Sagarin wrote:
Ventolin, you seriously think Rupp can get down to 7:20? And you see him improving 21 seconds from his indoor 5,000?
It is not Ventolin, it is his calculator that thinks so.
Sagarin wrote:
Ventolin, you seriously think Rupp can get down to 7:20? And you see him improving 21 seconds from his indoor 5,000?
It is not Ventolin, it is his calculator that thinks so.
The 5k world record averages 7:34 per 3k. That is 4 seconds off Rupp's PR for 3k. So of course not. You need at least 7:24 speed for 3k to have a chance.
The 5k is the best record in the books and I highly doubt anyone will threaten it in a long time.
Horst Girth wrote:
First things first. IN the right race, Rupp could break 12:50. This could happen this year. Gebremeskel talked a month or two ago about wanting to return to Paris where he ran so fast in '12 (I think it was Paris.)
Could be a problem that Rupp is to become a dad about then.
Should Rupp break 12:50, it becomes plausible that he can go faster.
yes, someone needs to speak to Galen about this problem.
ventolin^3 wrote:
i must admit i'm disappointed here in the "conservative" thinking of many guys here, which is surprising for a supposed "young crowd"
i'm far from being a youngster & can't understand such timid thinking as maybe 12'50, or perhaps even 12'45 - 12'47 for the boldest predictions here
i'm of the age group supposed to have timid predictions not majority of guys here !
this same timid thinking that predicted mo-3'28 & 6 guys 12'46/12'49
at his peak this year, Rupp shoud have ~ one of these lines of fit :
51.1 / 1'47.6 ->
3'31.0
4'46.9
7'22.2
12'41.8
26'31.0
or
50.7 / 1'47.0 ->
3'30.2
4'46.1
7'21.3
12'41.3
26'32.6
or
50.2 / 1'46.2 ->
3'29.0
4'44.7
7'19.8
12'39.6
26'31.7
an experienced eye tends me in direction of last set of estimates
if he gets an ~ perfect race this year, Rupp has a serious shot at 7'20 & 12'40
people stop this timid thinking !
Interesting lines of fit - hope you're right. It would certainly be fun to see Rupp [or any current runner] put up times like these.
Observation: The fastest anyone Rupp's age or older has ever run for 5000m is 12:49.04 [Longosiwa at age 30 in Paris in 2012.] Seems like running REALLY fast for 5000m has typically been a young person's game.
Anyway, I'm refining my best guess for what Rupp's 5000m PR will be at the end of this summer to 12:51.5 +/- 1.5 seconds = breaks Lagat's AR, doesn't break 12:50. I don't claim this reflects some absolute limit on Rupp's potential but rather the way I think Rupp and Salazar are likely to approach this season's 5000m races + what other runners seem capable of right now.
Renato Canova wrote:
I think it's not correct looking at the PB of the best athletes, in every distance, for understanding their real value.
For example, Mo Farah could run in Monaco a type of race very well paced (the best after the retirement of El Guerrouj) and improved his PB of more than 5.0 (3:28.81 vs 3:33.98), but his real value was already very close 3:30.0 in 2012, when he won in Eagle Rock (3:34.66) ahead Galen Rupp (3:34.75). So, he was lucky to find this opportunity. But, if he was not in Monaco, who today could suppose he has the ability running 3:28.8 ?
Both Gebrselassie abd Bekele never had this opportunity, so looking at their official PB is a mistake, if we want to suppose their real value.
Kenenisa ran 3 times in his life 1500m : 2 times in Shanghai, in September, at the end of very tough seasons when he won everything in 5000 and 10000m, when already with little training, for giving image to the meeting that is organized by his management, and a third time won in Stockholm in 2006 as preparation for 5000m. In all this cases, his times were almost the same (3:33.08, 3:33.13 in 2006 and 3:32.35 in 2007), this few days after running 10000m in Bruxelles.
