tony the tiger wrote:
LOL its really funny how people here on LRC always underestimate Mo Farah esp before races , always talking about if athletes on the race go fast and hard MO Farah has no chance of hanging on let alone winning the race , its quite hilarious actually lmao
I've come to dislike Mo, but I believe he's the best 5000m / 100000m guy going right now and would not bet against him on the track any time he's fit.
G Mutai at his best is an extraordinary 1/2 marathon / marathon guy. Not clear of the field in his specialties the way Mo is on the track, but the competition [and money] are better in G Mutai's disciplines.
IF G Mutai is fully fit, I think he goes right around 59 flat on Sunday. And if Mo beats that, then Mo will have demonstrated that he's also an extraordinary 1/2 marathon guy + will have given an indication of big marathon potential.
I'll flesh out the above by saying that I see 3 basic scenarios with one main sub variation for each:
1) G Mutai is fully fit, breaks 59 and wins easily.
1a. G Mutai as above but Mo wins and demonstrates big 1/2 marathon ability + big marathon potential.
2) G Mutai is semi fit, slips under 60 and wins narrowly.
2a. G Mutai as above but Mo breaks 60 and wins - not a big breakthrough for Mo but a solid improvement + raises a flag for G Mutai.
2b. G Mutai as above but Mo significantly under 60 and wins big - major breakthrough for Mo [as in 1a above], raises a big flag for G Mutai.
3) G Mutai isn't fully fit, is over 60 and Mo wins.
3a. G Mutai is over 60 but Mo doesn't win - raises serious doubts about Mo's preparations for London.
I don't have any particular insider knowledge, but I'm definitely rooting for G Mutai. I like the way he runs and get the impression he genuinely loves the sport [or the activity of running or something like that.]
I dislike Mo because I've come to see him as a mercenary who REALLY likes money and fame but doesn't particularly care about the sport and either doesn't care about how he will be remembered or hasn't bothered to think it through carefully.
You can say all you want about medals being the most important thing, but I happen to think that's not true. Roger Bannister never won an Olympic medal but he's still got big name recognition among people who've never heard of any miler since. That's obviously because of a time. Yes, Jim Ryun won an Olympic medal, but he could have missed the 68 Olympics and [at least among Americans] he'd still also have greater name recognition - because of times - than pretty much any Olympic champion 1500m guy who's come along since.
But can Mo be bothered to post times? No. He hit that crazy fast 1500m time and he's got a credibly fast 10000m time to his name, but in the two events where he might just be able to take a rip at a big WR - the 3000m and the 5000m - he can't be bothered to even try.
At the rate Mo's going, he's going to be this generation's Miruts Yifter - great sprint finish guy, yes people who care know who he was, but I've never seen anyone place Yifter among the true all time greats. Compare to Daniel [7:20.xx 3000m] Komen. Never won a darn thing at the Olympics, generates split opinions about his times and how impressive they are [or aren't] + what drugs were [or weren't] involved but comes up on these message boards on a much more regular basis than Yifter. [and as it happens I really liked Yifter as a kid, so if things continue as they've been going lately, I'll end up putting Mo below Yifter on my personal list.]
Long winded way of saying no, I don't think I'm underestimating Mo Farah, I'm just not rooting for him.
Final point: I have no strong opinion on whether G Mutai or Mo Farah is doping, and Mo's association with AlSal isn't what I have against him. In fact, one of the things I respect about Mo is that he wasn't content to be a "Euro champ but can't beat the E Africans" kind of athlete and changed his life to try to get better. What I have against Mo is how he's handled himself since getting better.