Just like past years, performance on race day will select the team. Here's the official path to the US tri oly team:
1. First shot at the team: A top 8 place at the Rio test event is an auto spot. If two Americans are in the top 8, they both make the team.
2. Next shot: is Chicago WTS where one spot is available (also must place in the top 8)
3. Next shot: A race TBD. and unlike the others, they'll probably take the top two or three outright (as USAT has not specified a top 8 place requirement).
The official process (and only process) here:
I really doubt we will have an American in the top 8 at the Rio test event. Other countries will also be using this as their auto qualifier for their respective Oly teams because it is the Olympic race course and everyone wants the best athlete for that course. Top priority. So it will be SERIOUSLY deep and competitive. Essentially the Olympics before the Olympics.
So the Americans will be gunning for one spot in Chicago and then two other spots at the TBD third selection race. I believe we will have 3 spots available for the US men (not 2). It is also possible that no American finishes in the top 8 in Chicago but I doubt it. In that case, all 3 American spots would be chosen in the final selection race. First 3 across the line = DRAMA.
Some Yanks will taper for Rio, some just for Chicago, some for both if they first miss in Rio. Chicago will be a much easier race to get a top 8 place than the rio test event. Much better odds at getting that spot. Chicago is also 6 weeks after Rio so there is some time to recover, maintain a taper, and stay sharp.
What does this mean for Webb?
He has just an equal opportunity to make the team as any other American with a rank of 140 or lower. At this point (March 15th 2015) Webb is ranked 118th. To be eligible for the Olympics an athlete needs to be 140 or under. That’s it. Beyond that, everyone is completely equal on race day. The one who gets the highest place at the trials races (Rio, Chicago, and TBD) will be on the team even if they are the lowest ranked American there. Rank is no matter at that point.
Manny Huerta did this in 2012, a non-swimmer (runner), who upset the two favorite Americans of that time (Shoemaker and Chrabot). Kemper also upset them. Webb can be the next Huerta if he gets his head on and his confidence and swim up. He's got a solid year to focus. And on the day, as equal chance as any one on the start line.
There is no Gwen jorgensen "Gwensanity" for the men, no clear favorites at this point. So game on for all.