I'm going 2:05:37.
Updated from Rojo:
I love this thread. I'm trying to get up a poll on the front page but it probably won't happen until after 5 pm as our programmer is coaching HS all day.
I myself was wondering, "What do people think is successful?"
I was going to frame the poll options as follows:
Faster Than Tergat's Debut 2:08:15 (2:08:14-2:06:35)
Faster Than Haile's Debut 2:06:35 (2:05:12-2:06:34)
Faster Than The Course Record of 2:05:12 (2:05:11-2:04:16)
Faster Than The Fastest Debut Ever (Sub 2:04:15)
One interesting thing to note. Both Haile and Wanjiru's debuts were very similar - 2:06:35 and 2:06:39. So 2:06:35 should be the over/under if there is betting.