Haile ran 3:31.76 indoor in Stuttgart (1st Feb 1998), but the day before, in Dortmund, was 6th in a competition of 800m in Dortmund with 1:50.39. Can somebody suppose this time in 800m could be his best at the moment ?
You need to understand that, at the moment, nobody can threaten the WR of 5000 and 10000m. Nor Rupp, neither Farah, nor some new Kenyan, neither some new Ethiopian.
We speak about two athletes completely out of the normal parameters.
Haile ran 18 times under 13' in the period 1995 - 2004, and 9 times under 27' in the period 1995 - 2007. After his first Marathon (London 2002) came back on the track, and during the winter 2003 ran 2 miles in 8:04.69 on indoor track.
Kenenisa ran 6 times under 12:50 and 21 times under 13:00.
In 10000m, 4 times under 26:30 and 8 times under 26:50, the most part of these remaining alone after the first half.
He has averages, for the best 10 personal performances, of 7:29.9 (3000), 12:47.8 (5000) and 26:39 (10000m).
His performances cover a period between 2003 and 2012, and, in my opinion, there is still the possibility of running inside his 10 best times (wait his 10000m in July...).
These two athletes were able to win, and to go for record without real rabbits.
For beating a record, we need to find athletes able to exhalt themselves as front runners, and this is not the case of Mo Farah, may be more similar the mentality of Galen Rupp. But his value is honestly too far for looking at a WR.
And, when we speak about a WR, we need to be lucky. I had the case of Shaheen, who in 2006 was in very much better shape than in 2004, but his WR remains Bruxelles 2004, not Zurich 2006, because of the level of the rabbits and the bad weather.
It's funny to create hypothesis, but the reality normally is very much different.
These are all very good points, and you guys that don't understand the sport should read through them and think about them (i.e. anyone who thinks that Rupp could or will run a WR 5000). Especially the stats about top-10 times and number of times under 13:00. Just because Rupp ran 3:50.9 INDOORS does not mean he is the second coming. John Walker ran UNDER 3:50 several times and was endurance-trained and he could not have run much under 13:00 or 13:05 (my estimate).
Also, stop using indoor times as any kind of indicator. With a 200m banked track the times don't really mean very much (evidenced by Rupp running 3:50.9i, 7:30i, 13:01i and 8:07.4i and not being able to better any of those times outdoors except for the 5000).
Sagarin wrote:Ventolin, you seriously think Rupp can get down to 7:20? And you see him improving 21 seconds from his indoor 5,000?
13'01i for him is nonsense, albeit outdoor 5k is probably 6 - 8s quicker than an indoor
you have to ask yourself 2 simple questions :
- do you see Rupp capable of ~ 26'30 at season peak ?
- do you see Rupp capable of 3'29/3'30 at season peak ?
if yes to both, then he has a very realistic shot of 7'20/12'40 in a perfect race
the perfect race is far bigger problem for Rupp ( or any other guy ) than actually running the theoretical times
- do you see Rupp capable of ~ 26'30 at season peak ?
Your calculator is drunk.
- do you see Rupp capable of 3'29/3'30 at season peak ?
Your calculator is extra-drunk.
dkny64 wrote:
There are a fair number of guys on the all-time 10k list who also have solid PRs at 3k and 5k, and I think 2 of them bracket realistic expectations for Rupp at 5k this season. Let's start with -
Rupp's PRs at 3k, 5k, 10k: 7:30.16, 12:58.90, 26:44.36
now compare to -
Eliud Kipchoge: 7:27.66, 12:46.53, 26:49.02 [+ 59:25, 2:04:05]
and to -
Sammy Kipketer: 7:33.62, 12:52.33, 26:49.38
I see no reason to believe Rupp is ready to beat Kipchoge's 5000m time, which makes Kipchoge the #4 performer at 5000m of all time. Kipchoge has a better 3k PR than Rupp, a marginally worse 10k PR [but the 10k was never a focus event for Kipchoge] and has more recently posted very fast 1/2 marathon and marathon times. Also won one of the great 5000m races ever. There's simply no way Galen Rupp is currently a better 5000m runner than Kipchoge at his best.
