down goes liliya shobukhova

Some interesting posts here among the troll posts. I would stress looking at the data above all else (the he said, she said). We are looking for a marked increase in performance. Look at the two athletes on the front page just declared null and void.

Ivan Tsikhan - marked improvement from 2003 onwards (5m+) in the Hammer, aged 26, from already an elite level (79m - his peak at age 24). Likely doped from 2003 onwards, only scaling back in 2006, when nothing major was on to aim for.

Nadzheya Ostapchuk - Applying the same information (Belarus dictatorship, 2003) here shows Ostapchuk gained 1m in the 2003 off-season, breaking 20m in 2003 and 21m in 2005. Only in 2009 did she not break 20m (an off year? Surprising given how many records were set in 2009.. context needed here), although the most major outlier is 21.5m in the 2012 OG (probably an attempt to beat Adams, but it looked totally ridiculous). That's obvious, but the rest is probably from a bit less usage than Tsikhan, however it's fair to say that she gained at least 1m and likely 1.5m from doping. Also, she doesn't pass the 'look test' (although this test is dubious at best).

Lilya Shobukhova - Same as Tsikhan, improves at age 26 (2003) to get a new higher peak, then went totally gung-ho from 2008 (14:23 5000m) onwards as she aimed at Beijing/emerging Marathon money. I'm pleased that the blood passport has worked and her hardest doping period at least has been wiped out, and she probably won't return aged 37 (then I remember that Russian running super-elite times vs. Kelly Holmes on the wrong side of 40..).

This couldn't be applied in the first example above. Valerie Adams' achievements really stand out when we take this into account - she's been the best in the world now for at least 10 years in the Shot Put, ultra consistent and eventually peaking above 21m. A clean WR holder?

For Paula, you should use her 2:17 record, if the 2:15 was drafted behind Wejo (I should re-watch the footage! I likely saw it as a kid). How does that stack up with her track performances? Her consistency (over 15+ years) marks her out as clean, along with being a 'total slow-twitch machine'. She'd have so many track medals if she could produce any kick (or not be beaten by dopers to medals and WRs on the track, not including the East Africans here).

Also, why is there such a spate of doping from 2003 onwards? I thought that was a clean year, what with Collins winning the 100m... or was the focus on Sprinting meaning that the Endurance cheats took on some new technology?

radcliffe, rupp, centro and sleazy all need to be water boarded, bamboo shoots in their fingernails, limbs broken, then burnt alive. this doping is out of control

Also it's fair to say that athletes like Centrowitz and Adams are the future, as they have 'heterozygous advantage' like myself. Although, peak performances in sprints and endurance come from where they have been selected for longest (West or East Africa). But some of the other events may be up for grabs.

Imagine how long Adams' win streak would be if she didn't have to face Ostapchuk?! Barring 2cm, she would now have every WC/OG Gold since 2005... and probably should have medalled in 2004.. Amazing.

wejo wrote:

A few things.

1) I had heard the Shobukhova had tested positive and her pregnancy was a convenient excuse not to compete for a few years. I just searched all my emails and can't find who told me that. If you knew of this previously please email me

wejo@letsrun.com

2) Clearly the word or suspicion was out. Paula's tweet "Lilya Shobukhova finally exposed as a drug cheat . Disqualified using blood passport ,results since 2009 annulled." even indicates people knew before today's announcement.

3) How/why did this take so long to be announced?

4) Paula's tweet also supports my belief that Paula is clean. Having paced her to her world record obviously I am biased but Paula sure talks like a clean person.

Perhaps to put things in perspective, would you table a list of women that ran sub 2:20 in the Bio Passport era (so no pre 2010 times) and only those from countries where there were adequate Bio Passport monitoring procedures in place in the 12 months prior to running that time.

I'm not saying the women that ran before 2010 were all dirty or that women from countries with inadequate anti-doping monitoring programs are all dirty, but I'm just wondering who would be left on that list.

wejo wrote:2) Clearly the word or suspicion was out. Paula's tweet "Lilya Shobukhova finally exposed as a drug cheat . Disqualified using blood passport ,results since 2009 annulled." even indicates people knew before today's announcement

I very much doubt anyone "told" Paula anything beforehand

Certainly not the ruskies nor WADA ( all tests are supposed to be confidential & Paula is not a member of WADA )

She is is likely just releasing the bottled up hate she had for Shoby ever since she smashed Paula's non-african 5k wr of 14'28 down to 14'23 in '08

Paula was waiting nearly 6y for this day to come ( if it ever would ) & just expressing her delight

Personally, the day shoby ran 14'23 indicated huge level of suspicion, but i never thought she'd ever be caught - 6y scot-free was good going on her part

I assume that she won't be allowed to compete ever again until/unless she pays back her winnings. Otherwise, what does it mean to impose a penalty that includes repayment of winnings?

webby wrote:

unless she pays back her winnings

Not happening. I am sure she had to pay (income) taxes on those, so she went home with ~65% (not sure which tax bracket she falls into and in which country). On top of that, she would have to pay interest on the prize money so likely that's double of what she went home with.

Not happening.

I'm sure you're right. So the only question is whether she'll still be allowed to compete.

