dunes runner
I understood perfectly what you meant by stating they would need to be able to run 26:50 in order to medal in a more tactial race at the Worlds/Olympics; however, my friend not MANY elite athletes are capable of that:
26:22.75 .Haile Gebreselassie (Eth)......Hengelo '98
26:27.85..Paul Tergat (Ken)..............Brussels '97
26:36.26..Paul Koech (Ken)...............Oslo /97
26:38.08..Salah Hissou (Mor).............Brussels '96
26:49.38..Sammy Kipketer (Ken)...........Brussels '02
26:49.90..Assefa Mezegebu (Eth)..........Brussels '02
26:50.20..Richard Limo (Ken).............Brussels '02
26:50.67..Albert Chepkirui (Ken).........Brussels '02
26:52.87..John Cheruiyot Korir (Ken).....Brussels '02
26:58.38...Yobes Ondeki (Ken)-retired
27:04.20...Abraham Chebil (Ken)..........Stanford '01
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As you can see there are only 9 men to ever run faster than 26:55 and not all of them will be at the Worlds (Remember Kenyan will be the only country with 4 10000m runners, maybe they will be of the above group? Maybe not) It is safe to say that there will not be more than 5 people at the starting line capable of running 26:50 in a ideal, pace raced. If the Americans were to take charge of the race and run the 1st 5000m in 13:39 there wouldn't be much surging by ANYONE!
Surging is not done at such a fast pace and if it is only 1 or 2 athletes would be capable of substaining such punishment. I am also going with the fact that I think Meb and Alan will be in better shape than their 27:13 and 27:33 (respectfully) pr's. Believe me if our women X-COUNTRY TEAM could blossom and pull a SILVER in one year, Meb could improve slightly to be a medal threat ie BRONZE,4th, or 5th!!
Vipam