Awesome: Lagat Does Do The 10k! Bernard Lagat going for Haile G's Masters 10k record of 28:00 on May 10

broken link rojo

[quote]rojo wrote:

I guess a lot of it is the result that it doesn't make sense to be 'sort of elite' /quote]

Of course that would mean that many top U.S. runners are not making sense...

rojo wrote:

I guess a lot of it is the result that it doesn't make sense to be 'sort of elite'

You just told 1/2 of this forum that theirs is a pointless existence.

no, there is a massive physiologic change that occurs almost overnight once you hit the years beyond 35. it sounds cliché, but it's completely true. recovery is harder, legs don't have the same pop.

jamin wrote:

rojo wrote:

I guess a lot of it is the result that it doesn't make sense to be 'sort of elite'

You just told 1/2 of this forum that theirs is a pointless existence.

You mean 99%+ of the forum I think. Running 14:00 5k still puts you in that category.

Good on Lagat

Track WRs drop like a stone after 35 because most runners have moved up to the marathon by then and do not go back. In the US, there is almost no money on the track for masters runners. It is almost all on the road. There have been guys like Dennis Simonaitis who could break 30 min on the roads and probably could go low 29s on the track. Dennis was never much as an open runner. Take someone who is internationally competitive and keep him running up to 40 and you could see lots of people running sub 29 and faster on the track. Also, for the E. Africans, the number of spots in competitive track races is very limited, especially in the 10k. So, the agents will always get the younger runners into races instead of the older ones. Physically, men can maintain their times from 35-40. 40-45 gets tough and the big decline is 45-50.

justsomeoldcoach wrote:

broken link rojo

Bernie don't run no 10k.

i think, he will get the sub 28:00.

his 7:37 suggests it.

Ferguson J wrote:

[quote]rojo wrote:

I guess a lot of it is the result that it doesn't make sense to be 'sort of elite' /quote]

Of course that would mean that many top U.S. runners are not making sense...

The difference is those guys who are 38 were once elite. It's gotta be hard training your ass off every day and getting slower each year, getting further and further away from your PRs. I know Alan Culpepper cited this as a reason for his retirement, and one of the things Kevin Sullivan talked about in one interview was how running very close to his PR at age 31 was very revitalizing as he had had a few rough years.

Runners are a neurotic bunch and are always trying to find ways to shave off a few seconds here or there or even a fraction of a second. When you're doing everything you possibly can and see yourself getting slower, even after years of work, it's pretty defeating.

...

I do think Lagat can get the record. 28:00 on the roads is actually pretty quick, but I think Lagat can do it. He's shown he's only slowed down slightly the last few years, and he was probably capable of 27:00 a few years ago, so he has a good chance.

Lagat will run 27:45 or better.

charly horse wrote:

i think, he will get the sub 28:00.

his 7:37 suggests it.

Using your 7:37 and Rojo's 13:07,

I get 27:23 for 10k

By way of ->

(a work in progress, don't judge the lack of beauty)

Hey Precious Roy, I got excited when you mentioned Simonaitis. You must live in Utah too. You make a very good point, that it is essentially social/economical considerations that make it appear that running ability plummets after 35. I've heard from D. Cabanillas that the real drop off comes after 45. I think the opinion of people who have actually attempted to do serious training for decades would be the experts on this subject. I think it is also internal mental considerations that play a big part in the drop off. i.e. a larger part of yourself realizes that although running is fun, in the grand scheme of your life, it is a childish and fleeting pursuit. But if you find a way to balance your pursuit of running with the other pursuits/responsibilities in life, you can still train as much as is needed. If you already have years of cardio base, I think our sport really only takes 10-12 hours/week to be at 99% of your potential, any more than that and you just get tired and injured.

There are definitely changes that need to be made in training after 35. More time needs to be taken to recover (running 2x a day maybe becomes more of a liability than a benefit), and your 5k PR is probably not going to improve. But there have been training runs and races I have run after 35, where I feel stronger than ever before. Maybe that just means I didn't explore my true potential in my 20s, but I really believe that if you are flexible enough to make adjustments and listen to your body, you can still really surprise yourself in your late 30s and maybe even early 40s. I'm excited to find out.

Lagat is the perfect example to see what a 40year old can run for 10k. Based on his 1500 PR, I would say he's as talented as anyone on the planet, now we get to see what that talent can do at 40 when moving up in distance and when properly financed and motivated. Perhaps the greatest attribute working in his favor is that he has always been flexible in his training (taking time off to avoid injury). As a result, he still has the physical and mental energy to do get the most from his body.

Performance equivalence calculators are not predictors, at least without more information on the ability of a given athlete. If Dathan Ritzenhein runs a 7:37 3000m, one can be reasonably certain that he is fit to run a 27:23 track 10000m, but it would be most unwise to draw the same conclusion about Lagat.

Also this is not a stadium track race. Bekele beat Kipsang last year 28:23 to 28:28 and third place was 29:11.

If Lagat breaks 29 minutes I will be very impressed. And it will require ideal conditions. Could be well up in the 29's if it's a slow day.

It's an appearance paycheck not a record attempt.

Unimpressive. Lagat is still an elite runner. He should be shooting for 27.

the wages wrote:

Performance equivalence calculators are not predictors, at least without more information on the ability of a given athlete. If Dathan Ritzenhein runs a 7:37 3000m, one can be reasonably certain that he is fit to run a 27:23 track 10000m, but it would be most unwise to draw the same conclusion about Lagat.

Also this is not a stadium track race. Bekele beat Kipsang last year 28:23 to 28:28 and third place was 29:11.

If Lagat breaks 29 minutes I will be very impressed. And it will require ideal conditions. Could be well up in the 29's if it's a slow day.

It's an appearance paycheck not a record attempt.

I have to agree with this. Lagat likely cannot run sub 28 on the roads. If this was a track race, I'd say for sure he could do it. But not on the roads. Geb was already a super experienced road racer by the time he was a master. Not to mention a marathoner.

Bernard Lagat has proven everything I've written about weak, fast-aging civilized people and strong, ever-youthful barbarians. So did Geb with that 28 flat for that matter.