Did Alan Webb Have Olympic Medal Potential at 10,000m?

April Fool's day was six days ago!

no

Not really fair to poo-poo Webb's chances when he only ran one and never had the 10000 as a focus. Seems to me 27:34 is pretty darn good with those considerations.

He may have been better as an 800 runner. He was 1:43 when there were few others in that class.

ifyoudon't wrote:

He may have been better as an 800 runner. He was 1:43 when there were few others in that class.

No doubt. He "could have" been another Aouita.

ngvc wrote:

Strength is speed wrote:

Doesn't matter, fast or slow, strength is more important than speed. The guys who are kicking fast in the final lap are the ones who are least tired. To medal at 10,000 you need to be capable of well under 27:00.

No, it does matter. If the pace is slow enough, then the miler will have a great kick.

You don't need to be "well" under 27:00 to medal in the 10000 these days (see Farah). He was likely barely under 27 ability at the last championship 10k and he is the one that won.

Well under 27 ABILITY

First off, Farah had run 26:46 before that race, that's well under 27 and that was from 2011, and not only that, in terms of ability, he could have run even faster than that, I'd go to say he was in about 26:35ish shape in Moscow

But even having the said, I know and you know, the 10k on the track isn't run very often, why would the elites run a bunch of 10k's? The Diamond League doesn't even support the 10k, there's only 1 ran once a year (a Pre or Brussels), so the money is not there for the track 10k, most elites run 5k's in preparation for their 10k...

But you can't argue that

London 10k

1) Farah

2) Rupp

3) Tariku Bekele

4) Kenny Bekele

5) Bedan Karouki

Moscow 10k

1) Farah

2) Jelian

3) Masai

4) Rupp

Don't all have sub 27 ability if they haven't already done it

brian tryin lyin wrote:

Webb ran 3:46 and 27:34, so it seems he could have shown Galen Rupp his heels on a last lap. What say you?

The answer is no for two obvious reasons, when Webb was in his prime, KB was also in his prime and there was no way Webb was going to beat KB in any type of race. Also, Webb's speed wouldn't matter if you can't stay with the leaders in what would be a tactical race for them. Even in a tactical 27:20 race, the African always throw in at least 3 laps at sub-27 pace to thin the field.

26:44>>27:34

TrackCoach wrote:

brian tryin lyin wrote:

Webb ran 3:46 and 27:34, so it seems he could have shown Galen Rupp his heels on a last lap. What say you?

The answer is no for two obvious reasons, when Webb was in his prime, KB was also in his prime and there was no way Webb was going to beat KB in any type of race. Also, Webb's speed wouldn't matter if you can't stay with the leaders in what would be a tactical race for them. Even in a tactical 27:20 race, the African always throw in at least 3 laps at sub-27 pace to thin the field.

You did not have to beat Bekele to medal.

I was in the stands when Webb ran his first and only 10k on the track at Stanford. It was a very good race between Webb and Ritz. They traded off leading for a good majority of the race and Webb's speed allowed him to leave Ritz behind over the last lap. Webb looked very controlled during the whole race.

Webb might have had the athletic ability to contend for a medal at the 10k if he focused on it. However, he was too much of a mental case to ever medal in a global championship. Athletically, he probably had the talent to medal. However, the argument is pointless because he didn't have what it takes mentally to do it.

Case Closed.

Yep, that pretty much sums it up. I remember watching the video of the race and seeing Webb outkick Ritz in the final lap. He looked like such a natural in the 10000 and I remember thinking afterwards that the sky is the limit for him.

He had all the physical tools to medal from 5000 to 10000, but the mental/emotional aspect was lacking.

brian tryin lyin wrote:

Webb ran 3:46 and 27:34, so it seems he could have shown Galen Rupp his heels on a last lap. What say you?

No, he couldn't have. Rupp would take off with 2 laps to go and run a 59 like he did at the Pre Classic last year (off of 26:50 pace). Webb wouldn't hang.

No. The answer is no. End of thread.

ngvc wrote:

You don't need to be "well" under 27:00 to medal in the 10000 these days (see Farah). He was likely barely under 27 ability at the last championship 10k and he is the one that won.

Renato Canova wrote:

Don't think the real value of Mo is 12'53". He ran already 12'57" in 2010, when we worked together for some month in Iten, in Zurich, and now is very much stronger, after going to Salazar. To think can run near 12'40" is something reasonable, such as the possibility of running under 26'30" in 10000m.

Posted July 2013 after Mo's 3:28 1500 in Monaco

Franklin wrote:

Yep, that pretty much sums it up. I remember watching the video of the race and seeing Webb outkick Ritz in the final lap. He looked like such a natural in the 10000 and I remember thinking afterwards that the sky is the limit for him.

He had all the physical tools to medal from 5000 to 10000, but the mental/emotional aspect was lacking.

Much like Fernando Mamede. Could run a great one-off time-trial race, but in major championships struggled mentally (1984 10000m). When Mamede broke the WR for 10000m, he easily outkicked Carlos Lopes, but Carlos was much better in Championship races (World XC, Olympic silver 10k in 1976, Marathon gold in 1984).

Webb might have had the ability, with good range, like Aouita, to medal, but he never proved that he could deal with the pressure at that level, and that is part of racing at world championships/Olympics. In HS he would have been better off running things like world juniors to get used to racing top people, instead of fast HS time-trials or even the 3.53 mile race, where he was hoovered along to a fast time with no real pressure - he really had nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Webb had better 1500 potential than 10,000 potential and didn't medal in that.

no

Yes. Remember when he took down Ritz and then broke the American Mile record about a year later? There is no controversy here, Alan Webb is just a great overall runner.

brian tryin lyin wrote:

Webb ran 3:46 and 27:34, so it seems he could have shown Galen Rupp his heels on a last lap. What say you?

Yes, because Rupp would have lapped him on the final backstretch.