I finally understood what Rupp is lacking

A Suck wrote:

What Rupp intended was unclear.

Rupp obviously intended to hang on to Lagat's shoulder and kick with him. Not a bad idea, but when Lagat runs in lane 2 it's a terrible strategy. And Rupp doesn't have the brains or balls to figure out a plan B on his own.

rupp's training partner ran 3:28.8 and as rupp is always a few steps slower, you'd think he'd have a shot at 3:30 himself. he's run 3:50.9i and this year Salazar, who always gets the time guesses on his athletes close, thought he could run 3:48i. So, he's got the speed to challenge even Ndiku (3:29) and he ran 7:30i last year and has run 26:48. So, here they jogged through mile more than 10 seconds slower than Rupp was doing his first four post-2M AR mile repeats. Now all he had to do was hammer the last 1400m or some fraction of that, maybe 500m for a medal. The last 1400m was done in around 3:26, or likely around 3:40-1 1500m pace. Rupp does not believe enough in himself to go for the win by grabbing the lead. And indoors, forget about it if you are not right there with 200m to go.

A Suck wrote:

themanontherun wrote:

He flipped the switch, learned how to race, and continued to improve his fitness. He went from perenial favorite turned bridesmaid to unstoppable champion.

Unstoppable champion? When did that happen, exactly?

You're joking, right?

You realize that Rupp has NEVER won a SINGLE major international race, right?

I was referring to his ability to dominate at the collegiate level. I apologize if that was unclear. If I was clear and you dispute his senior collegiate season as being unstoppable, I welcome your arguments.

Your point about him never winning major races is exactly what I'm talking about; he never won in college either... until he started winning all the time. I'm not suggesting Rupp will be internationally what he was collegiately; in fact I rather doubt it. My point, rather, was that he has shown this pattern of performance before.

A trigger that releases adrenaline is something that exists in people to varying degrees. Frankly, extreme adrenaline release is not a pleasant experience, nor is the tendency to easily trigger it desireable. The trigger depends on the social perspective of the individual. A truly self-confident person will have no need for it, except to protect a vulnerable person.

Rupp did this race as part of his long term, multi-year prep for 10K championship racing. Rupp is an incredibly strong time-trialist from the mile on up at least through 10K (and probably up to 15K right now) and he is slowly getting better at tactical racing. 4th is a great result here and it is not a definitive result of anything such as "what he is lacking."

In a world . . . wrote:

Rupp did this race as part of his long term, multi-year prep for 10K championship racing....

Rupp is nearing 28-years of age. Rupp is on the downswing. There is no more long term plan. It needs to be a now, and the next year or two, plan.

long term plan? wrote:

Rupp is nearing 28-years of age. Rupp is on the downswing. There is no more long term plan. It needs to be a now, and the next year or two, plan.

Actually the Olympics are in 2.5 years.

A F*** wrote:

A Suck wrote:

What Rupp intended was unclear.

Rupp obviously intended to hang on to Lagat's shoulder and kick with him. Not a bad idea, but when Lagat runs in lane 2 it's a terrible strategy. And Rupp doesn't have the brains or balls to figure out a plan B on his own.

The hanging off of Lagat's shorts was clear.

What was unclear was Rupp's goal for the race. Everyone else in there was in it to win it, and it showed. With Rupp, it never really looks like that. Even in his silver. No initiative.

Rupp needs to be thinking of a different plan. Sit and kick was okay for 2012, it will not work in 2016.

themanontherun wrote:

A Suck wrote:

Unstoppable champion? When did that happen, exactly?

You're joking, right?

You realize that Rupp has NEVER won a SINGLE major international race, right?

I was referring to his ability to dominate at the collegiate level. I apologize if that was unclear. If I was clear and you dispute his senior collegiate season as being unstoppable, I welcome your arguments.

You should have stated that context, since the level of competition is so many steps below the level actually being discussed in this thread. I don't dispute that Rupp became unstoppable within the NCAA.

But outside of the sprints in a good year and occasionally some field events, the NCAA is not exactly where to look for this year's contenders at the world elite stage.

To guys on the level of Ndiku, Kiprop or Farah for that matter, hearing that someone was an "unstoppable champion" in the NCAA is like an NFL player hearing that someone was an unstoppable champion in high school. They are not exactly tracking the results.

I am the Walrus wrote:

watching the world indoor final live on BBC. It is clear to me now that Rupp is lacking race instinct. With 800m to go he was caught following Lagat out on lane 3, probably because Salazar instructed him to stay on his shoulder. He then realizes his mistakes and wastes too much energy sprinting into 3rd/4th with 400m to go. He then holds on to a strong 4th finish, but out of reach for a medal.

Rupp has the same capabilities then Lagat in time trial races, so I think he is just as strong training wise as Geb, Lagat et al. But they race smarter. In particular Lagat simply possesses the better racing skills, compensating for his age. It's the one variable Salazar cannot control for.

Rupp doesn't have the ability to change gears as quickly as a guy like Lagat. Rupp can wind it up and kick really well. He can also run a good time trial race where he gets in a rhythm and just holds onto the pace. But in a shorter championship race, someone like Lagat can put a half a meter or two on him in the blink of an eye and then it is game over. Rupp can run a great 1500, mile, 3000, or 5000, but he will have difficulty in a championship race at these distances. I think him finishing 4th is a wonderful result and a credit to how hard he trains. He is just not the best 3000 meter runner in the world. But he ran a great race today.

oldmanriver1 wrote:

I think him finishing 4th is a wonderful result and a credit to how hard he trains.

