At last our dreams will become reality: Jeremy Wariner may open 2015 up at 800m!!! How fast (slow) will he go?

im getting a great huge sense that you dont rate a 400 runners cababilities!?

Prob because of course you think the 800 is the holy grail and therefore must only be competed at high level by those dedicating years and years to mileage!?

For any 400 runner in the sub 48.5 region running around 1:52 is a walk for the first 600m with pure spirit and 'muscle' taking over in the last straight

You forget JW already had good areobic conditioning under the Baylor programme, he would seem need to add one maybe two extra runs a week on top of his 400 training for him to break 1:50 with ease

The welsh guy (not banned for druggs) warbuton was only a 46/47 runner at best and went onto to run a 1:46 his first 800 season and he is in no way JW calibar

I have great respect for JW, i think you will be shocked

This will be fun. If he's successful look for a drastic progression- like Juantorena or Kiprotich (88 champ).

There is no way to predict unless you know Wariner personally.

If he's working at it to develop that base he needs to a 53 after going out in 50 then he could be great.

Does anyone remember the awkward running form of 400/800m specialist Mark Everett? He was a 44/143 guy. Many Thought at some point he would get the American record in the 800 because of his 44 speed.

It is not just that speed and strength alone. It takes a total different focus, mental capacity and toughness to run 49-53 first lap then to run a sub 58 for that second lap. You may make to 600m at 1:18-1:22 or faster but that last 200m you better hope your nitro kick in.

With his coach I can image he is fit to run a 1:49 easy and will get addicted to the race. I was a 200/400 guy well at least I thought I was......missed my race and coach punished me by putting me in the 800m. I was the best punishment ever. I got addicted and it was the beginning of kicking some butt and taking names.

Jeremy could easily have run 1:39 in his prime. The problem is that he is much older and doesn't seem to care, so high 1:40s is much more realistic.

aj2000 wrote:

im getting a great huge sense that you dont rate a 400 runners cababilities!?

Prob because of course you think the 800 is the holy grail and therefore must only be competed at high level by those dedicating years and years to mileage!?

For any 400 runner in the sub 48.5 region running around 1:52 is a walk for the first 600m with pure spirit and 'muscle' taking over in the last straight

You forget JW already had good areobic conditioning under the Baylor programme, he would seem need to add one maybe two extra runs a week on top of his 400 training for him to break 1:50 with ease

The welsh guy (not banned for druggs) warbuton was only a 46/47 runner at best and went onto to run a 1:46 his first 800 season and he is in no way JW calibar

I have great respect for JW, i think you will be shocked

I have great respect for JW too, I loved watching him compete in his prime and really hope he continues to do well. I also know that the last 200 of an 800 can be very hard to get right, especially the 1st time in competition.

The 1:52 was only a prediction of his opener, I can see him splitting 1:19/1:20 and running a 28 for a 1:48...I can also see him splitting 1:20, feeling a little off and dying/jogging the last 60-70 meters for a 1:52.

Je suis Rojo l'homophobo et primitivo et stupido et no comprendo le monde....

aj2000 wrote:

im getting a great huge sense that you dont rate a 400 runners cababilities!?

Prob because of course you think the 800 is the holy grail and therefore must only be competed at high level by those dedicating years and years to mileage!?

For any 400 runner in the sub 48.5 region running around 1:52 is a walk for the first 600m with pure spirit and 'muscle' taking over in the last straight

I have great respect for JW, i think you will be shocked

1:52 for the first 600 meters, eh?

An anecdote I ran with a guy who ran 46.xx in high school who only ever managed a 1:57 (in high school)he looked like a scrawny 3200 guy too. The point is 400 greatness rarely translates to 800meter ability.

This is interesting, but it's too bad he didn't make the switch a few years back. He's way past his prime at this point. As rojo pointed out, he's probably an "old" 31, given the fact that he's been competing at a world class level since college. Considering his decline in 400m speed, and inexperience at 800m, I can't see him going sub 1:50.

