Estrada 28:51 at 10k; llano and ward 29:11; boit, keveren, rono 29:12; eggleston and meb 29:13.
Estrada 28:51 at 10k; llano and ward 29:11; boit, keveren, rono 29:12; eggleston and meb 29:13.
52.43 wrote:
A bit puffing of the cheeks and he is constantly checking splits - so, does this mean he is following a plan or will he soon blow up?
Estrada usually looks like that when he runs. He looks great right now.
Meb, Llano, Ward and Rono comprise the chase pack right now.
Women's field is still a pack of about 10; Bottorff, Bersagel are at the front.
Estrada is most likely going to blow up. I am no mathematician but 14:40/14:10 spells too fast too soon. That is a huge negative split to start a half marathon.
Dewey_Runner wrote:
Estrada.....holy crap.....
I'm now at the point where I'm not sure whether or not he's just dominating the field or en route to a complete blow-up.
First-time half marathoner so a blow-up wouldn't be surprising.
I'd bet on the field closing him down hard.
Women at 10k: bottorff, 33:26, bersagel, nelson, conley, bawcom, williams, hall 33:27. lauren jimison 33:28. They're on 1:10:32 pace.
The men's chase pack of four is now six; difficult to tell but my guess is they're not gaining on Estrada at all, perhaps even losing ground.
Is that split right?
Am I correct that the course is a slight downhill?
I say 45min in and the wheels are going to roll off the wagon and Diego is going to drop to the 4:50s. I still don't think they will catch him though.
Down to 5 in women’s race at 8 miles -- Bersagel, Conley, Nelson, Hall Bawcom.
In men's race, Ward leads the chase pack, with Rono, Meb, Llano and Eggleston behind him.
dscott1995 wrote:
I say 45min in and the wheels are going to roll off the wagon and Diego is going to drop to the 4:50s. I still don't think they will catch him though.
^Probably this. Lol, it is very humbling to think he will run 4:50's with the wheels having come off. :)
Sara Hall's stride is a full-blown waddle.
Carrie says 25-30 seconds from Diego to chase pack at mile 9.
Tried to get some info on the course...looks like the race website is down at the moment.
15k-
Estrade 43:14
Ward-43:59!!!!
43:14 for Estrada at 15K. 43:59 ward, 44:00 bem, 44:01 llano, 44:02 rono, 44:07 eggleston, 44:10 keveren, 44:11 mecheso.
Even if Estrada craters, it's hard to imagine him losing 45 seconds over the final 4 miles.
Meb, Llano, and Rono still with Ward at 15k.
I think Estrada's got this. Heck, I don't even think he's going to fade that much, he's actually extended is lead from 30 seconds at 10k to 45+ seconds at 15k.
row row rowbury your boat wrote:
Carrie says 25-30 seconds from Diego to chase pack at mile 9.
Then she can't subtract.
15k (~9.5mi) split showed 2nd place 45 seconds back.
Can they make up 15 seconds per mile? Not unless it gets really ugly for Estrada.
I wish I had shown some patience in my opinion at 10k! Ha, Estrada is running like a machine right now. 14:41, 28:51, and 43:14 is pretty consistent and he still looks smooth.
Ward making a move away from Meb and chase pack.
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