rojo wrote:
I 100% stand by what I wrote. There is ZERO reason to think he'll break 3:30 other than the fact he trains with Farah.
Let me take a few of these counter points 1 by 1.
Perspectivation wrote:Let's look at a couple points you left out.
1) he didn't break 4:00 until late in college because that is when he began working out with Centro, Wheating, Acosta, McNamara etc. Is it illogical to think that actually switching your training, and working out with the top 1500 guys in college (now in the country) would help your 1500 out?
No, it's not illogical to think that having a 10,000 runner train with 1500 runners that he will improve his 1500. What is illogical is to think he'll become world class at the event. Totally illogical.
How many 3:29s have the 1500 specialists above run? Zero.
Does the reverse work? When is Centro going to run 26 for 10k.
Perspectivation wrote:
2) he was 2nd in a loaded PAC 10 1500 on a 1500, 5k, 10k triple with the 1500 final being last. He split up centro and wheating and beat several sub 3:40 (specialist) guys like Heath.
Great so he can run with some top US collegians at 1500. What does that have to do with running 3:29 as people are speculating about?
He ran with some good guys at 1500. That doesn't make him or them 329 guys.
Perspectivation wrote:
3) he ran 4:01 in high school despite training for strength in the 5000 and 10000.
Yet everyone says he's improved so much at 10,000 because he worked on his speed so much in HS/college and was relatively low-mileage. You can't have it both ways.
Perspectivation wrote:
4) he ran 3:50 indoors. How many Americans have ever done that?
How many have tried to do it?
Perspectivation wrote:
6) this part is mostly speculation, but the vibe that comes out of the NOP camp in my reading is that Rupp is somewhere right in there in terms of ability with Farah and Centro when it comes to 1500. If they thought Centro was able to break the indoor AR in the mile, why not make the effort? but it was Rupp who Salazar believed was fit enough for it.
I can't answer that one for you. I wondered that myself but Centro pretty much had a zero of an indoor season so I'm assuming he wasn't in shape.
Perspectivation wrote:
7) none of this guarantees that Rupp runs under 3:30, Farah had the perfect race for his 3:28, but I believe Rupp is not more than a second behind Farah on any given day, and perhaps less.
8) when was the last time you saw Rupp get really crushed in a 1500 or mile? The limiting factor here is how the race unfolds. I think best scenario for Rupp is a fast race from start to finish, just like Farah had it.
I think Rupp's success in 1500/miles is a bit over stated. He's done well in some time trials indoors when no one else is in shape that time of year. But what big competitive 1500/miles has he run and done well in? I really can't think of any.
He was a DNF after the 2012 Games in Lausanne, he was a DNF indoors this year as well at New Balance. Last year, he was 5th in the UK in 3:52.
Yes he's run 3:50 for the indoor mile time trial. But go read renato Canova's post from last month where he states that indoors is faster than outdoors. That very well could be true for rupp as during his indoor time trials, he's running with zero wind and running exactly one mile.
In a real race with a competive field, you have to run more than a mile.
Rupp's 3:50.92 indoor mile is probably very similar to the 3:52 mile he ran outdoors in his last competitive mile (5th last summer in Glasgow).
But let's say he runs that 3:50.92 again. Do you guys realize that 3:50 is a LONG WAY OFF Of 3:30? And Rupp's better suited for a mile than 1500.
A 3:29 is equivalent to 3:46. I'd be surprised if he can do anything better than a 3:50 equivalent for 1500 in a competitive field.
His 3:50.92 pb is equivalent to 3:33.8 for 1500. 3:32 will be GREAT for rupp. That's doable. 3:29 no chance.