On the other side, Rupp has Sammy Kipketer beaten at both 3000m and 10000m, which were both events Kipketer contested frequently. I see no reason to doubt that in the right race, Rupp can beat Kipketer's 5000m PR of 12:52.33. Doesn't guarantee he'll get in the right race or execute if he does, but he has the basic tools.
My bottom line: I think Rupp's current 5k potential is 12:49.5 +/- 2.5 seconds [= 12:47 flat - 12:52 flat]
If you're a Rupp fan and want an example that tilts to the faster end of that range, consider
Sileshi Sihine: 7:29.02, 12:47.04, 26:39.69
[I'm impressed that Rupp now has 3k and 10k PRs this close to Sihine's]
If you're not a Rupp fan and think even 12:52 flat is overly optimistic, consider
Paul Tergat: 7:28.70, 12:49.87, 26:27.85
[better than Rupp at 3k, much better at 10k, barely dipped under 12:50 for 5000m despite contesting the event many times.]
Well played and well written with a lot of data to back it up, and just what I was saying:
A 26:44 should make you able to run 12:50 (+ or - 2 secs) as long as you have similar abilities at 5k and 10k.
ventolin^3 wrote:
Sagarin wrote:Ventolin, you seriously think Rupp can get down to 7:20? And you see him improving 21 seconds from his indoor 5,000?13'01i for him is nonsense, albeit outdoor 5k is probably 6 - 8s quicker than an indoor
you have to ask yourself 2 simple questions :
- do you see Rupp capable of ~ 26'30 at season peak ?
- do you see Rupp capable of 3'29/3'30 at season peak ?
if yes to both, then he has a very realistic shot of 7'20/12'40 in a perfect race
the perfect race is far bigger problem for Rupp ( or any other guy ) than actually running the theoretical times
Interesting + glad to see you state the perfect race part explicitly.
What do you get for Rupp for 3000m and 5000m if you use somewhat more conservative estimates for 1500m and 10000m? Say, 3:31.5 and 26:35? In fact, I'd be curious to see your line(s) of fit for those two values all the way from 400m to 1/2 marathon.
related question: What men's track WR performance since, say, 1990 comes closest in your eyes to having been a perfect race for the record setter?
stats mean absolutely nothing as do all-time lists
guys don't run against an all-time list
did mo run against an all-time list in that 1500 ???
did the 6 lead guys in paris-'12 5k run against an all-time list ???
anyone beating on about all-time lists is wasting their time
anyone recall bolt went from 10.03pb to 9.76pb ( 2nd fastest ever ) & then 9.72wr in 3 successive 100s albeit end of 1 season & start of next ???
anyone think he knew or cared about all-time list when he was lining up to run his 9.76 ???
elite guys go out to run v clock, not against basically meaningless all-time lists
as for walker, i seriously hope you are not suggesting his 5k or 10k ability was even on the same planet as Rupp's ???
His 26:44.36 is worth 1251 points on the IAAF tables. The same as 12:48.93 and 7:28.21.
It isn't pointless to discuss his potential in a perfectly paced race. All athletes pick a goal to train for and set the pace for their intervals. It would be very interesting to know what Salazar and Rupp have in mind for 5000 and 10,000 goal pace.
Most athletes have ambitious goals. It's what drives them to get better. Whether or not Rupp gets in a well paced race, if he does achieve 12:42/26:30 fitness, he should certainly be able to at least win a few big races in the coming couple years, and mostly likely run at least 12:47/26:39.
26:30.12, 12:42.53 and 7:24.47 are good for 1275 points.
dkny64 wrote:What do you get for Rupp for 3000m and 5000m if you use somewhat more conservative estimates for 1500m and 10000m? Say, 3:31.5 and 26:35?
