rojo wrote:
This is an interesting thread but looks like a lot of it was proven to be incorrect as Kenya got at least two 3:32s solo.
OP, your theory sounds good on paper but doesn't work. It's hard to say, "don't let a gap open up." How does a 3:34 guy not let a gap open up when he's racing a 3:27 guy.
If Kenya didn't want to blow it open early, and I think it would have been risky to run Kiprop first, I'd tell him, "Run with the pack and then blow their doors off over the final 600."
Even if it's slow, no one could hang with him or Kiplagat.
A lot of it was proven to be incorrect? I guess. I mean, two of the Kenyans ran about 1.5 seconds faster than I thought they would.
The part where I mentioned you can save about 1.25 seconds per lap was about right, as the 3:27.72 guy runs...3:32.3, which is 3:27.72 + 1.22 per lap? Sorry I was off by about .03 hundreths of a seconds per lap, my bad. (assuming he really did split 3:32.3) It looks like Kiplagat ran his PR of 3:29.27 + .93 seconds per lap. Off by about .32 seconds per lap. That dude is really fit right now, very impressive run.
Kenya had two guys run 3:38.x (on average) and a 3:32.3 and 3:32.7. Of course it will be impossible for a 3:34 guy to stay with a 3:27 guy, but the hope is that the 3:27 guy is a little off and is a 3:30 guy instead (in a pack) that day and the 3:34 guy is on great form and is a 3:33 guy (in a pack) that day. Suddenly, an upset is possible.
Obviously it didn't happen because two of the Kenyans were on great form and that made up for the two that were just average. You have to have a plan to win and staying on them as long as possible was the only option. Torrence ran great; he stayed on until he blew up.
I think there may have been some misinterpretation all along, like people thought I was saying the US was a favorite to win if they ran tactically astute. All I was saying was that if the US ran properly, they HAD A CHANCE, albeit a very slim one...meaning...Kenya wasn't a lock for gold. That's all.
Manzano didn't really show up to run from the looks of it anyway. Maybe you guys should change your password back to his name.