2:04:52
2:04:52
2:05:32.7 by my calculations with a standard deviation due to wind and the course terrain of +/- 30 seconds.
orlynow wrote:
Being the one guy who says "DNF" on the thread while everyone else predicts sub-2:07 times doesn't make you look very smart.
What a stupid comment!
If someone wants to make an "prediction", before that he should look what the majority has predicted and than act accordingly to that?
For me it looks much more surprising that some people predict a time close to or under the WR. In his debut. For someone who so far hasn't proved to be among the best in the other road distances. Who has had some problems in the last 4 (!) years.
I think a dnf is the most likely scenario. If he finishes, I go for 2:08:30.
If he runs sub 2:05, it would be fantastic and I'm the first to congratulate him. If he breaks the WR - well, than I definitely would be shocked in some way.
Based off his half marathon debut its equal to 2:05:57. But the marathon is a different beast, he's done the mileage but I expect somewhere between a 2:06:17 to 2:07:37 depending on the weather.
Will he have pacemakers? If so, sub 2:05. If not, 2:07 or whatever it takes to win.
bladerunner wrote:
Will he have pacemakers? If so, sub 2:05. If not, 2:07 or whatever it takes to win.
Yes, of course. And they're going out at WR pace.
https://twitter.com/albertostretti/status/452142715917316097dlkndc wrote:
Wanjiru's debut was 2:06:39 on a dead flat course. Bekele is not beating that.
Hhhhmmm .. Sammy debuted at age 21 .. it's reasonable to suggest that's probably not the strongest age for a marathon.
Also, and more importantly, I think people here too often discount the value of the psychological factor … today, a LOT more people are running 2:04-2:05 than there were in 07. the bar is a lot higher (partly thanks to Sammy) .. which means athletic performance will be higher.
I have no idea what KB will run. But I wouldn't assert that Bekele can't run under 2:06:39.
I hope the pacers who have to go through halfway at 1:01:31 are well paid. Given Bekele's half marathon time, that seems very ambitious.
Goucher Needles wrote:
I hope the pacers who have to go through halfway at 1:01:31 are well paid. Given Bekele's half marathon time, that seems very ambitious.
Was that his debut half marathon? Because it looked to me like he was d|cking around, especially with Farah, smiling, running for the win in the rain. That it was a race and not a time trial played to his favor. Who knows what sort of shape he was in at the time; why speculate.
Not saying you're wrong because WR pace is indeed ambitious, but I don't see Kenny being a hype man or showing up unprepared.
His 60:10 last fall was jogging after a long season.
Optimally prepared he can go 58 flat and 2:01.
He will go 2:03-2:04 tomorrow depending on weather and
pacers.
dlkndc wrote:
Wanjiru's debut was 2:06:39 on a dead flat course. Bekele is not beating that.
Fukuoka has a few nasty steep little bridges and an uphill to the finish on the track. Wanjiru was also directed not to run any faster that 3:00 pace in his debut, and he ran almost to the second that pace.
2:05:04
A hint: his last long run three weeks ago was a 45k in 2:25, in altitude in Ethiopia...
BBen wrote:
A hint: his last long run three weeks ago was a 45k in 2:25, in altitude in Ethiopia...
I hope this is true. It'd be sweet to see Bekele bust a 2:04 in his debut.
Omar lugs Cardinal wrote:
DNF
This
dlkndc wrote:
Wanjiru's debut was 2:06:39 on a dead flat course. Bekele is not beating that.
I love this thread. I'm trying to get up a poll on the front page but it probably won't happen until after 5 pm as our programmer is coaching HS all day.
I myself was wondering, "What do people think is successful?"
I was going to frame the poll options as follows:
Over 2:08:15
Faster Than Tergat's Debut 2:08:15 (2:08:14-2:06:35)
Faster Than Haile's Debut 2:06:35 (2:05:12-2:06:34)
Faster Than The Course Record of 2:05:12 (2:05:11-2:04:16)
Faster Than The Fastest Debut Ever (Sub 2:04:15)
One interesting thing to note. Both Haile and Wanjiru's debuts were very similar - 2:06:35 and 2:06:39. So 2:06:35 should be the over/under if there is betting.
Using VDOT to calculate his performance based on both his 12:37 5k and his 26:17 10k, K. Bekele's equivalent marathon is 2:01:10. That said, he's not run a top 100 half marathon and he faces a medium fast course on which the record is 2:05:11. As such, what's your prediction for his debut?I'm going 2:05:37. Updated from Rojo:
I love this thread. I'm trying to get up a poll on the front page but it probably won't happen until after 5 pm as our programmer is coaching HS all day.
I myself was wondering, "What do people think is successful?"
I was going to frame the poll options as follows:
Over 2:08:15 Faster Than Tergat's Debut 2:08:15 (2:08:14-2:06:35) Faster Than Haile's Debut 2:06:35 (2:05:12-2:06:34) Faster Than The Course Record of 2:05:12 (2:05:11-2:04:16) Faster Than The Fastest Debut Ever (Sub 2:04:15)
One interesting thing to note. Both Haile and Wanjiru's debuts were very similar - 2:06:35 and 2:06:39. So 2:06:35 should be the over/under if there is betting.
Arabian Horse wrote:
bladerunner wrote:Will he have pacemakers? If so, sub 2:05. If not, 2:07 or whatever it takes to win.
Yes, of course. And they're going out at WR pace.
https://twitter.com/albertostretti/status/452142715917316097
Holy shit. Wow. I didn't expect that sort of pace. I'm nervous for how Bekele holds up. Imagine him running under 2:04. This place will blow up
with a high change of DNF (got Kenny got guts) a 2.04 high or 2.05 high.
The WR will have to wait till the 2nd or 3rd attempt.
WR in his debut - 2:03:23
If he can follow pacemakers at 2:03:20 pace until 20 miles and then has to run the last 10K alone he can do it. It would be really awesome to see him back on top.