A defense of why Seattle passed on 2nd and goal instead of running The Beast, Marshawn Lynch

Let me try and do a better job explaining.

* It's 2nd down. There are 26 seconds left in the game and 1 timeout remaining.

* If you run and get stopped then you have to burn your last timeout, leaving perhaps 20 seconds left.

* At that point you have to pass on third down. That way you can stop the clock and leave enough time for a play on fourth down.

* No matter how you slice it, you have to pass on either 2nd or 3rd down.

* But if you run on 2nd and pass on 3rd, then you're going against the prepared defense. The Pats had man coverage on 2nd down and they'd know the Seahawks are passing on 3rd.

* So you're best bet is to pass when you've got the man coverage on 2nd down.

* Carroll was right

Star wrote:

Haji wrote:

The Patriots WERE expecting a pass and that is why Butler was on the field. He even said that the Patriots practiced against the exact same situation with the scout team. In practice, Butler played it safe and gave up the pass and that is why he charged the ball in this situation instead of staying back. The Patriots knew what the Seahawks were going to do but the Seahawks had no idea what the Patriots were going to do.

Outcoached

Well, I'm sure the Patriots stole their signals and knew the call.

That's not surprising.

But it wasn't the defensive alignment that made the play.

It was jumping the route which will work on every play in every situation if you KNOW the play.

No stolen signals needed. You just watch a lot of game film and then practice against the plays on the field. I'm no big supporter of the Patriots but they were well prepared and well coached, as they usually are.

Don't forget that after the Marshawn Lynch run on 1st down, there was 1:02 left on the clock.

I guarantee that every contingency plan Seattle made during their previous TO (which they called after the miracle catch) was predicated on the idea that New England would call a timeout after any running play that didn't result in a score. Everyone at my SB party was screaming for Belichick to call a TO after Lynch's run-- there's 1:02 left; you still have plenty of time to get the ball back and drive for a game-tying FG.

So Belichick of course does not call a TO. Why not? If he stops the clock with 1:02 left than Seattle is going to give it to Lynch 3 times from the 1 (maybe they mix in a Russell Wilson keeper). Good luck stopping that. Instead, he lets the clock run, which I guarantee the Seahawks coaches were not expecting. Now, instead of having all of the time in the world to run the ball three times, they're in a situation where a) the clock is swiftly ticking towards zero and b) they have to think a little bit more about deviating from the script they just cooked up. The result is that they overthought it and called a pass play. You can say it was a bad call, and it was, but it the context of the game it's clear that Bill Belichick either had an aneurysm and forgot to call timeout or deliberately tried to goad them into throwing the ball on that down. I'm not saying that Belichick knew they'd pick it off, just that he wanted the ball out of Lynch's hands at all costs-- and sure enough, that's what happened. The dude is an evil, evil genius.

Star wrote:

Woody Hayes..... wrote:

Three things can happen when you pass the ball and two of them are bad.

And if you run the ball, you can score, be stopped or fumble.

So - it's the same, 2 out of 3 are bad.

But if you run and are stopped, the clock keeps ticking. So you have to rush or burn a timeout that me be needed later.

With an incomplete pass, you keep that timeout.

Then they would have had more options on 3rd or 4th down.

If they ran and were stuffed, the options would have been more limited.

That was rojo's point.

2.61% of pass plays are intercepted.

0.65% of run plays end in a lost fumble.

Pass plays are 4 times more likely to result in a turnover.

Typical runner or sockpuppet wrote:

* Carroll was right

No offense, but I'll take the word of Cris Collinsworth, Steve Young, Tom Jackson, and every other former NFL taking head that thought it was a bonehead call. At minimum, choose a different pass play. I'd didn't hear a single "expert" defend Carroll.

I understand Carroll's concerns with the clock and just one timeout, but I can't imagine there aren't many Seahawk fans questioning his play calling.

Crazy ending to a great game.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is how bad the Seahawk's receivers are. Yeah, it wasn't a great call. Wilson probably could have made a better pass or read the breaking CB. But Matthews barely made an attempt for the ball, jogged out of his release, and got muscled off the ball by a smaller CB. I've watched the play a few times and keep thinking there is no way a competent WR allows that play to happen.

^This. I've been wondering about this since last night and, like you, was expecting the Patriots to call a timeout and save as much time as possible for one last opportunity to tie the game (assuming the Seahawks were going to score). It appears he went "all in" on his defense, not wanting to give the Seahawks another timeout. An absolute classic. Unbelievable ending.

yuiop wrote:

Typical runner or sockpuppet wrote:

* Carroll was right

No offense, but I'll take the word of Cris Collinsworth, Steve Young, Tom Jackson, and every other former NFL taking head that thought it was a bonehead call. At minimum, choose a different pass play. I'd didn't hear a single "expert" defend Carroll.

