Immortal Lobster wrote:
This do you guys really believe a 4:47 miler can only run 2:17 for 800 if so she is capable of shattering american records in the 5 10 half and full
4:49.33 for 1600 meters, actually, although your point is well taken. But even better: How likely is it that someone who has run 10:06.74 for 3200 meters can't crack 2:17.48 in the 800? Well, let's take a similarly excellent time for a boy -- say 8:50 -- and do the math:
137.48/606.74 = x/530
x = 2:00.09
Now, what are the chances that an 8:50 kid can't break two minutes for the 800 going all-out? Effectively zero.
Nonetheless, people asking about Baxter's rate of improvement have reason to be concerned. Her personal bests at the end of her freshman year were 4:53.23 and 10:13.00. Since then she's trimmed only 3.90 and 6.26 seconds respectively from these marks, and in fact ran her 1600 best as a sophomore. Saying that she's rarely even challenged is not enough to explain this plateau, and neither is her "low" mileage of (if people here are armed with correct info) 45 a week. She will likely enjoy a significant if unspectacular jump in performance next year and again plateau ending up as an outstanding but not out-of-this-world collegian with marks in the range of 9:15 for 3K, 15:35 for 5K and 32:25 for 10K.