Nutella1 wrote:
I've said it before, I'll say it again.
Ryan Hall's 2:04 was a curse. He truly believed he could reproduce this result in other Marathons and has trained like a 2:04 Marathoner.
But when you're a 2:06 high Marathon and train like a 2:04 Marathoner, you get injured.
His 2:04 in Boston was (adjusted for the wind) worth 2:08. A solid performance but nothing special.
Sam with Davila/Linden.
Hall's next fastest marathon was 2:06:17 (London 2008). Seems more "2:06 low."
The "wind adjustment" to 2:08 seems a bit much -- but since it's all speculative in any case, let's speculate with comparisons to some of the other top finishers in that windy 2011 Boston race. The top five all ran PBs on that day:
G. Mutai 2:03:02. Next fastest marathon 2:04:15 (Berlin 2012) +1:13
M. Mosop 2:03:06. Next fastest 2:05:03 (Rotterdam 2012) +:57
G.Gebremariam 2:04:53. Next fastest 2:07:59 (NYC 2011) +2:06
Hall 2:04:58. Next fastest 2:06:17 (London 2008) +1:19
A. Cherkos 2:06:13. Next fastest 2:07:08 (Seoul 2014) +:55
Four of these have run about a minute or so slower than their 2011 Boston times. Gebremariam has a greater difference, but NYC is also a slower course. Those 2011 times seem to be "worth" about a minute or maybe two minutes slower. I trust the actual relationships between actual times than some other estimate of 'wind adjustment.'
As for the curse, it seems not to have affected those other 4, each of whom approached that very fast time sometime soon afterward -- 3 within the next year; Cherkos taking longest. The other one -- Hall -- is distinctive in this small group for not coming close to that 2011 performance. If it was a "curse" for Hall alone amongst these 5, then it is related to his approach to his sport, i.e., of apparently not having a plan when one prepares for or engages in marathon competition. However nice and humble and talented and accomplished, and hardworking (in some way) that he is or may be, Mr. Hall seems distinctive among many recent internationally competitive marathoners in that he does not seem to devote any thought to what he is doing, and he seems 'proud' of that, if that is the right description of such an approach. I am neither a fan nor a detractor of his -- I would like to see him do well, as I would like to see lots of these athletes do well. But I find his expressed lack of attention to the actual process of preparation to be puzzling. Were I his employer (i.e., ASICS), I would be asking some questions about our return on investment at this point.