Make your predicitions now, When does Grant Fisher break 4:00 and how close to Webb's 3:53 does he get?

other options wrote:

Kimball second tier???? He had the CA state meet double record 4:06/8:46 before German broke it. This was when the two mile was before the mile and only separated by about 1 hour. PRs that year were 4:01/8:43 just missing Steve Prefontaine's record. Oh yea, he also won the WORLD cross country championships. Ridiculous how people forget.

Chill. That's not what we're talking about.

What guys go to Arcadia for a sub 4?

Multiple sub 4s this year wrote:

Call me crazy but I think we will see 4 guys break 4 this year. I think Fisher will do it first and others who are close to him will take confidence in that. I expect fisher will break arcadia invitational. And 4 runners will get itst the dream mile with fisher winning.

here we go wrote:

Did anyone at baby-nats last week prove anything that would lead us to believe they would have an impact on today's race? I guess I could see Anderson leading for a little while after Ostberg heading into the last mile.

German and Rupp had slower PRs than Grant through their junior years. They also lost races. Grant doesn't. Sorry bro.

asu guy wrote:

He might break 4

Lucas, German and Rupp were all much better track runners then Fisher.

4:00.3

Letsrun Brothers,

Now matter how much you drool over Fisher, he does Not get all time status in cross due to the Split events...and the suckage of talent from NXN.

This is not the Ritz or Matt Withrow or Ruben Reina Footlocker it's the watered down version. Like Coke to Coke Zero

are you 15 or 16 ?

Those guys were so much faster then Fisher will be as a high school kid. He won't even be as fast as Lucas....Lucas won FL twice also an all timer

Mark this thread Bro and I will come back and you can tell me what is what in the spring.

blargh wrote:

SB6 wrote:

Why go for sub 4? Because he can. The original question was how close to Webb's 3:53? I stand by my prediction like all the other posts. As for 8:40 being better, that's not what I said. Just a better goal.

I say 3:59 is realistic but not likely. I think it's more likely that he runs 8:40.

Heck, with a 4:02, Grant in a fast race could have broke 8:40 in the 3200m last year, he basically sit and kicked that 8:51 2 mile and Brooks (looked so relaxed the first 6.5 laps)

Think, Lukas only ran 3:59.71 and ran a 8:29.46 2M, I certainly think if Grand is in that 3:58-3:59.9 range I would expect him to at least be 8:36 for the full 2 miles, if conditions are good, maybe a little faster

As for 5k, I could probably see him being around 13:55 (Derrick's HS PR)

To all of you that say he will be a NCAA XC Champ by sophomore year, I'm not so sure about that... I think Fisher would be a great 5k runner, but the 10k is a whole other animal and I dont think Fisher can excel to the point where he can win NCAA XC's... He will do great, but maybe not win

I think if he wins anything in college, it will most likely be the indoor mile or 3k

Everyone compares him to Ritz and Centro, but I see him more of a Ryan Hill type, he think he's a miler now, has done good in the mile, he'll find himself getting some really good 3k times, and has someone untapped potential in the 5k, but it depends how his college coaches develop him

If they rush him aerobically he might turn out this way (Hill did 105mpw at the end of college), but if they really develop his speed threshold a little more I could def see him going to the Centro route (Centro did around 65-75mpw in college)

When does Grant Fisher break 4:00 and how close to Webb's 3:53 does he get?

50/50 he breaks 4:00 in 2014-15.

Less than a 1% chance he gets Webb's record.

No way Fisher breaks 4 in a HS race. The only chance he has is to be paced in a larger, faster mile by pros. And cross country speed does not always equate to mile speed on the track. For HS runners to break 4, they have to really want it, besides having the physical skills, the right race, and be peaking. It's just unlikely.

This is actually the most intelligent post I've ever read from Rojo. Solid points all around.

rojo wrote:

El G was from Morocco. That's all I'm going to say.

How about you man up and say what's really on your mind instead of being passive aggressive and implying El G was doped.

Personally, I've gone back and forth thinking he was clean, then there was no possible way, and now back to a middle ground where I really don't know one way or another, but can affirmatively say his stride was more aesthetically pleasing than anybody else....that I've EVER seen run in races 800 meters or longer. Even more majestic than King David.