For sure it's not happening. WMM has talked about requiring the athlete to pay $ back, but it's empty talk. What legal mechanism do they have to recover it? Unless there are wider sanctions put in place in the future - say, a 2 or 4 year ban of the manager/management group, and/ or a hefty fine to the athlete's federation, the incentives to dope and retire if caught will remain high. Managers or federations with high numbers of positives (Turkey, Russia, Morocco for instance) should face sanction and be made to pay for more stringent out of comp testing by WADA or similar. Spread the responsibility. As it stands now, only the athlete is punished. Why aren't managers sanctioned?

Nutella1 wrote:

webby wrote:

unless she pays back her winnings

Not happening. I am sure she had to pay (income) taxes on those, so she went home with ~65% (not sure which tax bracket she falls into and in which country). On top of that, she would have to pay interest on the prize money so likely that's double of what she went home with.

Not happening.

Chet Manly wrote:

You think that Radcliffe doped and Bekele was clean? Yikes.

Well as I explained before (if people read and try not to put words into others mouths these days) that everyone is entitled to believe whatever they want when it comes to "clean" WRs. But I'll bite and go into more detail of why I believe BK was clean and Paula not.

First, if we are even comparing a 5k/10k WR holder to a marathon WR holder. Look at how many white British men have come close to 12:37? I think only Mo Farah has broke 13 and for the purpose of including running genetics into this talk he's not of caucasian anglo-saxon ethnicity. So to see the two ethiopian greats KB and Geb hold the world record both under 12:40/26:25 does not surprise me as much as if I saw a white British male run sub 12:37/26:17 right now. If someone did I would highly expect them to be on some type of aid to accomplish the performance. My other option would be to assume that they are a freak of nature, randomly faster than the rest of their genetic cohort. People must understand that genetics define athletic performances across the board when it comes to sport.

I think that Paula should stay a little more reserved about others testing positive regardless of if she is clean or not. When more and more people test positive that have run slower than her time it starts looking a lot worse for Paula. How come another British female hasn't run sub 2:18 by now? Shouldn't we expect it?

The best thing that can happen to validate Paula's WR in my opinion would be for another caucasian anglo-saxon female to break her WR. If that happens then I would start to accept the possibility that she was clean. Again I don't think it will happen. Maybe an Ethiopian or Kenyan in the next ten years.

Again, everything is just opinion and the beauty of it is that we can all believe what we want.

it stretches my credulity to believe jos hermens has never given geb and bekele a little bit of dope

following on from my first statement

I would further deduce that if they had a little dope then they had a lot

and are therefore likely career dopers

just a theory..

just sayin wrote:

it stretches my credulity to believe jos hermens has never given geb and bekele a little bit of dope

following on from my first statement

I would further deduce that if they had a little dope then they had a lot

and are therefore likely career dopers

just a theory..

here's my theory: you have already made up your mind on everything.

How much fun can it be to just make cryptic little posts saying everyone dopes? Serious question.

yukke wrote:

here's my theory: you have already made up your mind on everything.

i suspect everything

based on first hand experience

however I haven't made up my mind on everything

Wejo deleting posts and shilling Paula all up in here.

How predictable.

It's going to be hilarious when Radcliffe and Bolt are eventually exposed as cheats. Brojos gonna have some mad huevos on their faces.

I agree with Ventolin on the built up frustration. She probably suspected it herself for a long time.

What's the closest that any other 'Caucasian' has gotten to Paula's times? In all events.. I remember a Portuguese Marathon runner Ribeiro, and Jo Pavey is the closest Brit to her.. she was also the first non-African home in the 2008 (5k, 10k), with Bleasdale behind her and Huddle just behind them in 5k, and Japan, USA, Europe behind in 10k. She's broken 14:40 and 30:55 and has been competing with Radcliffe all her life (same age), sometimes beating her in her youth, and also probably being first non-African home in the 2004 5k (beating Ejigu, Abeye and Masai). She's also ran 4 Olympics, showing similar consistency for little reward.

*2012 in my last post. But I agree on the genetics - look at the Dibabas/Tulu/Ejigu all being cousins for example. That area of East Africa has some adaptations to altitude running, like West Africa generally has the highest diversity for sprinting (from length of time inhabited). But that doesn't mean it's impossible for other outliers to compete - Paula trained at altitude a lot to 'nullify' that advantage, and we've seen Kilty win the 60m indoors.

wr potential wrote:

I agree with Ventolin on the built up frustration. She probably suspected it herself for a long time.

What's the closest that any other 'Caucasian' has gotten to Paula's times? In all events.. I remember a Portuguese Marathon runner Ribeiro, and Jo Pavey is the closest Brit to her.. she was also the first non-African home in the 2008 (5k, 10k), with Bleasdale behind her and Huddle just behind them in 5k, and Japan, USA, Europe behind in 10k. She's broken 14:40 and 30:55 and has been competing with Radcliffe all her life (same age), sometimes beating her in her youth, and also probably being first non-African home in the 2004 5k (beating Ejigu, Abeye and Masai). She's also ran 4 Olympics, showing similar consistency for little reward.

So let me get this straight, you are saying that Paula suspected her of doping because she has run times that are close to Paula's WR???

That is probably true, but what does that say about Paula and her doping?

anybody able to compile a list of what these ladies have won?

I suspect it's pretty substantial

shobukhova

Abitova,

Denisova,

Golovkina,

Syreva

etc.

Look at the evidence.. sudden improvements in mid and late 20s. Just Sayin has just named all the Russian athletes.. we could probably find the same evidence for them too.