sheezus wrote:
Vail is on the up and up. all other top US marathoners are on the downward trend.
^this is the reason he is looking like a favorite for the 2016 olympic marathon team. The time is pretty good, but his slow, steady improvement and consistency are way more impressive to me, given how the rest of the top Americans have performed in the last few years.
Brian Sell was Brian Sell because he was a complete nobody in college and his track times wouldn't even qualify him for USA champs (his 10k PR is 28:36, the standard this year is 28:30). Ryan Veil was a stand out runner at a powerhouse NCAA program and has far superior track times to Sell.
There is nobody in USA running right now that I would compare to Sell.
So we can say they are similar because at this moment, their best marathons are very similar and their training volume to achieve that time is also very similar. However, their roads to that point are very different, as might be their ending points.
One of the Hanson brothers said that if Sell ran a 150 mile
week, he could run 100 of them at sub 6.
I don't see that in Vails training. I see 200's and 4:50
pace in small doses.
And Canova said if he trained right, he could run 2:07 (not
2:10:57 )
I have followed Vail for a year on Twitter and read his blog. He is a ridiculously impressive trainer, with amazing focus. But quite frankly I am not at all impressed with a high-2:10. I would have thought he (for sure) has low-2:09 in him. His track credentials and training certainly suggest this....the one thing I seriously question is his ability to peak and taper. He did 122 miles last week (a travel week). If the dude would back off way more his last 3 weeks, I seriously think he would pop a fast one. He just seems too high-strung to do this. He needs to trust his training way more and just relax the weeks going into the race.
fred wrote:
And Canova said if he trained right, he could run 2:07 (not
2:10:57 )
This. Mediocre coaching translates into mediocre results.
Looking at his log it's like looking at a 10 weeks to your best marathon feature on RW. Just simple stuff, miles + "stuff". Also terrible taper routine with just the wrong workouts.
I also find it interesting that he trains at sea level. Seems unusual for a marathoner.
And you can say all you want, but he has used his conservative approach to run 4 good marathons (not amazing), basically improving each time (given the course difficulties) and not suffering a major injury that has caused him to DNS.
That shouldn't be ignored.
Okay, when Renato says he could run under 2:07, he meant by 2016, if he focused on it full-time, everything went well, etc, not that he should be running it now.
I don't think he will be that happy with the race. The best part was he beat all the other non-Africans. But he was not happy with his 2:13 at NYC and today he ran 2:26 faster, about what most people would gain from one course to the other. Maybe it was just a slow day all around.
albuterol^3 wrote:
And you can say all you want, but he has used his conservative approach to run 4 good marathons (not amazing), basically improving each time (given the course difficulties) and not suffering a major injury that has caused him to DNS.
It has been conservative. He even admitted the 200's are a joke. When he is at his peak he just runs 150, 150, 150, 150 exactly. That would be hard to do unless you're holding back. Whatever, as long as he's still going in the right direction there's nothing wrong with that.
How about we wait for Boston and the best American marathoner of all time to run his race before crowning Ryan Vail. I like the guy. But 2:10 is a borderline tempo for a fit Ryan Hall and there's no reason to think he's anything but fit right now.
Ryan Vail whined about possibly having jury duty and acknowledged that he continuously deferred it because it would 'interfere with his training.
Brian Sell worked part time at Home Depot every week.
That right there tells me these two people are not as alike as you would think.
might be wejo wrote:
Brian Sell was Brian Sell because he was a complete nobody in college and his track times wouldn't even qualify him for USA champs (his 10k PR is 28:36, the standard this year is 28:30). Ryan Veil was a stand out runner at a powerhouse NCAA program and has far superior track times to Sell.
There is nobody in USA running right now that I would compare to Sell.
Sorry, but you are completely wrong.
Brian Sell was a Division 1 All-American who ran 28:40 10k in college.
That is not my definition of a 'nobody'.
Don't forget these athletes:
Luke Puskedra
Ed Moran
Brett Gotcher
Ricky Flynn
And why not Abdi? he always finds a way...
Nope never broke 28:50 in college.
Yea, 28:50 something and ~14:05. Know for sure he was AA at XC, maybe track too.
Again, that's not my definition of a nobody.
no respect for vail wrote:
Ryan Vail whined about possibly having jury duty and acknowledged that he continuously deferred it because it would 'interfere with his training.
Brian Sell worked part time at Home Depot every week.
That right there tells me these two people are not as alike as you would think.
Sell worked 20 hours a week at Home Depot for a few years making 40 hour per week wages. Vail works part time at a running store. You have no respect for Vail because he continuously defers jury duty because it could interfere with his training? Really?
The comparison is stupid anyways. Ryan Vail and Brian Sell are not in the same league talent wise. I predict that Vail will finish his career with a 2:08 - 2:09 marathon best.
As far as I can tell, in a loaded field of young marathoners at the top of their game, the only one to PR was Vail. Circumstantially, I suspect that their was more than just an effect of bad pacing, but substantial wind at key points (which leads to bad pacing, etc.).
I would not at all be surprised to see Vail run a 2:08-high by 2016. He seems to know his body and how to optimize it well, which is what the marathon is all about.
rojo wrote:
#ocl wrote:As a matter of fact, Meb is looking the most like a sure bet. Here would be my list, but this could change drastically after Boston, which has a large contingent of Americans lining up. And I still think there is an 80% chance that Galen Rupp debuts in LA 2016 -
THE MAN
Dathan Ritzenhein
Meb Keflezighi
Ryan Vail
THE CONTENDERS TO THE THRONE
Fernando Cabada
Nick Arciniaga
Bobby Curtis
Josphat Boit
Christo Landry
DARKHORSES
Ryan Hall
Matt Tegenkamp
I agree that Rupp could run it.
You have a 40 year old Meb making the team? That would be amazing. I guess Lagat is kicking as at 39 but you'd think Father time would win eventually.
You have Hall as a dark horse?
I would put Hall in the top category. Yes the last two years haven't been pretty but he won't be 40.
I would switch Hall and Meb on your list
Umm... Ever heard of Jason Hartmann?
!!!!!!!!!
This is what I was thinking. How some of those guys got on that list and Hartmann was left off is just silly.
Also, I wouldn't count of Craig Leon. He keeps getting better and better. I'm expecting big things Monday.
Greybeard wrote:
As far as I can tell, in a loaded field of young marathoners at the top of their game, the only one to PR was Vail. Circumstantially, I suspect that their was more than just an effect of bad pacing, but substantial wind at key points (which leads to bad pacing, etc.).
Stanley Biwott ran a 17 sec. PR.