3'31.5 / 26'35 ->
4'47.7
7'23.3
12'43.7
In fact, I'd be curious to see your line(s) of fit for those two values all the way from 400m to 1/2 marathon
for inclusion of 800, it's better to do a line of fit for 400/800 which yields closest to 3'31.5/26'35, but i only do these to 0.1s increments as i'll be here forever otherwise, if i go to 0.05 or 0.01
after some trial'n'error, the nearest lines of fit for 0.1s level for 400/800 to 3'31.5/26'35 are :
51.2 / 1'47.9 ->
3'31.7
4'48.0
7'24.0
12'45.3
26'39.3
to
51.2 / 1'47.8 ->
3'31.4
4'47.4
7'22.9
12'43.0
26'33.5
a measely 0.1s difference at 800 makes huge difference at longer distances - nearly 6s over 10k !!!
i've not bothered with 1/2M as they aren't relevant as he trains for upto 10k race not longer ( & they don't run 1/2M on a track )
related question: What men's track WR performance since, say, 1990 comes closest in your eyes to having been a perfect race for the record setter?
difficult question
komen's 12'39wr had 4 very even km & a slowish middle km & he had "even" finish of 60+
however, even that 5k was rubbish for him as he was at career peak in '98i
http://tinyurl.com/k86fmojhe was in maybe 7'17/7'18 & 12'32/12'33 shape in those budapest/stuttgart races, but unfortunately, not on youtube ( & i missed them on satellite as i didn't usually bother with watching indoors back then )
no offence but iaaf tables are nonsense
they bend over backwards to try & make each event as near as possible to same strength for wrs/top few times in each event
only a fool woud try to believe top-5 at 10k is same as top-5 at 800 or 1500, but that is iaaf table's goal - even moreso for women
if you are interested, i have done some mathematical tables for events which will never change
( i'm biased, but i believe this is end of road as far as tables can evolve )
unlike iaaf tables which get updated every ~ 5y
https://2008olympictrialsakatommyleonard.shutterfly.com/filecabinet
go to "Ventolin worksheet"
go see what "maths" says 26'44 or 26'30 shoud actually = for 3k/5k...
ventolin^3 wrote:
dkny64 wrote:What do you get for Rupp for 3000m and 5000m if you use somewhat more conservative estimates for 1500m and 10000m? Say, 3:31.5 and 26:35?3'31.5 / 26'35 ->
4'47.7
7'23.3
12'43.7
In fact, I'd be curious to see your line(s) of fit for those two values all the way from 400m to 1/2 marathon
for inclusion of 800, it's better to do a line of fit for 400/800 which yields closest to 3'31.5/26'35, but i only do these to 0.1s increments as i'll be here forever otherwise, if i go to 0.05 or 0.01
after some trial'n'error, the nearest lines of fit for 0.1s level for 400/800 to 3'31.5/26'35 are :
51.2 / 1'47.9 ->
3'31.7
4'48.0
7'24.0
12'45.3
26'39.3
to
51.2 / 1'47.8 ->
3'31.4
4'47.4
7'22.9
12'43.0
26'33.5
a measely 0.1s difference at 800 makes huge difference at longer distances - nearly 6s over 10k !!!
i've not bothered with 1/2M as they aren't relevant as he trains for upto 10k race not longer ( & they don't run 1/2M on a track )
related question: What men's track WR performance since, say, 1990 comes closest in your eyes to having been a perfect race for the record setter?
difficult question
komen's 12'39wr had 4 very even km & a slowish middle km & he had "even" finish of 60+
however, even that 5k was rubbish for him as he was at career peak in '98i
http://tinyurl.com/k86fmojhe was in maybe 7'17/7'18 & 12'32/12'33 shape in those budapest/stuttgart races, but unfortunately, not on youtube ( & i missed them on satellite as i didn't usually bother with watching indoors back then )
Really interesting stuff - thanks again. Was asking about 1/2 marathon because my hunch from watching Rupp's 10k is that he might currently be in 59 flat or better half marathon shape, but I don't really have anything on which to anchor that hunch [other than how easy he made that first 13:25 5k look.] Will be interesting to see how quickly/successfully Salazar can turn Rupp from 10k strength to 1500m/3k/5k sharpness.
ventolin^3 wrote:
50.2 / 1'46.2 ->
3'29.0
4'44.7
7'19.8
12'39.6
26'31.7
an experienced eye tends me in direction of last set of estimates
if he gets an ~ perfect race this year, Rupp has a serious shot at 7'20 & 12'40
people stop this timid thinking !
