RE: The Stock Market Has Officially Entered Crazytown Territory

bul kathos wrote:

(1)This last year has seen the manipulation go into overdrive. I have never seen anything like 2013 where fundamentals play no part whatsoever in the value of assets.

(2)Physical Gold is in huge demand but the price has been hammered down.

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(1) implies that you are probably under 19 years old

(2) suggests that you do not understand the law of supply and demand

Thanks for your very insightful input though.

millertown wrote:

At least I know I can count on unbiased analysis from The Economic Collapse Blog.

you win the thread

Of stocks go down, letsrun laughs at the fools who invest. If they go up, letsrun says the market is broken. There's no outcome that will satify the gold and doomsday clowns.

my 403b is up 35% above my contributions and i've only been in the game for 3 years. raising my eyebrow a little bit.

Show Me the Money wrote:

(2) suggests that you do not understand the law of supply and demand

Thanks for your very insightful input though.

I think you misread the post. When demand goes up there are more people competing for fewer resources so the price of the resource goes up as well.

So it is counter-intuitive for price to go down with surging demand.

Thanks for the economic stimulus Obama!

i know im not selling. Avoiding the 25% immediate hit on profits. I cant imagine what it feels like to be in the 39% bracket. Thats just my reasoning for the continual move.

Jan 2 should be an interesting day

atrrunner wrote:

Of stocks go down, letsrun laughs at the fools who invest. If they go up, letsrun says the market is broken. There's no outcome that will satify the gold and doomsday clowns.

The crowd that invests and the crowd that trades are very different.

Those who invest and do so for the long term would need many years like this one to catch up to Gold or Silver.

SP in 2000: 1400

SP in 2013: 1800

Gold in 2000: 350

Gold in 2013: 1200

Even reinvesting dividends and having amazing wins in your portfolio (aapl) wouldn't have kept you on pace with Gold or Silver.

2013 was a revision to the long term mean. Think of it as an opportunity to lighten up equities and get long some metals or other commodities before the next leg higher.

The entire World is entering a long term stagnation period, where margins are crushed globally in all businesses and where liquidity injections become more common, sending necessary commodities and services through the roof in price.

Interest rates will head towards zero, and margins and profitability will still be crushed. Its part of the transition to a new age (singularity) in business and culture. Currencies will continue to lose, equities will stall in real purchasing gains, and real investment opportunities will be slim to none, a giant flattening curve.

And still, for most life will get better and go on. This is the peak of modern capitalism.

I think there was a gold bubble. But Forbes disagrees and what do I know.

There is a strong possibility of market manipulation by the major banks.

really? You pick a once in a generation top in stocks and a once in a generation low in gold, compare the two, and then say that is the 'long term trend'?

that analysis, mr problems, will get you a lot of problems.

agip wrote:

really? You pick a once in a generation top in stocks and a once in a generation low in gold, compare the two, and then say that is the 'long term trend'?

that analysis, mr problems, will get you a lot of problems.

Isn't that what Flagpole does with gold? Always from 1980/81.

The reality is that if you go back to when Nixon decontrolled the price of gold in about 1970, gold and stocks are up about the same.

As for the crazy market, etc., where was the DOW in 1996? 5000 is where it was. What happened in the next 3-4 years? Uhh huh.

This week, Barrons has the P/E for the SP500 at 19.99. Before the top in 1999-2000, it got to 29.5.

Don't sell until the tiger turns around and bites you.

coach d wrote:

agip wrote:

really? You pick a once in a generation top in stocks and a once in a generation low in gold, compare the two, and then say that is the 'long term trend'?

that analysis, mr problems, will get you a lot of problems.

Isn't that what Flagpole does with gold? Always from 1980/81.

The reality is that if you go back to when Nixon decontrolled the price of gold in about 1970, gold and stocks are up about the same.

As for the crazy market, etc., where was the DOW in 1996? 5000 is where it was. What happened in the next 3-4 years? Uhh huh.

This week, Barrons has the P/E for the SP500 at 19.99. Before the top in 1999-2000, it got to 29.5.

Don't sell until the tiger turns around and bites you.

since 1926:

stocks +6.8% real return

gold: +1.8% real return

it's hard to find a time frame during which gold has outperformed stocks - starting in 2000 is just about the only way to do it.

My chart doesnt' have a starting period in 1970 so I can't test your hypothesis.

Agreed on the unpredictablity of the stock market

bul kathos wrote:

Physical Gold is in huge demand but the price has been hammered down.

could you explain a scenario in which this is possible?

You can't make a comparison between gold and stocks before 1970 because the price was controlled by the government. But let's not forget that the last 15 years have not been just a gold boom but a commodity boom. You could have made more money investing in copper....and going back to 2009, I could have made about as much if I had bought

Swiss frank futures.

That whole game seems to be over....UNLESS another major top in the USA triggers another collapse in Europe, then China....and the central bankers are in the same position in 2016 they were in 2008. Could it happen? We'll know when we get there. And just as in the 2000 top when there was the tech bust and then it was something else (real estate), when it tops this time there will be something else.

agip wrote:

bul kathos wrote:

Physical Gold is in huge demand but the price has been hammered down.

could you explain a scenario in which this is possible?

I'm not him, but the answer is: "Of course... but you don't want to hear it for any productive reasons, and are not open to learning anything positive about gold (and *gasp* potentially negative about stocks or the economy) so there is no point in trying to educate you."

Can you NOT explain a scenario in which this is possible?

lover of logic wrote:

agip wrote:

could you explain a scenario in which this is possible?

I'm not him, but the answer is: "Of course... but you don't want to hear it for any productive reasons, and are not open to learning anything positive about gold (and *gasp* potentially negative about stocks or the economy) so there is no point in trying to educate you."

Can you NOT explain a scenario in which this is possible?

If there is truly huge demand for physical gold (which may not be true at all - I don't know) yet the price is falling, the only explanation I can come up with is that supply is more than huge, it is double plus huge. Possibly triple plus huge.

the only way this is bullish for gold is if governments are selling gold in a panic. when that stops, gold will rocket back up, the theory would go.

am I right?

or is there some sinister other reason for the 30+% fall in gold price from its peak?

You're right that I generally disregard goldbugs' theories - they are almost always far fetched, conspiratorial and apocalyptic.

coach d wrote:

You can't make a comparison between gold and stocks before 1970 because the price was controlled by the government.

And which markets are being controlled/manipulated by the government/reserve today...?

Catalysts for 2014/15 recession:

Asian sovereign debt crisis

Municipal/state debt crisis

Higher eduction debt crisis

Chinese commercial real estate bubble

Student debt/degree deflation/youth unemployment

Ill-prepared baby boomer retirement/health

Talk of Hillary Clinton for president

Just to clarify, my market manipulation and crisis-list are not meant to be taken together.

atrrunner wrote:

Of stocks go down, letsrun laughs at the fools who invest. If they go up, letsrun says the market is broken. There's no outcome that will satify the gold and doomsday clowns.

This is CORRECT! Nice job atrrunner.

This would be the mantra for MOST Americans though as still only about half of Americans invest money in the stock market...retirement plans or otherwise, and even among those half, a certain percentage of them will take money out and put it back in trying (statistically unsuccessfully) to maximize their profits.

The fact remains that timing the market doesn't work in your favor; you can't really predict when the market will tank or go up or by how much or when. SOOOO, the best answer remains:

1) Emergency fund of 3-6 months of expenses.

2) Debt free but for a house and MAYBE a large student loan.

3) 15% or more into stock mutual funds.

4) Add more bonds within 10 years of retirement OR have cash reserves of 2-3 YEARS of expenses if all the rest is in stocks.