I'm not sure why people worry so much about drops in the stock market... they only last a few years max. have an emergency fund and ride it out?
I'm not sure why people worry so much about drops in the stock market... they only last a few years max. have an emergency fund and ride it out?
Yoga. Not western yoga, eastern. Get control of your mind. You'll be ready for anything and nothing.
If you think a crash so severe is coming that food and water will be at a premium, invest in food, water, guns and big dogs.
Lead is a hell of a lot more powerful than gold when it comes to survival.
But I think worrying about that is insane.
Spend all of your money on coke and whores. Yolo bitches!
ryan foreman wrote:
Seriously, how did so many Americans get brainwashed into thinking that a market crash and high inflation happen at the same time? When has that ever happened?
You mean besides the 1970s???
Bitcoin.
Non-inflationary digital currency.
Value, as with anything, is what people will pay for it. This increases the more people use it and businesses accept it.
Peer-to-peer: entire community verifies payments as units of the blockchain.
Value of every transaction is traceable, but owner of Bitcoins remains anonymous.
Ability to transfer anywhere in the world, with no transaction fees.
Wallet codes can't be brute-force hacked.
Anti-fragile network, meaning it can be improved when it encounters problems.
When did the market crash in the 1970s? There was a severe Bear market in the early 70s. I don't think qualifies as a crash. At least not a major one. There was inflation that went along with it. But that coincided with the OPEC oil embargo where oil prices instantly quadrupled. Which gets to my point that there has to be a major sudden impact to the productive capacity of the American economy. Maybe something like that could happen again. But the OP is not predicting anything like that. Just that there will be a market crash.
kartelite wrote:
ryan foreman wrote:Seriously, how did so many Americans get brainwashed into thinking that a market crash and high inflation happen at the same time? When has that ever happened?
You mean besides the 1970s???
Buy as many running shoes as possible
ryan foreman wrote:
When did the market crash in the 1970s? There was a severe Bear market in the early 70s. I don't think qualifies as a crash. At least not a major one. There was inflation that went along with it. But that coincided with the OPEC oil embargo where oil prices instantly quadrupled. Which gets to my point that there has to be a major sudden impact to the productive capacity of the American economy.
Maybe something like that could happen again. But the OP is not predicting anything like that. Just that there will be a market crash.
kartelite wrote:You mean besides the 1970s???
The DJIA dropped close to 50% in 1973 and 1974. I think that qualifies as a "crash," and a major one at that (roughly on the order of what the OP was envisaging when it becomes important to find some other place to put your assets). Perhaps you don't, and you're entitled to that opinion. I think you're a smart guy, but you missed the mark on this one. Other countries, including I believe the UK, were hit even harder both in terms of inflation and the stock index plummeting. I wasn't around then, but as someone with an econ and finance background (CFA, grad degrees in the subject) the 1970s are definitely seen as a "major crash," and there was undoubtedly high inflation at the same time.
Well, there is no agreed upon metric of what a crash is. So yeah, I can't really disagree with you. I just think the stock market drop at that time was a little more drawn out over a number of months and years and therefore doesn't qualify as a crash. I think of a crash as just what the word suggests. A sudden 20% drop in a matter of days. I don't think that happened in the early 70s.
kartelite wrote:
ryan foreman wrote:When did the market crash in the 1970s? There was a severe Bear market in the early 70s. I don't think qualifies as a crash. At least not a major one. There was inflation that went along with it. But that coincided with the OPEC oil embargo where oil prices instantly quadrupled. Which gets to my point that there has to be a major sudden impact to the productive capacity of the American economy.
Maybe something like that could happen again. But the OP is not predicting anything like that. Just that there will be a market crash.
The DJIA dropped close to 50% in 1973 and 1974. I think that qualifies as a "crash," and a major one at that (roughly on the order of what the OP was envisaging when it becomes important to find some other place to put your assets). Perhaps you don't, and you're entitled to that opinion. I think you're a smart guy, but you missed the mark on this one. Other countries, including I believe the UK, were hit even harder both in terms of inflation and the stock index plummeting. I wasn't around then, but as someone with an econ and finance background (CFA, grad degrees in the subject) the 1970s are definitely seen as a "major crash," and there was undoubtedly high inflation at the same time.
ryan foreman wrote:
Well, there is no agreed upon metric of what a crash is. So yeah, I can't really disagree with you.
I just think the stock market drop at that time was a little more drawn out over a number of months and years and therefore doesn't qualify as a crash. I think of a crash as just what the word suggests. A sudden 20% drop in a matter of days. I don't think that happened in the early 70s.
The OP's concern certainly seemed to be over the effect of a prolonged, severe drop (markets down 50%), as well as "inflation taking over," which isn't really something that happens "in a matter of days."
Foreman: "Really, the only possible way you can have both a market crash and high inflation is if there is some epic disaster like a major war on our own soil and where the fundamental productive capacity of our country is suddenly destroyed."
Right, that's the kind of thing I'm talking about.
Essentials are becoming more centralized, and thus more prone to complete disruption, which would produce that sudden destruction of the "fundamental productive capacity" of the country.
Examples:
Interconnected electrical grid, controlled to an increasingly large extent by software that can be destroyed/corrupted, and transmitted through limited notes that are vulnerable to failure.
LPG and oil delivery via few modalities--pipelines very easy to disrupt.
Banking/money/equities/futures/bonds/etc. all controlled by software and electricity.
Telecom totally dependent on stable electricity.
Dwindling supplies of water, and very centralized future delivery system.
You get the idea. Look at what happens to the "fundamental productive capacity" when small things happen, like drought in the west, Katrina in the south, or 9/11 shutting down the exchanges. Most recently, a trivial amount of snow, for which nobody is properly prepared.