Oh god almighty. 7:19 ??? 12:39?? See, this is why no one (or at least no one should, shame on you who are feeding the troll/crazy person) takes you seriously.
He is not breaking Komen's unbreakable record (and running SIX secs faster than Geb and Kenny did at the distance, and 4 secs faster than El G), and he is not matching Geb and Komen at 5k no matter how "perfect" the race is. It will never happen in a million years, and you know it.
And the fact that put him at that level for those races, but then put him way off the 10k record shows how little you know. Despite all the speed Rupp has shown at times, his BEST EVENT is the 10k. There is no doubt about this. Always has been, always will be. If he was so capable and so talented at 3k at you suggest, he would not have been blown out in so many championship/tactical 5k's. He usually gets smoked in those races over the last few laps. That wouldn't happen to a 7:19 potential 3k guy with a great kick.
An "experienced eye" ! lol. How about: "an insane brain" ?
dkny64 wrote:Really interesting stuff - thanks again. Was asking about 1/2 marathon because my hunch from watching Rupp's 10k is that he might currently be in 59 flat or better half marathon shape, but I don't really have anything on which to anchor that hunch [other than how easy he made that first 13:25 5k look.] Will be interesting to see how quickly/successfully Salazar can turn Rupp from 10k strength to 1500m/3k/5k sharpness.
the last set of estimates has 58'35 for a track 1/2 M
but i can't ever see road 1/2 M's being as quick as a perfectly flat-track in an enclosed stadium
Rupp's a 3:50 miler, but not as good as BK was in the 3K. BK was *consistently* 7:30-7:31. Point being, Rupp should be a *great* 5K'er on paper. Maybe the 3K fitness needs improving. 3K Fitness-wise only, BK's was much better- so it's attainable.
ventolin^3 wrote:
dkny64 wrote:Really interesting stuff - thanks again. Was asking about 1/2 marathon because my hunch from watching Rupp's 10k is that he might currently be in 59 flat or better half marathon shape, but I don't really have anything on which to anchor that hunch [other than how easy he made that first 13:25 5k look.] Will be interesting to see how quickly/successfully Salazar can turn Rupp from 10k strength to 1500m/3k/5k sharpness.the last set of estimates has 58'35 for a track 1/2 M
but i can't ever see road 1/2 M's being as quick as a perfectly flat-track in an enclosed stadium
Got it - so instead of mucking around with short races, Rupp should pay the right pacers and take down Geb's 1 hour record! [+ pick off the 20000m en route] I seriously think he could do that, and when else is Rupp going to have a shot at breaking a couple of Geb WRs?
Tyrannosaurus Rexing wrote:Oh god almighty. 7:19 ??? 12:39??
yes
your peabrain not see later link which said komen of '98i was in "shape of his life" & wouda demolished those times
it's logical to assume guys can go coupla secs slower than that shape over 3k & 1/2 dozen secs at 5k
See, this is why no one (or at least no one should, shame on you who are feeding the troll/crazy person) takes you seriously
only small minded fools woud actually watch track thru blinkers
you got some serious blinkers
He is not breaking Komen's unbreakable record
komen shouda gone 7'18+ that day if fully rested & no stoopid 57+ opener
breaking komen's wr & being "better" than komen are totally different questions
(and running SIX secs faster than Geb and Kenny did at the distance, and 4 secs faster than El G)
again clueless
you clearly never saw the rubbish pacing geb & hicham got for their 3ks & hicham was running 3k of 1500 training
as for kennster, get a clue idiot :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_gNfJHDg0ga 7'26 on a freezing, raining, miserable day off a pathetic 5'02+
what does your peabrain think he couda gone on a warm, dry day with wabbit dragging him thru in 4'53/4'54 ???
