rupp-certified saladbar wrote:
Spot the elite times three minutes AT THE ABSOLUTE MOST for conditions today. I'd say more like 2:00 given how easy Mutai had this one in hand. Even in the (somewhat) windy conditions he was easily good for 2:06:xx out there today if he was at all pushed.
Hardloper wrote:
I don't get you're math. You say spot the elites 2-3 minutes for the conditions today (giving Vail a 2:10-11 at NYC), but you're unwilling to accept that he could have run a 2:10-09 in Berlin?
I should clarify. I can accept a 4:00-5:00 difference between windy NYC 2013 and ideal conditions on a flat course, but I think tat most of that is from the course itself, not the weather influence (which I think has been exaggerated).
Going by NYC today vs PR: We've got Mutai 2:08 vs 2:04, Kebede 2:04 vs 2:09, Kawauchi 2:13 vs 2:08, Korir 2:11 vs 2:06. Those are just some guys who ran solid today whose times I recall. I admit five minutes off PR looks right. (So 2:13 today was indeed a hell of a run for Vail!)
I was mostly quibbling with my impression the poster was giving more credit for the wind than I think is right. I was watching on First Avenue, supposedly the windiest spot, and have friends who didn't find it to be so bad. I think that because it wasn't STILL the leaders held back a lot (Mutai calling off a CR attempt) and this DECISION (not the conditions directly) slowed things down.
TLDR? If a given elite runner could have rolled five minutes faster today on a windless pancake course, I'd put three minutes of that down to NYC vs Berlin topography and just two down to wind.