Make your predicitions now, When does Grant Fisher break 4:00 and how close to Webb's 3:53 does he get?

Andres Fan wrote:

You sure Fisher has way better endurance than all those guys except Cheserek? Arroyo soloed to an 8:51 3200. Saarel, Montoya and Haney went 8:45, 8:47 and 8:48. Based on his 4:02 and 8:55 I'd hardly say Fisher has way better endurance. 15:06 and 15:01 at FootLocker don't indicate massive endurance off a 4:02 mile.

Yeah i agree with you. Also, Haney ran 13:55 for 3 miles his senior year on a flat course in September.

You guys are comparing senior year track times from past fields to this year's class' junior year track times. In terms of the field, this year was historically good. Probably the highest number of kids with sub 9 and sub 4:10 credentials coming into the race.

It's always hard to compare people across different years but from the objective metrics alone, and given how he totally dominated the competition, I think fisher made it clear his endurance is comparable to any of the winners of the past. Forget which one, but in one of the post race interviews I think one of the kids said something along the lines of how fisher was visibly far less tired than everyone else before he made his move.

And let's not forget that his track season last summer was almost certainly the best any junior has ever had in recent years, when looking at both times (4:02.0y and 8:51y), the way he ran them (actual races instead of time trials), and consistency.

ib wrote:

And let's not forget that his track season last summer was almost certainly the best any junior has ever had in recent years, when looking at both times (4:02.0y and 8:51y), the way he ran them (actual races instead of time trials), and consistency.

Hhhmm nope. Haney ran 3:44 1500 and 8:48 3200 his junior year. I'm definitely not a Haney fanboy, I'm just heat checking you.

Convert the times and they are equal (probably slight edge to fisher actually). The take into account fisher winning both of the races he ran his times at (and being undefeated against high schoolers all season) over very deep fields, as well as qualifying for junior nationals. Plus his fln win.

blargh wrote:

ib wrote:

And let's not forget that his track season last summer was almost certainly the best any junior has ever had in recent years, when looking at both times (4:02.0y and 8:51y), the way he ran them (actual races instead of time trials), and consistency.

Hhhmm nope. Haney ran 3:44 1500 and 8:48 3200 his junior year. I'm definitely not a Haney fanboy, I'm just heat checking you.

Here's Grant jogging 3018m, then sprinting 200m in :26 to win in 8:51:http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251399-Brooks-PR-Invitational-2014/video/747624-Boys-2-Mile-F01#.VI4qTCfc7FkWhat do you think he was capable of that day?

Andres Fan wrote:

You sure Fisher has way better endurance than all those guys except Cheserek? Arroyo soloed to an 8:51 3200. Saarel, Montoya and Haney went 8:45, 8:47 and 8:48. Based on his 4:02 and 8:55 I'd hardly say Fisher has way better endurance. 15:06 and 15:01 at FootLocker don't indicate massive endurance off a 4:02 mile.

Probably 8:40 to 8:45 but his fln wins over 5k are even more indicative of his endurance than the 2 mile. Here's ostberg talking about when fisher started to break away (starts around 2:30). http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251731-Foot-Locker-XC-Championships-2014/video/754671-Alex-Ostberg-9th-excited-to-join-Grant-Fisher-at-Stanford#.VI4sYohOKK0

Logician2 wrote:

Here's Grant jogging 3018m, then sprinting 200m in :26 to win in 8:51:

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251399-Brooks-PR-Invitational-2014/video/747624-Boys-2-Mile-F01#.VI4qTCfc7Fk

What do you think he was capable of that day?

Andres Fan wrote:

You sure Fisher has way better endurance than all those guys except Cheserek? Arroyo soloed to an 8:51 3200. Saarel, Montoya and Haney went 8:45, 8:47 and 8:48. Based on his 4:02 and 8:55 I'd hardly say Fisher has way better endurance. 15:06 and 15:01 at FootLocker don't indicate massive endurance off a 4:02 mile.

