Mo Farah and the 5k/10k WR - possible this year?

Big difference between the indoor 2-mile record and the outdoor 5k/10k records.

I don't think he can get the 10k WR. I think he could do around 26:30 at best.

I do think he can get a lot closer to the 5k WR. If I were him, I would take a stab at the 3k/2mile outdoor WR too. 8:03.4 is a long way from 7:20, but I think he could be really close to that time.

Popular opinion (here) is that the 3k WR is just stronger than the 5k. Given that Mo is probably slightly better at 3k than 5k I would guess he has about an equal chance to run both 7:20 and 12:37. Will be extremely difficult to get either though (I personally give him a slightly higher chance at 5k).

just an opinion

7'20.67 = 12'39.35

12'37.35 = 7'19.47 !!

kennster's 5k wr is much stronger

however, that is not saying much :

komen's shape of his life was '98i when i reckon he was in outdoor shape of

~ 3'27+ / 7'17+ / 12'32/12'33

sadly he was burnt out by outdoor season

tasty wrote:

well - what'd y'all think now? All one has to do is call out Mo on twitter and get him fired up.

NO chance.

I think his best shot at a WR is the 10k actually. It is a "weaker" record and Bekele surely could have run 26:0x if he didn't run so much of it alone.

Unfortunately for Mo, all of the distance records are very strong and he's entering the twilight of his career; WR are rarely set by athletes at in their mid-30s. The 10K is almost definitely out because I am convinced Mo is actually a middle distance runner, with good endurance and a great kick. When KB set the 10k WR of 26:17, he had set the 5K record the previous year, hye had run several 12:4x 5Ks and 26:2x 10ks, won the long and short WXC several times and was in his mid-20s. Mo has not done anything like that to indicate he can come close to the 5K and 10K records. With that said, what might be the strongest record of all, might be the best one to chase based of his 1500 PR. But, that might not be possible either because that record is several seconds beyond what seems humanly possible. If the record was 7:23, it would be very strong, in line with the 5K/10K, but 7:20 is almost Beamonest.

All of the records are out, but I can see Mo getting to second on the 3K list, running a much faster 5k/10k, but not even cracking the top-10 in those events.

Let tell you something that is for sure happening, laughing at your statement while I read it!

flent wrote:

I don't think he can get the 10k WR. I think he could do around 26:30 at best.

I do think he can get a lot closer to the 5k WR. If I were him, I would take a stab at the 3k/2mile outdoor WR too. 8:03.4 is a long way from 7:20, but I think he could be really close to that time.

The 2000 record might be in play here.

TrackCoach wrote:With that said, what might be the strongest record of all, might be the best one to chase based of his 1500 PR. But, that might not be possible either because that record is several seconds beyond what seems humanly possible. If the record was 7:23, it would be very strong, in line with the 5K/10K, but 7:20 is almost Beamonest

no

i have seen top 5 3ks on tv

- hicham's 7'23 was off slow pace that he was "shooing" pacer to quicken, who did too much & ruined his shot at 7'20/7'21

- morceli ran his 7'25 off a jog to 2k & only blasted last lap

he shouda been 7'22/7'23 that day if pacing had been adequate

- saidi-sief ( albeit doper ) really did jog to 2k+ & only speeded up last 900 & blasted last 800 in 1'56

he again shouda gone 7'23/7'23 off komen's pacer to 2k

- kennster :

this was a shame

he had terrible, freezing downpour in a 7'26+, where iirc pacer dropped out before 2k, leaving kennster to go thru in 5'02-high !!!

( komen went thru in 4'53-mid )

he blasted last km in something ridiculous to get 7'26+ in horrible weather

he was worth 7'19/7'20 that day in good weather with komen's pacer to 2k

TrackCoach wrote:

The 10K is almost definitely out because I am convinced Mo is actually a middle distance runner, with good endurance and a great kick.

