Bekele Marathon Debut Prediction Thread

Wins in 2:05:06.

HM at 61:55, which blows off the field soon after, then blows up himself at the 21st mile. Has enough dignity to still crawl under the course record of 2:05:11.

It'll be interesting to see if he beats Kipsang's debut time of 2:07:13, which was also run in Paris.

grox wrote:

According to VO2,

http://www.vo2.fr/actualite/marathon-marathon-de-paris-2014-04042014-8696.html

Kenenisa has asked for 2'55 per km (2:03:04 unless I made a mistake). They also say the elite recruiter (or whatever that position is called) got scared and mentioned reaching the half point in 1:02.

Kenenisa would also have lost money in his real estate undertakings and would need the money.

Well, if that motivates him to run fast... good for us!

If KB really tries to start out at 2:55/k, I don't think he'll even make it to 30k.

It does seem like he's been saying different things to different reporters, so if he just goes for the win [as he's been telling at least some reporters] and starts out running a more sensible pace like 3'/k, I see him finishing in something like 2:08 and getting the win in a somewhat slow race.

what you have to realize is that KB only said that he was racing this to gain experience. meaning most likely he runs with the pace makers/leaders till a) he cant hold on anymore or b) till he feels he can make a push and break everyone. Imma say he runs 2:06:30-2:07:30

2:02:47

The guy has been running almost 2 hours a day at 5:15 average pace.

You have to bear in mind a few things.

Paris is not as easy as London (let alone Berlin), particularly the last third of the race, while the weather might be rather warm at the end tomorrow it seems. Besides, the first km is slightly downhill, so 2:55 for the first km may be reasonable (and will NOT correspond to an average 2:03 pace).

On the other hand, KIMETTO's debut was in Berlin, in perfect conditions, and he had G.MUTAI as a "perfect rabbit" till the end, so the conditions will absolutely not be comparable.

Taking all that into account, if BEKELE manage to do better than KIMETTO's marathon debut, that would be an outstanding performance, meaning a sub 2:03 in flat course and perfect conditions soon.

Achieving better than GEBRE and WANJIRU debuts in Paris should already be considered as a success debut very encouraging for the following.

2:04.15

2:06:35

You don't use someone's 5k and 10k prs to predict their marathon time. Using a half marathon is more accurate although not always a true predictor either. Also, his 5k/10k prs were in his prime and he is not at that level anymore. His half time in the great north run was 60:09. Based on that, his predicted marathon time is 2:06:40....

Given that, I say he runs 2:07:55 in his debut.

You don't use someone's 5k and 10k prs to predict their marathon time. Using a half marathon is more accurate although not always a true predictor either. Also, his 5k/10k prs were in his prime and he is not at that level anymore. His half time in the great north run was 60:09. Based on that, his predicted marathon time is 2:06:40....

Given that, I say he runs 2:07:55 in his debut.

2:06:5x

Cicirunner wrote:

You don't use someone's 5k and 10k prs to predict their marathon time. Using a half marathon is more accurate although not always a true predictor either. Also, his 5k/10k prs were in his prime and he is not at that level anymore. His half time in the great north run was 60:09. Based on that, his predicted marathon time is 2:06:40....

Given that, I say he runs 2:07:55 in his debut.

+1. And given the field, I think that will be good enough to win.

2:07:10

2:12 or dnf. He's not a marathonther

2:07:37

dandan wrote:

2:05:04

nice

Fluid Mechanic wrote:

2:04:59 CR, setting him up nicely for a 2:02:59 WR in Berlin.

I really want to see him have another go at being the dominating force he once was. I started following the sport late in high school when he was untouchable on the track around 2005, and I fondly remember watching him lay waste to field after field. While some people like seeing the king deposed, I'm always pulling for the best of the best to one up themselves.

Lets go KB!

Honorable mention to this one...

Not honorable mention. This guy wins.

Closest without going over is pretty standard in my book.

dandan wrote:

2:05:04

Wow!

It was close!

Kudos!