FL
1. Ostberg
2. Maton
3. Dressel
FL
1. Ostberg
2. Maton
3. Dressel
I think Brannigan and Miller are both good runners but they're good Northeast good runners. With Brannigan doing footlocker, I think he can do top 7- best at top 5. He's an inconsistant xc runner. Miller wins a lot but I don't know if he's broken 15 yet (maybe a high-14). I think he might make top 10 at NXN. Neither are in competition to win either race. I think they could both be about 15-15:10 on a good day depending on the field and conditions.
Alright. I was thinking she was a jr that makes sense though.
You guys are all being ridiculous. I remember this two years ago when Cheserek was about to defend. I don't understand why so many people are discounting Grant Fisher.
His accolades:
Footlocker Champ--15:06, a solid time in a relatively tactical race
New Balance Indoor Mile Champ--4:09ish in a very tactical race
Dream Mile Champ--4:02.02 with each lap faster than the one before it
Brooks PR Champ--8:51 with a 26 last 200
Faster by 20+ seconds on the course this year
He hasn't lost a high school individual race since his state track 1600 Sophomore year and even then, he lost by literally less than one hundredth of a second. He finds a way to win races, and enjoys being the underdog. Somehow, someway, you guys are labeling him the underdog in this race, and that suits him very nicely.
Dressel is maybe 15 seconds faster than last year, and his Footlocker race, in my opinion, was his absolute best day. He doesn't have a great kick. He's not going to beat Fisher.
Ostberg finished 10 slots behind Fisher last year, and while much improved, he hasn't shown the finishing speed necessary to get away from Fisher. If Ostberg tries to make a long push for home, the entire group of top boys can hunt him down. It's too risky; he'll go home if he tries to go big.
Hunter is running about what McGorty ran as a Senior, maybe a bit faster. Incredibly, that's not even that good this year. McGorty ran 15:06 at Footlocker as a senior. Hunter might touch sub-15, but remember, Fisher is 20+ seconds better than last year. He has it in him to run low 14:40s, and if the pace isn't that fast, his kick is still better than Hunter's, even though Hunter's kick is quite good.
Maton is not running much better than last year. Maybe 10 seconds faster. He's a stud, with his 4:03 mile and nice kick, but he'll find it hard to break 15, and runners like Dressel have proven to be able to break him with surges.
Mantz has just started to run again--if you're reading this, STOP! Take more time off! Don't reinjure yourself!--and isn't going to be factor. Much of what I wrote about Ostberg applies to Mantz.
Anderson could have given Fisher an incredible battle. I still think Fisher would find a way to win, but I can't argue this one well.
Feel free to argue with me. Footlocker should be an incredible race. Obviously Anderson's gonna win NXN.
Convincing discussion to me.
Fisher has an amazing range as both a XC runner and especially a track athlete. Oh yes, he is an athlete - big difference then being just a runner.
Decent analysis but premature and missing some top guys. Let's have this conversation after the regionals.
Fair point. Who am I missing though? I guess Hacker, Tamagno, and Reiser, although we'll see who makes it through regionals.
I will be at the Midwest regional and will have more to say after that and the other regionals.
On the girls side watch out for Ryen Frazier (Wesley Frazier's sister) who has run a 10:12 3200 and a 16:44 5k in the past two weeks.
I'm not sure who's going to win but you can't ignore Austin Tamagno. He set the Freshman national record in the 1600, sophomore mile record (4:06 for the full mile), has run 8:56 in the 3200 all before his junior season started. This year he won Woodbrige in 14:04 and set a new course record at Mt. SAC in 14:23. I understand that there are some great runners right now but to exclude Tamagno from the top 3 of FL or NXN is careless.
I'll give you 5:
1. Fisher
2. Hunter
3. Maton
4. Ostberg
------------
5. Pollard
The line divides the 4 guys I could see winning it from everyone else.
His name is on the registration confirmation list.
Shaolin Soldier wrote:
I'll give you 5:
1. Fisher
2. Hunter
3. Maton
4. Ostberg
------------
5. Pollard
The line divides the 4 guys I could see winning it from everyone else.
What the heck, I'll stick with this.
Alex Ostberg is looking great, though. I say he takes it on midway but it winds up a 600m race between the other 3.
Fisher
Hunter
Tamagno
Dressel
Maton
Ostberg
Girls
Frazier
Rohrer
Schwartz
Debalsi
Hunter ran 14:36 at FL South yesterday. Winning by 18 seconds.
That course is ridiculously fast. What is that, like the 5th fastest time now? The problem is that rarely do the top runners from the South run within 20 seconds of their McAlpine time at Balboa.Didn't Templeton go 14:35 last year? And I know McGorty went 14:28 a couple years ago.In my opinion, Alan Webb's 14:43 in the rain and mud is the best all-time performance at FL South. And we know what Ritz did to him two weeks later.Check out the pic:https://runteamwebb.wordpress.com/2013/12/03/cross-country-countdown-11/
LoudounObserver wrote:
Hunter ran 14:36 at FL South yesterday. Winning by 18 seconds.
NXN Guys:
1. Anderson
2. Tamagno
3. Reiser
Rocha, Webb, Hacker, Millar will be close behind for that 3rd spot. Should be a showdown between Anderson and Tamagno. If Tamagno wins he's got a case for the overall National Championship, especially if FL is close or an upset.
NXN Girls:
1. O'Keefe
2. Burda
3. Jenks
Rainsberger, Donaghu, Belf will be close behind but this one is really wide open.
NXN Guys Teams:
1. F-M NY
2. La Salle RI
3. Brea Olinda CA
Utah has gotten a lot of hype but the lack of any racing except for regionals for them should be a factor. Brea will finally get challenged this year for the first time since Woodbridge and will rise to the occasion.
NXN Girls:
1. F-M NY
2. Great Oak CA
3. Saugus CA
FM and Great Oak are way above everyone else in the field. Third could just as easily be A. Fork UT, Saratoga NY, or Unionville PN.
FL Guys:
1. Maton
2. Fisher
3. Hunter
4. Ostberg
I think Hunter will rise to the occasion on the national stage and give Fisher and Maton a run for their money. I think Dressel will try something but will get passed at the end a la washington state meet.
FL Girls:
1. Rohrer
2. Schwartz
3. DeBalsi
Rohrer should win but there are a ton of girls who looked like they could of gone harder at their regional but were content with just making it.
FL
Fisher
Maton
Hunter
Ostberg goes for it mid race but blows up with 600 to go
NXN
Anderson
Hacker
Millar
Nobody comes close to Tanner
NXN teams
AF
FM
Davis
AF has two guys under 15, and a 15:17 team average. I dont see anyone matching that
Tamagno isn't running NXN. It'll be interesting to see Brea vs. Summit, the two teams who lost their front runners. Which will place higher? Can either crack the top 15?
FL:
1. Fisher
2. Maton
3. Hunter
Nxn:
1. Anderson
2. Reiser
3. Kholsa
Best overall runners
1. Fisher
2. Maton
3. Hunter
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