The difference between Grant and all those other low-4:00 junior milers (except Ches) is they didn't have the strength to be two-time Foot Locker champions, and they didn't win their first Foot Locker title, run 4:02.02, and simply never lose.....all while playing soccer. The kid ran 4:02.02 in a season in which he also played soccer. Simply ridiculous. He may not break 4:00 this year, but he certainly has it in him if everything comes together (weather, pacing, etc.).I'd also like to see your requirements for your tiering of "all-timers". I don't disagree with any of those runners being all-timers, but how is Ritz not tier 1, but Virgin and Hulst are? There's no reason for Fisher to have to go to Arcadia. It would make more sense after the Dream Mile for him to try to run an 8:30-something 2 Mile at Brooks PR Invite. If you all haven't noticed, none of the early/mid season performances in cross country or track mean anything when championship season rolls around. They're frankly a waste of energy. All the fanboys on these boards from the respective states/regions get all wound up over Joe Schmoe running 14:30 in cross, or breaking some long-standing record of a great past runner, or running 4:01 in some open race in April. Then when the race that actually means something rolls around, those guys get destroyed by Mr Fisher. Destroyed.

[quote]Logician wrote:

The difference between Grant and all those other low-4:00 junior milers (except Ches) is they didn't have the strength to be two-time Foot Locker champions, and they didn't win their first Foot Locker title, run 4:02.02, and simply never lose.....all while playing soccer. The kid ran 4:02.02 in a season in which he also played soccer. Simply ridiculous. He may not break 4:00 this year, but he certainly has it in him if everything comes together (weather, pacing, etc.).

I'd also like to see your requirements for your tiering of "all-timers". I don't disagree with any of those runners being all-timers, but how is Ritz not tier 1, but Virgin and Hulst are?

There's no reason for Fisher to have to go to Arcadia. It would make more sense after the Dream Mile for him to try to run an 8:30-something 2 Mile at Brooks PR Invite. If you all haven't noticed, none of the early/mid season performances in cross country or track mean anything when championship season rolls around. They're frankly a waste of energy. All the fanboys on these boards from the respective states/regions get all wound up over Joe Schmoe running 14:30 in cross, or breaking some long-standing record of a great past runner, or running 4:01 in some open race in April. Then when the race that actually means something rolls around, those guys get destroyed by Mr Fisher. Destroyed.

/quote]

Your argument was strong until the end of the last paragraph. Then you got very biased and it kind of lost it's legitimacy with needless hate against Arcadia and fanboying over Fisher. And what you were saying before that was pretty much what I was saying, In that he may break 4. But if you put it into perspective, if he was born 2 years earlier he wouldn't have 2 foot locker titles. Because there's no way you can argue that he has better range than Cheserek did in High school. I think the only logical way ches would have been beaten is with a mass sit and kick. But most likely, Ches would have adapted his race plan to not get beat that way and that wouldn't have happened. Also, don't compare their times at Balboa, because that really doesn't matter.

I didn't put Ritz in the top 10 because I didn't want to choose between him, Nelson, Kimball and Liquori. So there are only 9 in that first tier.

Please Say More wrote:

rojo wrote:

El G was from Morocco. That's all I'm going to say.

How about you man up and say what's really on your mind instead of being passive aggressive and implying El G was doped.

Personally, I've gone back and forth thinking he was clean, then there was no possible way, and now back to a middle ground where I really don't know one way or another, but can affirmatively say his stride was more aesthetically pleasing than anybody else....that I've EVER seen run in races 800 meters or longer. Even more majestic than King David.

You notice these sissies, these PC punks will float around an Arab or a White American being doped, but will hike their skirts and scream if you mention Lagat obviously being a doper, or the more than suspicious records set by E. Africans during the EPO era.

lol Cowards all.

Noel Ignatiev Harvard Prof. wrote:

You notice these sissies, these PC punks will float around an Arab or a White American being doped, but will hike their skirts and scream if you mention Lagat obviously being a doper, or the more than suspicious records set by E. Africans during the EPO era.

lol Cowards all.

Yep. You showed them.

