchor, making up 20 yards on a quagmire it was deemed unfit to sprint on with lj runway having to be replaced with a conveyor belt & 1 guy's short's getting pulled down running on that sludge

all this with fatigue of an awesome 3'55 in his legs on that quagmire

( probably worth 3'51 on dry dirt ( remember he ran 3'51 soon after on dry dirt ), 3'47 on '70s synthetic at remember, 18y !!! )

fully rested, on '70's synthetic, Ryun was capable of a 45-flat at still 18y !!!

& probably 1'41-low/mid / 3'27-flat/low

he was infinitely better athlete in '67...