Farah's chances of winning London?

just sayin wrote:

Like a previous poster commented

The first thing that struck me about mos switch to marathon is that he's not doing this to make up the numbers

There's too much Nike €€€€£££ at stake

I suspect fowl play

It would be incredibly bada@@ if an group of eagles picked Farah up at the 35k mark and boosted him to an astonishing 17:30 last 7k and new WR of 2:01:20

I wont be surprise if Mo wins it , he is warrior

Olympic and world double champ

lslo wrote:

Tyrannnosaurus Rexing wrote:

and newsflash: a guy like Teg doesn't work a real job and is very talented and has all the "advantages" of running for nike and western coaches like sal and schu that cult_fit_paleo_clown outlined (lol). so..... he should be running 204 real soon right? can"t wait!

Teg can't even run anywhere close to what he used to run. He's not a very good example of whatever point you're trying to make.

He has often been mileage-constrained, which is not a good characteristic for marathoning. Nike has been helpful for him, but unless he gets lucky, it will probably not quite be enough to be in the top few US marathoners.

Mo Farah is not racing London to win, he is racing to break the British record, that is all. This is straight from Farah's mouth...

mark b wrote:

A very , VERY good chance of winning. As I have said before on this site there is too much at stake in terms of finance/reputation/commercial success for athlete/coach/Nike for Farah to try anything without the whole project being analysed very carefully and the chances of success being assessed as very high.

Why would Mo try a marathon simply in order to run , say , 2:08? Whose reputation/balance sheet would benefit from that?

Of course , nothing can be totally guaranteed in any race let alone a marathon but do not be surprised by a winning run by Farah in a very fast time (if conditions are OK - another factor in England in April).

pr100 wrote:

Hard to say with a first time marathoner.

Interesting that he is favourite with the bookmakers. So there's probably money to be made by betting against him if you're certain he won't win.

I'd say that there is DEFINITELY money to be made on pretty much any sporting event that you are certain of.

He has incorporated sprints into his workout, which of course will explain why he will win his debut marathon. Salazar is a genius.

fanboi wrote:

So the best marathoners are saving themselves for 1 race 2 years from now? Really?

No, they would save themselves for big marathons where they'd get huge appearance checks instead of running non-Olympic championships.

just sayin wrote:

they're working real jobs cos they can't run fast enough to make REAL MONEY

1/10 Ventolin

A real job is real money. The US isn't competitive in the marathon because we don't need to be. In Kenya it's either try running marathons or stay poor. With every Kenyan success there's hundreds that try and don't make it.

ggvhg wrote:

pr100 wrote:

Hard to say with a first time marathoner.

Interesting that he is favourite with the bookmakers. So there's probably money to be made by betting against him if you're certain he won't win.

It's easier to say with a first timer than one with experience. Very unlikely to win. Considering he'll go with the lead pack, fair chance he'll DNF. Geb ran 2:06 in his debut and took years to get really fast.

Geoffrey Mutai has juicy odds at 12/1 compared to Mo's 3/1.

Where can I find these odds and is it possible to bet from the US?

ggvhg wrote:

Where can I find these odds and is it possible to bet from the US?

Summary of odds - you can click through to place bets (I suppose).

Don't know if you can bet from the US, but presumably.[quote]Atypical handle wrote:

Atypical handle wrote:

ggvhg wrote:

It's easier to say with a first timer than one with experience. Very unlikely to win. Considering he'll go with the lead pack, fair chance he'll DNF. Geb ran 2:06 in his debut and took years to get really fast.

Geoffrey Mutai has juicy odds at 12/1 compared to Mo's 3/1.

Where can I find these odds and is it possible to bet from the US?

As I expected the British are betting really high on Mo, but I didn't think it would be that high. If you just put money on Kipsang, Kebede, and the two Mutais...

Legally, no, you can't bet from the US unless you're in Nevada or can figure out some clever Bitcoin-based gambling scheme.

pr100 wrote:

Hard to say with a first time marathoner.

Interesting that he is favourite with the bookmakers. So there's probably money to be made by betting against him if you're certain he won't win.

It's easier to say with a first timer than one with experience. Very unlikely to win. Considering he'll go with the lead pack, fair chance he'll DNF. Geb ran 2:06 in his debut and took years to get really fast.

Geoffrey Mutai has juicy odds at 12/1 compared to Mo's 3/1.

take mutai for the win absolutely.

mo is not likely to win, maybe a #5 finish would be good.

we are talking about moe dying after 22 miles and hurting big time before then. you can't go from 3:28 1.5 k and change over to a marathoner overnight.

no one - but no one - has run an all top 1500m time and won a top marathon in the same year. then again, who was silly enough to try??

well that is the way to win money betting anyway. however there are once in a lifetime performances that defy all odds. but you should get good odds for going out on a limb.

at 3/1 you should leave that bet alone.

there is no real physiological basis for your belief.

motor unit recruitment is far more complex.

Xfit_guy_the_real_1 wrote:

lslo wrote:

1. Body types change with training. They are not fixed.

Right. Ronnie Coleman, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Rich Froning, to name the three most influential strength athletes of the last few decades, weren't born BIG. They worked hard to become as strong as mf big as they are now and they deserve your respect.

I am sure Mo Farah could BULK up and look like a real man if he wanted to. I am sure his wife would appreciate it.

They also consumed ridiculous amounts of steroids.

At AI, I wrote an article suggesting that he will run 2:04-high to 2:05-low, with the usual caveats about weather and defrocked Irish Priests.

As for placement. If he runs 2:04-high to 2:05-low and the weather is very favourable, he will be top five and within 90 seconds of the lead.

Unless of course we get yet another shocking and paradigm-shifting result....

Bekele will run oh-so slightly better in his marathon...same...usual caveats.

I still think it's kind bizarre he's running the marathon. Less than one year ago he was working with John Smith developing sprinting technique. For someone with Salazar's long-term approach, that just seems weird. If they were genuinely planning on moving toward the marathon so soon, why on earth would be have been worried about the gains from working with a sprint coach?

I think the real tragedy for London, still, is Bekele's absence. That matchup is exactly what the sport is missing. Like boxing with Manny-Mayweather.

Farah's chancs of winning London are 0.0%

Odds for the field are here. 12-1 for G Mutai.

http://m.oddschecker.com/athletics/london-marathon#athletics-london-marathon-mens-london-marathon-2014-winner

wtfunny wrote:

I still think it's kind bizarre he's running the marathon. Less than one year ago he was working with John Smith developing sprinting technique. For someone with Salazar's long-term approach, that just seems weird. If they were genuinely planning on moving toward the marathon so soon, why on earth would be have been worried about the gains from working with a sprint coach?

I think the real tragedy for London, still, is Bekele's absence. That matchup is exactly what the sport is missing. Like boxing with Manny-Mayweather.

This ^^