As Americans, we live increasingly in the moment, we do not plan for the future, either as a culture or as individuals. For some it is difficult as they CANNOT, because they live hand-to-mouth, and I suspect this is the case for a majority of Americans. People who live in the cold do so without real winter jackets, relying instead on cars and central heat. People who live in the heat don't have backup generators for their refrigerators. Nobody knows how to fix anything, or rely on themselves to a large extent--EVERYBODY is "plugged in".
I see a crash, AND inflation, in the short term. No, I'm not a nutjob living with my guns and ammo. I don't want to convert to a survivalist mentality, but I could if I needed to.
I'm wondering how to weather a storm that will see HUGE initial pain, die-off's, a breakdown in scale and increasing regionalization, and a new, more economic equilibrium, and I'm wondering how I can even begin to prepare for this while not simply buying seeds, guns, and water.
vox cursor wrote:
Bitcoin.
Non-inflationary digital currency.
Value, as with anything, is what people will pay for it. This increases the more people use it and businesses accept it.
Peer-to-peer: entire community verifies payments as units of the blockchain.
Value of every transaction is traceable, but owner of Bitcoins remains anonymous.
Ability to transfer anywhere in the world, with no transaction fees.
Wallet codes can't be brute-force hacked.
Anti-fragile network, meaning it can be improved when it encounters problems.
If you're trying to avoid a crash, you couldn't find a more stable investment than bitcoin.
http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-plunges-50-on-mt.-gox-to-hit-usd230-as-troubles-continue-266646What are you envisioning in all this? That we are going to have some kind of "Pearl Harbor" event where somebody is going to attack our soil? I just don't see that happening. You are right that there are certain points of our infrastructure that are critical to the economy. But they are pretty well protected I think. And if they went down it can quickly be back on line. Wall street isn't going to panic in the interim. Really, what should be a lot more alarming to people is the risk of a very long gradual decline in the stock market over a generation like what happened Japan starting around 1990. It may not happen in our lifetimes. But I can easily see it happen at some point.
Maserati wrote:
Foreman: "Really, the only possible way you can have both a market crash and high inflation is if there is some epic disaster like a major war on our own soil and where the fundamental productive capacity of our country is suddenly destroyed."
Right, that's the kind of thing I'm talking about.
Essentials are becoming more centralized, and thus more prone to complete disruption, which would produce that sudden destruction of the "fundamental productive capacity" of the country.
Examples:
Interconnected electrical grid, controlled to an increasingly large extent by software that can be destroyed/corrupted, and transmitted through limited notes that are vulnerable to failure.
LPG and oil delivery via few modalities--pipelines very easy to disrupt.
Banking/money/equities/futures/bonds/etc. all controlled by software and electricity.
Telecom totally dependent on stable electricity.
Dwindling supplies of water, and very centralized future delivery system.
You get the idea. Look at what happens to the "fundamental productive capacity" when small things happen, like drought in the west, Katrina in the south, or 9/11 shutting down the exchanges. Most recently, a trivial amount of snow, for which nobody is properly prepared.
As Americans, we live increasingly in the moment, we do not plan for the future, either as a culture or as individuals. For some it is difficult as they CANNOT, because they live hand-to-mouth, and I suspect this is the case for a majority of Americans. People who live in the cold do so without real winter jackets, relying instead on cars and central heat. People who live in the heat don't have backup generators for their refrigerators. Nobody knows how to fix anything, or rely on themselves to a large extent--EVERYBODY is "plugged in".
I see a crash, AND inflation, in the short term. No, I'm not a nutjob living with my guns and ammo. I don't want to convert to a survivalist mentality, but I could if I needed to.
I'm wondering how to weather a storm that will see HUGE initial pain, die-off's, a breakdown in scale and increasing regionalization, and a new, more economic equilibrium, and I'm wondering how I can even begin to prepare for this while not simply buying seeds, guns, and water.
gold or silver, duh!
dR Trollingwood wrote:
vox cursor wrote:Bitcoin.
Non-inflationary digital currency.
Value, as with anything, is what people will pay for it. This increases the more people use it and businesses accept it.
Peer-to-peer: entire community verifies payments as units of the blockchain.
Value of every transaction is traceable, but owner of Bitcoins remains anonymous.
Ability to transfer anywhere in the world, with no transaction fees.
Wallet codes can't be brute-force hacked.
Anti-fragile network, meaning it can be improved when it encounters problems.
If you're trying to avoid a crash, you couldn't find a more stable investment than bitcoin.
http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-plunges-50-on-mt.-gox-to-hit-usd230-as-troubles-continue-266646
The 230 USD value is on one exchange that has isolated itself from the network to prevent withdrawals, the result of either corruption or incompetence in security. The actual market value is equivalent to 600 USD.
vox cursor wrote:
dR Trollingwood wrote:If you're trying to avoid a crash, you couldn't find a more stable investment than bitcoin.
http://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-plunges-50-on-mt.-gox-to-hit-usd230-as-troubles-continue-266646The 230 USD value is on one exchange that has isolated itself from the network to prevent withdrawals, the result of either corruption or incompetence in security. The actual market value is equivalent to 600 USD.
And remind our listeners what the actual market value was in November...
Well, if you can't handle price corrections then maybe invest your money elsewhere.
Buy guns and food
vox cursor wrote:
Well, if you can't handle price corrections then maybe invest your money elsewhere.
October: $100
November: $1200
Now: $220 - $630
Point is if you're running from the instability of stocks, which are propped up by real businesses earning real money, a made up currency propped up by nothing is probably not the place to shift your wealth.