I understand Carroll's concerns with the clock and just one timeout, but I can't imagine there aren't many Seahawk fans questioning his play calling.

Crazy ending to a great game.

Actually Steve Young said Carroll was right.

Correct play was fake handoff to Lynch, then Wilson on the bootleg.

The fact of the matter is not that you can't complain about a play call based on the RESULTS. For example, I still think Belichik made the wrong call by not calling timeout with over a minute left and letting Seattle score. It worked this time, but I think 9/10 Seattle wins the game with a TD with 10 or 20 seconds left. You have to be a critic based on the call itself only. If the call were to work, then not one single person would mention that it was a terrible call. The pats stayed in goal line despite seattle sending out 3 WR so they passed it. Look at the alignment prior to the snap, should be a relatively easy TD pass based on the spacing, 1 on 1 matchups, and small amount of yardage needed.

The problem is that Seattle doesn't have very good WR and they don't have a QB who is great at standing in the pocket, reading a defense, and making an accurate throw. It showed with a bad route, and a poor throw to the wrong shoulder.

Young backtracked tracked some on his initial comments, but he still thought an inside pass was the wrong call. He understood Carroll's concerns about the clock, but he thought the Seahawks should have tried a different pass play.

Here is a decent analysis of the call:

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4320/the-seattle-seahawks-passing-decision-not-the-worst-call-in-history?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=dlvr.it_nF

Poor execution by Wilson and Lockett plus great read by Butler. Still should have gone BeastMode in my opinion...

Statistics I read this morning....

Beast Mode heading into SB was 1-5 from the 1yd line this season. 1 for 5.

Teams passed from the 1yd line 62% of the time this season.

Beast Mode had not been stopped for a loss the entire game....statistically speaking he was due for a loss.

Patriots NOT calling timeout after first down run was pure genius. 1st down run to the 1yd line had 1:06 left. Had they called TO then it was easily 3 more tries with Beast Mode. Instead they let the clock run and Seahawks had to very likely change their initial plan. Now the 2nd down pass was executed poorly because they got backed into calling it.

When the heck is Brady going to retire anyway?

Alan

A lot of good posts on this thread.

Yes, the clock/1 TO issue is something many did not consider initially (the idea that they would likely need to throw 1 out of 3 plays *once* they let the clock run down towards 25 seconds to go), and that the down they chose (based on formation and clock running down) was somewhat reasonable.

However......as others mentioned, there was close to 1:00 left after Lynch was tackled on first down. If Seattle REALLY had their act together, they of course had time to do 3 running plays (using 1 TO). I assume they got too cute with worrying about the possibility of scoring right away on next play (without wasting 30 seconds off clock like they did, and instead immediately rushing Lynch again say at 45-50 secs to go) and giving the Pats time to score a game-tying FG. You can't think like that. With 1:00 to go you need to think about scoring the go ahead score, period, and what is the be(a)st/easiest/safest/highest % way to do it. Go to Lynch, give 1-3 more tries. No way he doesn't score, and if he doesn't at first, then great, you burn some clock that you were worried about anyway.

The point is: with 1:00 to go, they DID have to go back to Lynch 3 times. No one made them stand around for 35 seconds, did they?

(and of course as many others have said: it's one thing to go do the pass play, it's quite another to go to that risky pass play that at least had deflection written all over it. Do the play action/fake hand-off to Lynch, roll out as Wilson does so well, and then he has option to hit the open receiver (if available) or run if lane is there, or THROW IT AWAY if it isn't a good look. Wilson had been forcing passes into traffic all game. It was about time it came back to bite him)

Run Lynch with 50 seconds to go instead of waiting 25 to throw. Run Lynch again or fake it to Lynch and keep it on 3rd. Call timeout. Throw a fade or let Wilson scramble and throw or run on 4th.

It wasn't a bad play call. Lockette looked wide open when Wilson threw it. Wilson even said he thought it was a TD when the ball left his hand. The result was a combination of a great play by Butler and a weak attempt at the ball by Lockette (see Bevel's comments).

Every single player, coach, former player, coaches, hall of famers, every person associated with the game of football have all unanimously called it the worst call ever.

False.

rojo wrote:

I watch a lot of football and giving my poker playing background consider myself an EXPERT on clock management.

Can someone explain to me how having a poker playing background makes someone an expert at clock management?