Read! wrote:
How does Ukraine guarantee safety of Russians in Crimea? It seems like that was simply an excuse to invade, I haven't seen any evidence of targeted violence towards Russians. Does Russia have any other viable ports in the Black Sea? Seems odd they would rely so heavily on a leased base in a foreign country.
it's a relic of the USSR and it's breakup. in the 50s the USSR ceded sebastopol (and the whole of crimea) to Ukraine, thinking it would never mean anything. Who could imagine the USSR breaking up?
But then the USSR broke up in 1991 and guess what - sebastopol belonged to the new independent Ukraine. There were fights over the port - many in Kiev wanted the russians out. But a treaty was negotiated for cheap natural gas in exchange for the port staying in russian hands.
how does ukraine guarantee safety of russians? Well they can't REALLY do that, but the safety of the russians in ukraine isn't really Putin's goal. he's happy to keep the threat of re-invasion as a gun pointed at Kiev for the next 20 years. So kiev stays with russia instead of europe.
and if there are anti-russian pogroms...well that would be great for Putin - he could send peacekeepers in without shame.
an interesting tinderbox is Kalingrad, a part of Russia separated from the homeland, next to Poland and Lithuania. keep an eye on that.