Absolutely ridiculous... He is a distance runner with great 1500 speed. Mid-distance is 800/1500. 1500m runners don't run 60:00 halfs or 26:4x 10K's and they definitely don't have the strength to kick at the end of those 5k/10k races.

ventolin^3 wrote:

just an opinion

7'20.67 = 12'39.35

12'37.35 = 7'19.47 !!

kennster's 5k wr is much stronger

however, that is not saying much :

komen's shape of his life was '98i when i reckon he was in outdoor shape of

~ 3'27+ / 7'17+ / 12'32/12'33

sadly he was burnt out by outdoor season

I did a similar calculation and found the 5k world record was worth a 7:19, and both Bekele and El G could have run 7:19 on a good day.

Honestly Mos best chance at an outdoor WR is the 3000 m or 2 mile.

He also could try to take down the 2000m record but I think it's too fast for him.

The 2000 record is COMPLETELY out of reach. For me it is the best record at 1500 and above (I think the 800 record might be better). 2000 might be Mo's best distance, but he's nowhere close to where ElG was when he ran it and ElG's best distance was probably 2000.

The record he has the best shot at would be the outdoor 2 mile (although it's not an official WR, I know...). After that, probably Komen's 3000. But I don't think he can run that either.

Finally, as for the 5/10, no way. He would have had to do what he did today - outdoors, which is probably a bit more difficult - and then finished another 5 laps averagin 61/lap. Nope. And though the 10000 is a weaker record than any of them, Mo is not, naturally, a long distance runner. He seems to get weaker relatively, the longer the race.

And as for drugs, let's all just stipulate that every record on the book is the result of PEDs. So, too, are probably the next 30 times in each event. So, yes MO is on drugs. Welcome to top level sport

Manchester wrote:

Absolutely ridiculous... He is a distance runner with great 1500 speed. Mid-distance is 800/1500. 1500m runners don't run 60:00 halfs or 26:4x 10K's and they definitely don't have the strength to kick at the end of those 5k/10k races.

60 for a half isnt THAT fast. That's almost half a mile behind what the half record should be. A middle distance runner should be able to around 60 for a half.

Furthermore, Farah's fitness like anyone else's changes with training. He wasn't able to run 3:28 when he ran 2:08 in London. Fitness changes.

I expect Farah and Rupp to go for a fast time at the Pre meet. Rupp clearly could have gone in the 26:30's last year (1:57 finish) so Farah should have the ability to get into the 26:20's.

In addition to a windless night, biggest factor will be pacemaking. It's become very difficult to get a pacemaker to go out in 13:15 and that still leaves you with half the race. Last year you had guys pushing the pace trying to break Rupp. No one will even think that Farah can be broken so they likely won't try.

Farah definitely noticed that Rupp got a better 10000m PB than his own last year and he wants those bragging rights. But will he be willing to take the pace from a long way out and let Rupp sit?

Already looking forward to the possibility anyway. I don't know how many more fast 10000 meters we're going to see with the threat of being dropped from the Oly's. Whatever AR Rupp winds up with could last a very very long time. Same for Farah and the European record (if he doesn't get the WR, admittedly a tall order).

Link wrote:

The 2000 record is COMPLETELY out of reach. For me it is the best record at 1500 and above (I think the 800 record might be better). 2000 might be Mo's best distance, but he's nowhere close to where ElG was when he ran it and ElG's best distance was probably 2000.

It's about a 7:21-22 equivalent. Tough but not out of reach for Mo.

StatMan wrote:

Link wrote:

The 2000 record is COMPLETELY out of reach. For me it is the best record at 1500 and above (I think the 800 record might be better). 2000 might be Mo's best distance, but he's nowhere close to where ElG was when he ran it and ElG's best distance was probably 2000.

It's about a 7:21-22 equivalent. Tough but not out of reach for Mo.

Usually, the pace when doubling in distance should be about 2-2.5 s/lap slower. Thus the 3000 record should be 1-1.5 s/lap slower per lap than the 2000. This means an equivalent 3000 would be around 7:15-7:18,

sesterman wrote:

Manchester wrote:

Absolutely ridiculous... He is a distance runner with great 1500 speed. Mid-distance is 800/1500. 1500m runners don't run 60:00 halfs or 26:4x 10K's and they definitely don't have the strength to kick at the end of those 5k/10k races.

60 for a half isnt THAT fast. That's almost half a mile behind what the half record should be. A middle distance runner should be able to around 60 for a half.

Even more ridiculous... name ANY mid-distance runner who runs 60:00 for a half...

Zane Robertson