That 3:47 was a bit of an eye opener for me. I wouldn't be surprised with 3:44 or 3:27 high this year and a world record attempt in 2015-2018
That 3:47 was a bit of an eye opener for me. I wouldn't be surprised with 3:44 or 3:27 high this year and a world record attempt in 2015-2018
I think he's (or he'll be) in 3:28 flat form this year.
Ventolin, what do you think?
Souliman is very talented and has balls but he is not consistent he has great coach tho probably the best middle distance runner in the world
He's the next Ramzi.
Between him, Kiprop, and Kiplagat (and Dibaba and Aregawi in the women's field), I'd love to see at least one mid-distance record go down this year. However, I just don't think it'll happen, unless someone runs a 1000M time trial or something. 3.26.00 is insane, with the 3:43 being almost as crazy.
3:47.32 is equal to 3:30.48, which is just the 4th fastest 1500m run this year behind Kiprop, Kiplagat, and Makhloufi.
hardly worth WR talks
and i should mention that souleiman himself ran under 3:30.48 (3:30.16 in doha)
GoldenMiles wrote:
Between him, Kiprop, and Kiplagat (and Dibaba and Aregawi in the women's field), I'd love to see at least one mid-distance record go down this year. However, I just don't think it'll happen, unless someone runs a 1000M time trial or something. 3.26.00 is insane, with the 3:43 being almost as crazy.
If any of the women bother to run it, then with some good pacing, they could probably take the Women's Mile Record.
There's a VERY small chance that the men's 1500m record could go down, since Kiprop managed a 3:27 last year, which has been exceedingly rare since Lagat and El Guerrouj left.
There's an even smaller chance that the men's mile record could go down, if only because there aren't as many opportunities to run it.
There is NO chance that the women's 1500m record will fall.
At the moment, you have a 3:27 and some 3:28-3:30 caliber runners chasing a 3:26 men's record.
On the women's side, the record is 3:50. That's a MASSIVE leap from 3:55.
Agree with you. Would love to see the women's mile go down, although it's so rarely run. What is the women's 1000M like?
Ben L Wrong wrote:I think he's (or he'll be) in 3:28 flat form this year.
Ventolin, what do you think?
we don't really have lot to go on except he is young & helluva a fighter
off his 3rd place over 800 in moscow last year, i'm pretty sure he coud go 1'43-flat at peak ( that was a semi-tactical race & he went 1'43.7 )
we have no idea about his 400 speed, but some different lines of fit assuming peak 1'43-flat speed with usual 46-mid/47-low speed these "pure" 1500 guys invariably have :
1'43.00 with
46.50 -> 3'30.13 , 3'47.49
46.75 -> 3'29.28 , 3'46.47
47.00 -> 3'28.43 , 3'45.46
experience tells me that the middle line looks reasonable for season peak
he shouda go 3'29+ this year in a perfect race
interesting to note, hicham may have had no better than same 1'43-flat speed ( but that does need more info which we never seem to get ) but likely wouda run it off much slower 400 ability, meaning vastly superior endurance
47.75 -> 3'25.88 , 3'42.42
it is these apparently small differences which manifest as huge differences at 1500 - in this case hicham having same 800 ability as the somali but having to do it off ~ 1s slower 400 ability
ventolin3 wrote:
interesting to note, hicham may have had no better than same 1'43-flat speed ( but that does need more info which we never seem to get ) but likely wouda run it off much slower 400 ability, meaning vastly superior endurance
Which is a classic tell of EPO use.
What makes you think he is a Somali?
fasdfasdf wrote:Which is a classic tell of EPO use.
that wasn't my point or of interest
point was that his endurance "factor" is not existent in today's guys & that may be simply because hicham knew his speed limitations & worked far more on endurance than current guys who eschew endurance to more speed
( asbel & this guy do 1500/800 & not 1500/3k )
that limited speed woud still likely have manifested it self as ~ 1'43-flat back in '98 which is impressive
current guys, if you want to go the speed route to 3'26wr, you better have intrinsic 800 speed of ~ 1'42-flat, even though they may not run that many 800s
( asbel hasn't run many last coupla years but had to be in 1'42-low/mid shape in monaco last year )
quite simply, i don't see this kid threatening 3'26 until he shows/indicates intrinsic 1'42-low/mid
Gggee wrote:
What makes you think he is a Somali?
Djiboutians are ethnic Somalis.
Well, he's only 21.
He ran 3:30.31 two years ago at the age of 19.
He has run 1:43.63 for the 800.
He has great potential.
hicham's achievements offer some disturbance of thought
the best possible line for the somali i can fathom currently is ( although i think other line is more his current limit ) :
47.00 / 1'43.00 -> 3'28.43 , 3'45.46
i don't think any 1500 guy of this era can beat this endurance ( 47.00/1'43.00 )
when hicham was starting out in early '90s, i highly doubt he was as quick as 47.75 estimate for peak
he likely had something slower & then trained down to this with speed/endurance work
i'd imagine a prelim for him back then wouda been at best 48-flat
if hicham was starting out now, i'd have said he wouda been looking at career bests of
above line * (48.00/47.00 ) ->
1'45.2 , 3'32.9 , 3'50.3
meaning, he wouda probably been told to try the 5k from onset as he woud never have been expected to crack 3'32 in his career with 48.00 speed
it is disturbing he got down to 3'26 & theoretical 1'43.0...
The problem is that there are 3-4 excellent runners (Kiprop, Kiplagat, Souleiman, Makkk(sp?)) but none is dominant like ELG. He had a team of pacers and time trials set up for him on the circuit. When is this gonna happen now?
I would like to see some pacers (Som, Scherer...) run
like clockwork to help Kiprop attack the WR!!!
However, the circuit is perhaps more exciting now and this is cool too!!
ElG could go way faster than 47:00 over 400m.
I estimate 46:3.
yyy wrote:ElG could go way faster than 47:00 over 400m.
I estimate 46:3.
nonsense
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=1373258&thread=1373258#1373258Hicham said 49-50 seconds for 400m and 1:45 for 800m. I then asked his coach the same questions-he said he has run 48 for 400m...
He said he thought he could probably run 1:43 low at 800
Have to say I'm in agreement with Ventolin on this one!!
There is no way El G could run sub 47 for 400 at any time in his career.
He'd do well to break 48 in an open at peak with a few circuit attempts. Maybe 47 high. I don't think he was better than a 1:43 low 800 guy at peak either. Otherwise he would have run a few on the circuit hoping to win some.
I don't think we know enough to state with any kind of certainty what Souleiman can run in an open 400 at moment.
Looking at his recent 3:47 mile and 1500 runs, as impressive as they are, there is nothing to suggest any threat to El G' s WRs. You can get a lot more out of those races when you look at the stats of the race, especially the closing 4 x 100s.
I'd say, based on what I've seen, 3:29.0 and 3:46.0 look 'about' right for him in a perfect race at moment, with even pace and drafting to the bell. Of course if he's close enough to get drafting over the last lap from likes of Kiprop or Kiplagat, then slightly faster.
ventolin^3 wrote:
if hicham was starting out now, i'd have said he wouda been looking at career bests of
above line * (48.00/47.00 ) ->
1'45.2 , 3'32.9 , 3'50.3
meaning, he wouda probably been told to try the 5k from onset as he woud never have been expected to crack 3'32 in his career with 48.00 speed
it is disturbing he got down to 3'26 & theoretical 1'43.0...
how did lagat get down to 3-26
same way as guerrouj
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