My prediction: 1:52

Seems like Wariner fell into the same trap as Alan Webb. Tried to hold on to his beloved event too long, hoping against hope that he would return to form and start winning meaningful races again. But then they finally accept the fact that they're slowing down, and decide to move up to a longer event, only to find that they're now too old and burned out to be elite at any distance.

limitless wrote:

Too bad he waited this long. Eight years ago I longed for him to enter the event. Just think..... Well crying Clyde probably had a hand in that decision. Again, too bad.... for him and us.

Yeah, my dream is to find a 400 guy in his prime, right after the season is over. LIke if we go up to Merritt or James after Worlds, when the season is done, and say, Here's 10k for running an 800. You have to run the first lap in under 50 and you have to break 2:00. Would that do it?

We've got another 10k if you break 1:48.

I want a) the element of surprise (no training) b) a fast first lap and c) a runner in their primes.

Would a 10k guarantee be enough to get them to do it? Or maybe we get the silver medallist as he'll be more financially hungry.

1:50.72

aims to run 1:49, cracks on the 3rd 200 and slips a few seconds.

Spirit of Eden - Talk Talk wrote:

1:50.72

aims to run 1:49, cracks on the 3rd 200 and slips a few seconds.

I can see this happening- that 3rd 200, more specifically the back stretch of the 2nd lap is mentally tough.

How fast will he go out?

52? That will feel like a jog to him until he gets to the 300 to go mark.

I can't wait.

I just hope it's a good night- will it be outdoors?

aj2000 wrote:

lol well he WAS a 43 guy--- 8 years ago!!!

As a 47/48 runner myself I can cruise and do 1:55 off minimal long runs

he can go sub 1:50 for sure, as he is quicker than me, fitter than me, lighter than me

First we have a specific question

",,,in his first 800"

the answer to that is not the same as '... once he has a number of 800s under his belt and becomes more familiar with the event..."

Setting the over/under at 1:50 in opening race seems to be a fair assessment of the possible results. Ideally an oddsmaker wants to have an even split with the half the betters under and half over. O/U and point spreads are designed to attract betters not as predictions of game winners.

From the quoted statement he believes 1:48 is a realistic outcome and thinks 1:50 is a fair over/under time.

If he switches to some lighter bling around his neck, I'd wager he'll go 1:45.

It'll be interesting because he's on the downside of his sprints career. He's a 46 400 guy right now. I think it really depends on what he's done for training the last couple of years. How much accumulated "endurance" fitness does he have? My guess is he runs something like 1:52, going 52/60

He's supernatural, wired completely differently from most. I hope he succeeds!

I was wondering if there are any past examples of 400 or 800 athletes returning to prime in lower 30s after a two or three year decline in SBs. It seems to me that it should be possible.

The problem I hve with all this is that even a few years ago (especially several years ago, in fact) much noise was made about JW and 800. Not Merritt, not whoever was No. 3 in the world, not James (although much of this was pre KJ) but JUST Wariner.

Why? Because he's white. Euro-American, honky, insert favorite racial slur here. An RT article a couple years ago mentioned this. Question: "Why does everyone want Jeremy Wariner to move up to the 800?". Answer: "Because he's white.". Right there in the pages of RT.

Come on, racists! How about the chick with the flower in her hair moving down to 400. Same thing!

Yeah, my dream is to find a 400 guy in his prime, right after the season is over. LIke if we go up to Merritt or James after Worlds, when the season is done, and say, Here's 10k for running an 800. You have to run the first lap in under 50 and you have to break 2:00. Would that do it?[/quote]

Keep dreaming that dream, Rojo. Let nothing hold you back in life.

I think it is more the fact that JW is, or seems, a lot lighter than those guys. He doesn't having blazing speed, well I mean he does but not for a 43.4 guy or whatever his pr is. That's why I think everyone wants to see him in the 800, because he has good strength and isn't all about just hanging on for dear life the last 100. Go watched his PR, it is one of the best finishes I have ever seen. That's why people want to see him run the 800, cause he has that strength that other guys like him don't really seem to have.

Now if we can only get Lee Evans to try the 800.