To original Logician, sorry I accidentally took your name. To Andres Fan, that's what McGorty, Saarel, Cheserek, and Arroyo did as seniors. As juniors, all but Cheserek were pretty modest.McGorty was 4:09 1600 and 9:06ish 3200.Saarel was 9:01 with a big kick but only 4:16ish? for the 1600.Arroyo ran something like 4:10.Now loook at the kids Fisher beat:Ostberg has run 14:16 as a junior, and 8:53 for a full 2 miles, and 4:06 AND he's much faster this year.Dressel, Armstrong, Mantz, Hunter, Pollard, Tamagno, Maton, the list goes on and on and I'm definitely forgetting people ALL ran sub-9 as juniors, ALL ran 4:10 or better (including a 4:03 and two 4:06s), and several ran in the mid 14s for track 5ks. They are a fantastic group of guys. Some, like Maton, underperformed yesterday. Others ran fantastically. Fisher utterly destroyed them.Hunter has a huge kick, Hacker has a huge kick, Armstrong has a huge kick, Tamagno has great leg speed, Dressel is great at mid-race surges, and none of them were able to do a thing against Fisher. Hunter is basically McGorty from his senior year as a junior--he ran in the 14s FIVE times this year, some not on blazing courses, and ran 14:36 on an xc course--and when he tried to go with Fisher, he ran himself into the ground and wasn't able to hold onto second place.Footlocker yesterday was a bit like the 2012 Olympic 1500m. Fisher is Makhloufi in this scenario. When he went, there was no one there that could go with him. Those that tried, like Hunter, ruined their own race plans. Those that stayed back were able to pick up the pieces--Hacker and Reinhart are Manzano and someone like that Norway guy in this scenario. The time wasn't SO quick, but the devastation Makhloufi left in his wake showed that he was just a cut above the rest of the field.This isn't to say Fisher is a lock to break 4; he isn't. But he's very, very good, and he's only hyped as much as he is because he is THAT good. He's making some incredibly good runners look foolish. He's ready for the NCAA. He rises to his competition, and it's going to be exciting watching him struggle for the first time in years. He'll do very well.

ib wrote:

Probably 8:40 to 8:45 but his fln wins over 5k are even more indicative of his endurance than the 2 mile. Here's ostberg talking about when fisher started to break away (starts around 2:30).

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251731-Foot-Locker-XC-Championships-2014/video/754671-Alex-Ostberg-9th-excited-to-join-Grant-Fisher-at-Stanford#.VI4sYohOKK0

Logician2 wrote:

Here's Grant jogging 3018m, then sprinting 200m in :26 to win in 8:51:

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251399-Brooks-PR-Invitational-2014/video/747624-Boys-2-Mile-F01#.VI4qTCfc7Fk

What do you think he was capable of that day?

Everyone knew LV was really junior age when he won FLN and set his "10th" grade records. Notice that between that year and the next he skipped a grade and won as a senior the following year. He admitted it was ridiculous, and did the right thing. For some reason record books aren't able to be adjusted though (so stupid).Anyway, he was a well-trained triathlete for several years at that point, so his aerobic capacity was well above everyone else in the field. He had beautiful running form. Futsum was redlining just to stay with him and he just ran away.

blargh wrote:

The last time Foot Locker was this slow was when a 10th grade Verzbicas ran 15:07 to beat a subpar field.

NO way 3:53! That is record that will never be beaten. A Webb was on fire that day!

I think Fisher will be right at 4:00 to be honest. Now the 3200/ 2 mile will see the biggest improvement ( 8:51 PR). I will say 8:44 on that

Am I right that Michigan has very restrictive rules for out of state competition. If I am correct it would prohibit Grant from racing at meets like Arcadia.

His opportunities would most likely happen in the postseason (or indoors).

Can any MI folk verify that?

Jonathan Gault wrote:

I'm wondering whether he runs World Cross this year. I don't think Michigan has a big indoor season so I'd like to see him focus his attention on that. I'd be interested to see how he adapts to the 8k.

MI has a big indoor season. You can run a meet nearly every week (sometimes twice) at EMU, UofM, MSU, Grand Valley, even Spring Arbor, etc. from January 15th until ~march 15th. Which is when they hold indoor State Meet. This does not include the National indoor meets.

This does not mean that he will do any of them though. He might do 30 races indoors like Ritz did as a soph and junior, but that is not very likely.

More likely he just runs 1-2 meets to qualify for States and NBN. And then does a couple big ones like State and NBN. It looks like NBN is 3/13-15 this year so State will be earlier than it was for me.

I checked the site and I was sort of wrong, there are really a LOT of indoor meets:

36 meets before State Meet, and they have already started. In my day, we started after we had 10 weeks base in after XC around January 15th and just kept base training until the first week of outdoor around March 1st.

In any case I don't see him running WJCCC or the Trials. His coach has said that neither of them care about times, just that "he gets there first." I don't see GF winning a XC race against 24 yr-old Kenyans. I don't even think he would place that high.

All he has to shoot for indoors is a National title or a time high on the all-time list in the Mile or 3k or 2M. I can't see him shooting for a fast 5k indoors. There is not much chance he could set a HSR indoors, so if I were him I would be training to maximize my chances outdoors for whatever goals they have worked out for him.