and he is not matching Geb and Komen at 5k no matter how "perfect" the race is
nonsense
the paris-'12 race had geb guy running 12'46 with a 54+ running both bends mostly in lane 2 !!!
it also had rubbish 4k - 4600m
at even pace from gun, geb2 shouda been looking for 12'40 at worst with the 5 guys behind best part of 5s faster, meaning that shouda had top-6 at :
12'40 - 12'45
Rupp wouda been right at top-end of the 6 in his current/'12 london 10k shape
It will never happen in a million years, and you know it
rubbish
if he can get that sambu guy to smoothly pace him to 4'54/4'55 in a 3k or 7'37 in a 5k in low-key races where he has no distracting mo/africans to mess up latter parts, Rupp can threaten 7'20/12'40
And the fact that put him at that level for those races, but then put him way off the 10k record shows how little you know
drivel
completely clueless
10k has little/no effect on a 3k & little more for 5k
hicham had never run a serious 5k when he ran 7'23 & geb2 had never run a 10k when he ran 12'46 with 54+ with lane 2 bends
fool
you only look at 10k for shorter distance estimation if you have a 10k worth bothering with
even then, 10k is not too much of a parameter as huge changes in 10k have small effect on 3k & only slightly more for 5k
Despite all the speed Rupp has shown at times, his BEST EVENT is the 10k
nonsense
it shoud be 3k/5k, just like mo
There is no doubt about this
nonsense
just like mo, if he ran fast 1500, he woud be a top guy
however, 50+ speed is not comparable to 47/48+ of top 1500 guys in last lap of tactical 1500s
Always has been, always will be
drivel
his early years were aimed at 5k
If he was so capable and so talented at 3k at you suggest, he would not have been blown out in so many championship/tactical 5k's
cluless
poor viewing/knowledge
he's normally run those 5ks after a 10k & doesn't seem to have recovered well
also, guys who he's spinted against on last lap have damn good speed
the 2 young gebs at their paris peak had 400 speed likely good/better than mo - certainly the 12'46 kid couda gone 3'28 in that shape
He usually gets smoked in those races over the last few laps
his 13'01i showed a sliver of what he can do when in an undistracted race
That wouldn't happen to a 7:19 potential 3k guy with a great kick
you really don't have a clue what paris-'12 5k told us about 3k/5k ability of top guys in a perfect race ???
An "experienced eye" ! lol. How about: "an insane brain" ?
moron
stick to looking at all-time lists
you offer nothing
ventolin^3 wrote:
51.1 / 1'47.6 ->
3'31.0
4'46.9
7'22.2
12'41.8
26'31.0
or
50.7 / 1'47.0 ->
3'30.2
4'46.1
7'21.3
12'41.3
26'32.6
or
50.2 / 1'46.2 ->
3'29.0
4'44.7
7'19.8
12'39.6
26'31.7
Just No. Rupp is very very good and will continue to impress. He may even win some world championship or olympic golds with the combo of his ability to maintain fast pace and also to kick harder than most. But he isn't Bekele, he isn't Geb, and he isn't Komen. Rupp's top end will likely be somewhere along the same lines as Sileshi Sihine (Although lets hope that doesn't make him Mr. Silver 2.0). ~12:47 for 5k. I'd even be willing to say he could run faster than Sihine's 10k PR (26:39.69).
You're "math" results assume a tremendous amount of improvement over Rupp's current bests. If Rupp was a college age runner just starting out on the professional circuit then maybe that degree of improvement would be conceivable. Rupp is 28 and likely coming to the peak of his running ability right now.
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