Only Ritz has run faster since after the 2012 trials. Only Hall, Meb, Ritz, Abdi and Gotcher have run faster times since the 2008 trials. Clearly, Vail is very much a favorite given how few others have been able to get down to 2:10. While London is a fast course, Vail did a lot of work by himself. With some people to run with, Vail should be able to go sub 2:10. Ritz, Hall, Meb and Abdi are all big question marks. Other than Rupp, no one moving up to the marathon has shown much promise recently. Vail will get invites to NY and Boston for good cash next year and will be a well seasoned marathoner by 2016.