Glad you're happy with it.

That is the refrain to his career.

After reading the posts on Gallen I felt i had to add this observation.

How many countries and athletes were sent to the Worlds? How many made it to the final? Was Gallen in his best event? Did he get 4th in the world? If the race went out faster do I think he would have medalled?

He had dedicated many years to our sport...

I really think that us Americans want a hero is the distance events that most of the posts are just our frustrations pouring out..I could be wrong but i don"t think so.

webfoot wrote:

Les wrote:Yes, Rupp has superior talent and training

No, in this field Rupp's talent is in the lower half. Rupp is an overachiever.

Rupp's success is a result of the long term relationship and training with his coach. Don't get me wrong, Rupp is very talented, but Schumacher's group has 3 runners with as much or more talent than Rupp.

Salazar found Rupp by chance on a soccer field at a small Catholic HS in Portland, Oregon. Salazar did not screen thousands of HS kids looking for the next great American Ryunesque-level talent.

I'm fine with that. You can say Rupp's talent is bad, medium, ryunesque, whatever.

Rupp has proven he has the ability to be be a medal winner. No, I don't mean London. I'm referring to the trials of 2012, where he ran 52.5 for the last 400. I doubt you can find me a race where a 52.5 last lap hasn't medaled, and frequently it outright wins.

Perhaps that was the performance of a career, but nonetheless it shows that Rupp CAN contend and win medals. He may not have the ability to run 52s last lap on command, or he may just not have learned how to do so consistently.

I guess the reason I would rate Rupp's talent on par with the other guys is that he is capable of doing the same things they are. Rupp at 100% is not worse than Gebremeskel, Gebrhiwet, Ndiku at 100%, and in fact Rupp beat Ndiku solidly last year in a faster race.

If you consider consistency as an aspect of talent then no, Rupp's talent is not on the level of the other major contenders.

i'm not seeing anyone in the world that is that consistent in championships except for moe. the top 10 guys are not that far apart. it is kind of random who finishes in the medals.

look at the guys that bombed in the 1500. that guy silas is capable of 3:27, for sure, but that does not mean a thing in championships apparently. he's struggling to be there at the championships. willis? he's a veteran, got fourth, could have been in the medals. this is typical of the situation - if you are on your game, on the day and have a bit of luck, you've got a medal. if not, too bad, you second guess and say bla bla bla.

notice. that rupp just beat a 12:4x guy 5k specialist in a 3k championship. and beat all the kenyans.

what rupp is lacking his best speed on the last lap. there's room for improvement.

that's what al-sal will be focusing on now. tweaking the workouts to drop his best speed, like in his silver medal 10k.

Jeilan, bro. Jeilan. If Farah and Jeilan run in a 10K, Rupp is no better than third.

long term plan? wrote:

Rupp needs to be thinking of a different plan. Sit and kick was okay for 2012, it will not work in 2016.

Doubtful. The new Africans seemed too dumb to try a different tactic in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Why would they all of a sudden come to their senses in 2016?

LM wrote:

I guess the reason I would rate Rupp's talent on par with the other guys is that he is capable of doing the same things they are. Rupp at 100% is not worse than Gebremeskel, Gebrhiwet, Ndiku at 100%, and in fact Rupp beat Ndiku solidly last year in a faster race.

Lol are you serious? Rupp at 100% is nowhere near those other guys at 100%. There's not even anything to support your idea. Those guys are all almost 12:40 guys. Rupp hasn't even broken 12:58 in perfectly rabbited races.

And what was the overall time when Rupp finished with a 52? Anyone can run a 52 off of a slow enough pace.

iisk wrote:

LM wrote:

I guess the reason I would rate Rupp's talent on par with the other guys is that he is capable of doing the same things they are. Rupp at 100% is not worse than Gebremeskel, Gebrhiwet, Ndiku at 100%, and in fact Rupp beat Ndiku solidly last year in a faster race.

Lol are you serious? Rupp at 100% is nowhere near those other guys at 100%. There's not even anything to support your idea. Those guys are all almost 12:40 guys. Rupp hasn't even broken 12:58 in perfectly rabbited races.

And what was the overall time when Rupp finished with a 52? Anyone can run a 52 off of a slow enough pace.

I'm basing that on the fact that Gebremeskel, Gebriwhet, and Ndiku have all never run faster than 52 seconds for a final lap.

We can speculate all we want, like how I believe Rupp could run under 12:50, but until he actually does it he is a 12:58 guy. Same with Gebremeskel/Gebriwhet/Ndiku/etc.

In other words, I'd like to think I'm well based in facts. Rupp has run faster at 3k then any of the others except Gebrhiwet, who has run 7:30 as well iirc. Rupp has also run a final lap as fast as any of them.

I ought to be clear when I say Rupp at 100%, im referring to last lap of a championship race (slow pace like US trials). In a faster race, Rupp has not demonstrated a close as fast as say Gebremeskel when he closed in 55 high for 12:45.