Official Galen Rupp 2 Mile Prediction & Race Talk/Split Thread

8:06:00 of course. Sleazy Sal knows better than all of you dumbheads.

The tables give 3:47 and 8:05 as equivalents. But I would be quite surprised if he could translate the 7:30 so well. Just when you think that Komen with his 7:59 was still 'off' of what it could have (in theory!) converted to (7:55).

On the other hand, he possibly improved. Would be quite incredible. His 7:30 I see as his finest race to date (along with his silver medal, of course). It's the only race, he won on the circuit against good competition. Very sad that you can only see the last 400 or so of it. If you watch it, you can also see that, if he didn't had to pass some guys on the last curve, it would have been under 7:30!!

So, same form I would also expect him to get the record (with good pacemaking).

For the mile, I see 3:48 as ceiling, but I have difficulties believing in it...

What time is the race today?

8:05.52

19.35h ET, I think.

8:09:48

He ran 8:16 for his last 3200m in the 5k indoor record. So that's like 8:19 for 2 miles.

I predict he'll feel OK, but not as strong as he did in the 5k.

8:07.96

He ran 8:16 for his last 3200m in the 5k indoor record. So that's like 8:19 for 2 miles.

I predict he'll feel OK, but not as strong as he did in the 5k.

8:07.96

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

He ran 8:16 for his last 3200m in the 5k indoor record. So that's like 8:19 for 2 miles.

I predict he'll feel OK, but not as strong as he did in the 5k.

8:07.96

Good point on the last 3200m.

who cares, he is a drug cheat! not interested at all with what he is doing

8:04.99

How fast does he have to run to get a black page? Under 8:04?

WHYTHEFUSSGUS wrote:

who cares, he is a drug cheat! not interested at all with what he is doing

Who isn't at that level?

Doesn't make it right because everyone else is doing it

WHYTHEFUSSGUS wrote:

who cares, he is a drug cheat! not interested at all with what he is doing

Evidence?

7:59.7

Someone had to do it.

8:04:14

7:58.60Someone has to break it.

jewbacca wrote:

7:59.7

Someone had to do it.

Indoor 2 miles is a Barnum & Bailey distance. Actually, there should be an adjustment for foreknowledge of a public post-race workout, controlling for its impact on the central governor. In his honor, let's call that the Bruce Denton Effect--he who, in the book, ran the deuce. Just as Goodell is poised to abolish the PAT, Nike should push for mandatory Olympic post-race workouts. This is unrelated: Federer is pathetic for whining about Nadal's intermittent grunting, just as he whined about Joker's slap return on match point at the US Open. Wait, there is linkage: Fed is also a Beaverton payee.

rekrunner wrote:

Purdy says 7:30.16 equals 3:45.55

Daniels says 3:47.32

Kellogg's 3:46.87 seems to match well with other predictions (disregarding ventolin's black art)

Tyrannosaurus Rexing wrote:

JK is a dingbat. 7:30 is not worth 3:46. Sorry, it just ain't.

ok, I was a bit quick and harsh with my assessment. However, some if it was based on JK's other comments about drugs and other conversions that I didn't agree with it. But simply taking the 7:30.16 = 3:46.8, it seems he is not as far off as I first suspected. But I still stand by my comment that it is a bit fast.

You say Daniels gives 3:47.3. Iaaf gives about mid 3:47's. My own conversion, which comes from simply taking the amount of seconds he is off the 3k WR (9.5) and dividing in half (4.75) and adding that to existing 1500 WR (3:26.0) and getting a mile conversion would give you in the 3:47's also. Now that is not a perfect conversion (what is?), however, if one went with the presumption that Komen and El G's WR's are fairly equal, then that would be realistic. Some think is the best WR, others (like ventolin), not so much. And as good as it is, let's face it, the event CERTAINLY has not had as many high quality record attempts as the 1500, and is not a marquee event. One could easily argue that if El G, Komen, Bekele, and Geb were putting ALL their eggs in the hunt for 3k glory and WR's (let's say it was an olympic event also instead of the 5k), the record could, reasonably, be lower. Let's be modest and say 7:20 flat or 7:19.9 at best (hardly a big jump).

In that case, all conversions are changed a bit, and with my conversion, you get 3:48 flat.

I don't think such an idea is unreasonable. I stand by my: 7:30 ain't as good as 3:46. But JK was not too far off. High 3:47 to 3:48 seems more likely. I will go with 3:48 flat.

(and of course this is a "conversion", not a "what can Rupp run for the mile" statement. He is a better 3k runner, so it makes sense that he ran high 3:50.'s when he ran a 3k = to a 3:48 flat performance.)