(I had to add a "2" because I noticed another "Logician" in another thread.)The last paragraph isn't biased at all. It's the truth. None of the other mid-season performances, things like "speed ratings", etc. matter if you can't perform to that level in the championship races. And yes, Fisher has owned everyone in any race that mattered for the last year and a half. Just because it makes you uncomfortable, doesn't make it wrong."If he was born 2 years earlier"? Come on. If we're playing the "what if" game- What if Cheserek stayed in Kenya? If Fisher was born 2 years earlier AND Ches had stayed in Kenya, yes, I believe Fisher would have 2 Foot Locker titles. What if Fisher didn't play soccer throughout his junior year? We can do this all day. (But let's not.)

I think he will go sub 4 - ~3:58 and win everything in sight. I disagree with the suggestion that he can't have future success if he breaks 4. This kid is training smart and increasing in a measured way. He will break 4 with lots more training upside down the road. If he can handle more mileage as he gets older he will have a great NCAA and pro career. He has all the tools.

[quote]Logician2 wrote:

There's no reason for Fisher to have to go to Arcadia. It would make more sense after the Dream Mile for him to try to run an 8:30-something 2 Mile at Brooks PR Invite. If you all haven't noticed, none of the early/mid season performances in cross country or track mean anything when championship season rolls around. They're frankly a waste of energy. All the fanboys on these boards from the respective states/regions get all wound up over Joe Schmoe running 14:30 in cross, or breaking some long-standing record of a great past runner, or running 4:01 in some open race in April. Then when the race that actually means something rolls around, those guys get destroyed by Mr Fisher. Destroyed.

/quote]

This^^^^^^^

Fine, I can agree with that. But does Fisher even have that great of endurance? He hasn't done anything to prove he has better endurance than say a Ben Saarel or a Sean McGorty. Obviously he can kick better than every other high schooler right now, but he hasn't broken 8:50 and his FL titles were sit and kicks in unspectacular times. Another question, was his Dream Mile 4:02 win better than Ben Saarel's Dream Mile 4:02 win? Yes, Fisher is better than Saarel was at cross country, but on the track I doubt he could outkick him. Now that is an interesting argument.

How many of those 4 even one 1 Foot Locker title, let alone 2? Just Cheserek and as good as he is at Oregon, I'm assumign his HS coach wasn't great for hiim not to run better in HS. Guy should have broken 4 in HS.

But remember. Fisher has way better endurance than all of those guys except cheserek.

The poster below nailed it perfectly....

To summarize, he won foot lockers while playing soccer. Ran 4:02 after that. Now he's running full time. Sub-4 here we come.

But he didn't win Foot Locker with spectacular times. They were sit and kick affairs just like Cheserek. I don't think you should hype him up this much. Comparing him to Webb is just not fair to any high schooler. Fisher's wins were in 15:07 and 15:03 whereas Ches (a notorious sit and kicker) won in 14:51 (Futsum second 14:52) and 14:57 (McGorty second 15:02). The last time Foot Locker was this slow was when a 10th grade Verzbicas ran 15:07 to beat a subpar field. So even Futsum and McGorty who were runner ups ran faster off of a kick than Fisher did. He doesn't have otherworldly endurance rojo. He's good but he's certainly not the second coming of cheserek. And everyone thought Ches was sure fire to break 4 after running 4:02 as a soph.

rojo wrote:

blargh wrote:

This happens every year. Remember that Cheserek, Arroyo, Burcham, Montoya, Saarel, and Haney in the last 3 years were all hyped to become the next one under four.

How many of those 4 even one 1 Foot Locker title, let alone 2? Just Cheserek and as good as he is at Oregon, I'm assumign his HS coach wasn't great for hiim not to run better in HS. Guy should have broken 4 in HS.

But remember. Fisher has way better endurance than all of those guys except cheserek.

To summarize, he won foot lockers while playing soccer. Ran 4:02 after that. Now he's running full time. Sub-4 here we come.

You sure Fisher has way better endurance than all those guys except Cheserek? Arroyo soloed to an 8:51 3200. Saarel, Montoya and Haney went 8:45, 8:47 and 8:48. Based on his 4:02 and 8:55 I'd hardly say Fisher has way better endurance. 15:06 and 15:01 at FootLocker don't indicate massive endurance off a 4:02 mile.