Galen Rupp's 5000m Ceiling

I think he can run 12:55. More than respectable, but this is not an event that he has shown the skill, will, or temperament to run super fast times in. So as of now he seems headed for no better than that. That's my definition of ceiling, and I like it better than "potential," which is a theoretical construct too easily divorced from reality.

not sure if any else has predicted this time, but i'll say 12:55.

(again, that's 12:55).

would that be

12:55.00

or

12:55.99?

Big difference.

Do you know that Rupp trains? Do you know that when people train on something they generally get better at it?

Eva Dense wrote:

ryan foreman wrote:

Look, at 28 years old Rupp is only getting stronger....Show me evidence of that in Rupp before you even get to his ceiling in the 5000M.

Show us evidence of all runners who have "magically" gotten stronger with age? EVERYONE starts to slow down with age and high mileage. Provide evidence of what Rupp is "doing" that makes his forever improving ability legit.

ryan foreman wrote:

Do you know that Rupp trains? Do you know that when people train on something they generally get better at it?

What does he train on, and is it something that WADA might frown upon?

ryan foreman wrote:

Do you know that Rupp trains? Do you know that when people train on something they generally get better at it?

Your belief is not reality.

Major Difference wrote:

would that be

12:55.00

or

12:55.99?

Big difference.

If pressed, I would say 12:55.

12:55ish

Is Ventolin not going to fire up his calculator and come up with a time Rupp will never run

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Is Ventolin not going to fire up his calculator and come up with a time Rupp will never run

Lol I hope he does

Kenya.

12:55.

And just get some chocolate milk powder and mix it in.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Is Ventolin not going to fire up his calculator and come up with a time Rupp will never run

Rupp is busy trying to figure out the how-does-a-diaper work thing. The time for PRs is gone for the next few years.

If he could go faster, he'd be trying this year, because the next three years he'll be racing and have too many excuses to make a serious effort.

And he's not trying this year. The only Rupp-certified time trial for him was DL Eugene, he has no other chances.

You know a whole lot of East Africans still run insane times during Championship Years, and they still show up and beat Americans during the actually races. Sooooooooo...

his mile indoor pr and outdoor 10k would lead you to believe he could be a killer at 5k. it just hasnt culminated to a stunning time yet. sub 1250, would not be a huge leap ot think about, at least I dont think

1955 wrote:

I don't see any signs he's getting any faster, at least not over 5k. I suspect he's hit his 5k PR already.

Really? Those AR this winter and his 10k with huge easy finish weren't enough of a sign for you? The fact he is now competitive in diamond league 5ks?

Huh....

Odds for Rupp are to run a 12.55 as his fastest time.

I'll play the devil's advocate here then and say ... 12:55

Would you say Rupp has already been in 3:30-31 shape? I remember the oxy race where him and Mo seemed very very even at 1500, both finishing in 3:34. Then Mo eventually runs 3:28... I can't be made to believe that he just magically found SIX SECONDS on Rupp.

Do you think Rupp has just been a little unlucky with 5ks? I can't imagine he just would have been dropped in Paris by guys he handily beat just a month prior. It seems like 5k should by all accounts be his best event.

Galen Rupp Fanatic wrote:

I guess that Cliff Clavin is right about Galen Rupp's 5000m ceiling. He is now 28 years old and he has had many cracks at the 5000m, and he has indeed brushed up against a ceiling right around 13 minutes, just as Cliff said he would. He has broken 13 minutes one time. He does a good job at 10,000m though.

1) Cliff crappy face said 100 things about Rupp that ended up being wrong, previous posts about his abilities cancel out following ones about his ceiling since they contradict.

2) It's possible Rupp has hit his 5k ceiling ability wise, but his ceiling isn't his pr. His ceiling is a decent amount under his pr, and he just hasn't run it yet.