He was compromised this Fall by running the World Juniors late into this summer and this is the first period of time he has not been playing soccer as well.

Who knows, with someone to run with, maybe he CAN run 3:53/8:29? I really would be surprised though.

can verify that. in michigan we have a 300mile travel limit or only in states that border michigan and then thats only if another participating school doesnt travel more than 300miles and is not from a non bordering state. exception we get 2 competitions that we can compete unattached/not representing school or club. this we can travel wherever, but most hs invites dont allow unattached

Something to think about, only 5 have run sub-4:00. But think of how many have come close?

4:00 Don Sage

4:01 Magness, Gerry Lindgren

4:02 Karie, Kimball, Thom Hunt, Andy Powell, Gabe Jennings, Centrowitz

(and some of these did it 40 yrs ago) Fisher himself.

4:03 John Quade, Zishka, Tom Sullivan (he did it 53 yrs ago)

So if GF were to peak for a race with OPEN runners where the pace was set up to favor a 3:55 type race I see no reason why he could not break 4:00. Obviously he ran 4:02 in bad conditions against only HSers last yr.

I thought Fisher could have gone sub 4 at dream mile last year. NYC typically has less than favorable conditions. lukas ran sub 4 in terrible conditions.

This is a serious question...

Were Cheserek and Verzbicas both U.S. citizens when they ran for U.S. high schools? I thought Cheserek came to the U.S. just before his junior year in XC?

And I thought LV grew up in Lithuania? Doesn't it take 5 years to become a naturalized citizen?

Nothing against either of them, I just always wondered how they were not treated the same as exchange students would be?

A. Everyone but Fisher didn't run very fast. You're lauding them as if they ran amazing. Yes it was one of the deepest classes ever, but they did not run all that well.

B. No one did anything to beat Fisher. They all played into his hands when they knew he had the best kick. And based on their PR's as juniors they should have run faster. I'm saying that because it wasn't a wait till the very end type of sit and kick race. Fisher went from around 1200 to go and separated on the hill.

C. Futsum was superior because he ran 14:53 in a race in which Cheserek sat and kicked. They were just both extremely fit and superior to everyone else.

D. McGorty and Saarel improved a ton from junior year track to senior year XC. That is when both of them made jumps from State elites to top National guys. Much more than the guys in this race did from their junior to senior years. Also, both of those guys looked like full grown men by sr. year footlocker. Very few of the heralded guys you mentioned in this year's race look as developed.

E. When Cheserek won his senior year in 15 low, he made his separation and started kicking at the hill. Very similar I'd say to this year. But the difference is that 3 guys were able to stay with him. Whereas the guys who tried this year weren't as good as in 2012, so they faded at the end.

McGorty, Leingang & Saarel > this year's field.

F. This would say that Fisher has similar kicking speed to a senior year Cheserek, but seeing as neither of his victories were in 14:52, he doesn't have the endurance.

Frankly, I don't want to see him get anywhere close to Webbs 3:53. I'd rather see him just barely break4 at maybe 3:59.6 if he breaks it at all.

Why?... It seems to me that when runners hit phenomenal times in HS, they suffer in the long run. I would much rather see them make steady progress toward better times over years and actually have a solid career than be a flash in the pan.

I know the buzz is interesting and fun, but it would be great to have the next truly "once in a generation" runner hit the scene with some longevity

It's called a race plan. In his Flotrack post-race interview, Fisher mentions a specific tree at the top of the climb as the point where he planned to make his final drive. If you watch the video, he followed the plan perfectly. As the hill levels off, they make a 90 degree turn, and he leans forward and starts to leave everyone immediately.He ran 2:05 from that point to the finish. No one matched the move at all, and he knew it because he glanced back before heading down the hill. He surely could have gone faster if someone was pushing him.In 2011, Ches ran 2:09 from that point to the finish, being pushed to the line by Futsum (2:10).Given that he followed his prescribed ran plan to perfection, on a course which was obviously at least a little slower than normal given the huge amount of rain from the day before, I'd say the performance was at least on par with 2011's race. And in a close race, I'd take 2014 Grant over 2011 Futsum all day.

To the dude who only has Don Sage as a 4 flat miler, there are plenty more including: Jantzen Oshier, German (The Real GF), Andrew Springer, Elias Gedyon, Austin Mudd, etc. etc. And yeah I think those are 1600's, most of them anyway, but there are soo many "once in a generation" talents who never quite make the jump to sub 4. Yeah, it would be cool to see him do it but there is a reason hardly anyone does. It's really damn hard. Hell, only a handful of collegiate guys do it and there are plenty that would make Grant look simply foolish who won't do it this year either. Just saying.