Trautfish wrote:
I agree with Socal cush that 4:00 is probably a stretch - John really is not a miler at heart, PR only 3:58 in his prime, getting older/losing leg speed, bad toe, etc. I could see him getting down to around 4:06-4:08 range. What really shocks me, however, is that his goal for his 1st 5K is only to break 15. That was his better distance historically, and based on where he is now, he should be able to absolutely crush the 5K with perhaps a little training modification, if that's even necessary. I believe he could break 14 now, and probably could get it down to 13:40 pretty soon. Regardless, this is all very exciting to me (I'm 49) - just as exciting as watching the top open pros - and I can't wait to see what he does next.
sub-4 is a stretch, but not because of what you said.
Not a miler? He ran 4:11 as a sophomore. I believe he ran 4:05 as a senior, but can't find that. I think he got mono after settign National HSR of 8:05 for 3k at Penn Relays. Placed 2nd at Footlocker as a junior. He ran the lead-off 1200m leg on the WR distance medley relay at the 1987 Penn Relays. He anchored the Georgetown DMR in 1991 with one of the fastest splits, 3:55.3, ever at Penn.
So, while he was not an all-time great at the mile (like say the greatest talent ever like Jim Ryun or Alan Webb), he was in that level just below that, where if things had gone a little better for him he would have done 3:51-54 for sure.
Most people believe that if he had run until yr 2000 he would have been the second or first American to break 13:00.
There were many others in the 80s before him that ran that fast with less ability.
In short, he was not a 3:58 miler, he just never ran faster than that officially.
RE: the 5k. The HSR for 5k is 13:37. I think 3 people have run 13:44 or faster, but how many people have run sub 4:05? Hundreds at this point? 13:40 is not equivalent to 4:12y. 14:00 is not equivalent to 4:12y.
I agree that shooting for sub-15 is a low bar, and I agree that it would be great if he would target some time barriers. But I think sub-9:00 for 2 miles is the most realistic one right now, besides sub-4:10 for mile.
Even if his endurance IS better right now (which is what you seem to be implying) 14:00 is really fast. I still think Plas holds the M40 5000m AR at 14:02 or so? (interesting that those two ran against each other as pros, but Plas is 12 yrs older).
Plas was training seriously at the time and had not taken any time off in 25 yrs, AND he was just 40.
John is 46, I just don't see him getting to 13:59 unless he devoted his whole life to that.