Will KENENISA BEKELE get the WR at Chicago?

No, he is padding his retirement plan.

First, Chicago has WR conditions once every few years and, given last year perfect weather, I seriously doubt it would be fast this year too. Then, I saw Bekele in Paris and - when alone - he faded ; his splits were 29:35 - 29:22 - 29:42 - 29:52 meaning that his not fully ready to run fast alone. Kipsang in Berlin ran 29:16 - 29:04 - 29:41 - 29:10

Well? wrote:

reed wrote:

since when does running 2:05 mean you can run 2:03low

When its one of the greatest long distance runners of all time and the owner of the IIRC 6th best marathon debut, it very well may

And since the 2:05:03 was a debut on a slower course.

You've hit the nail on the head. I think there are some of Geb's marks that kenenisa will never match, just because he never aimed to do so: like Geb's HMarathon WR 58:55 in 2006, and his numerous indoor records earlier in his career.

Nevertheless kenenisa is the best XC runner ever, and Haile never excelled at XC. The one last major mark of Geb's that Kenny is still chasing is at the marathon.

You need to correlate those splits with the course profile. Still I agree, KB is a ways from 2:03:21

Mat G wrote:

You've hit the nail on the head. I think there are some of Geb's marks that kenenisa will never match, just because he never aimed to do so: like Geb's HMarathon WR 58:55 in 2006, and his numerous indoor records earlier in his career.

Nevertheless kenenisa is the best XC runner ever, and Haile never excelled at XC. The one last major mark of Geb's that Kenny is still chasing is at the marathon.

Absolutely. Although I think Bekele's track 5K WR was the best race ever (he ran so much of it alone), and his 10K was great, in my opinion his best performances were in XC. Now, if he can pull off the WR in the marathon, or at least break Geb's time, he can lay claim to best ever. But even then it would be an arguable claim because Geb held so many world records.

Age group record holder wrote:

I'll give $100 to charity if he does it

If you have $100 to spare why don't you just go and give that to charity regardless of Bekele's performance?

insider42197 wrote:First, Chicago has WR conditions once every few years and, given last year perfect weather, I seriously doubt it would be fast this year too.

If you flip a coin and it lands heads, the next time you flip it the odds are what?

Age group record holder wrote:

I'll give $100 to charity if he does it

Really? Great!

Here's my address:

2242 White Oak Court

Minneola, FL 34755

Seriously, thanks again!

Screw donating to charity and just dump a bucket of ice water on your head.

8467 wrote:

Age group record holder wrote:

I'll give $100 to charity if he does it

If you have $100 to spare why don't you just go and give that to charity regardless of Bekele's performance?

Nope donating is lame dumping water on your head is what's trendy now.

reed wrote:

Well? wrote:

He's already run 2:05:03

since when does running 2:05 mean you can run 2:03low

Since the time it was done by the greatest runner in history who ran solo the last 12k on a more difficult course.

insightlessness wrote:

reed wrote:

since when does running 2:05 mean you can run 2:03low

Since the time it was done by the greatest runner in history who ran solo the last 12k on a more difficult course.

Ummm....No. No, it just doesn't.

Elite runners tend to improve on their marathon debuts.

The discussion is based on the assumption of a good weather day.

So if I flip a coin and it's heads, what are the chances that the next time I flip the coin that it's heads?

A lot of truth to this. Not counting bends, there are about 33 right angle turns on the course.

Some people think Dubai is a short course since unknowns have run some unexpectedly fast times on the course. But Dubai only has 8 right angle turns and 2 hairpins. I never understood why Dubai didn't reconfigure the course slightly to avoid those hairpin turns. Seems like you would lose more time and efficiency on a hairpin than on two right angle turns.

Paris isn't really that much more difficult than Berlin. It has a total 20 meter climb from 30-40k, which explains the 29:52. And a net downhill from 20-30k. So that 29:42 split is def. kind of slow for KB.

http://runinfinity.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/profile_paris_marathon.jpg