USA Olympic Marathon Team - 2016

Should be noted again wrote:

...

I'd also add Vail to the list of strong possibilities.

So, here's my 'bet':

Zero come from this list:

Hall, Ritz, Meb

Two (or three) come from this list:

Chelanga, Rupp, Derrick, Puskedra, Lowe, Trafeh, True, Bumbalough, Mead, Braun, Fernandez

I'll try to remember to bump this thread now and then since I now have a prediction on the line.

Oops, just noticed that Vail is not listed. Should be:

Chelanga

Rupp

Vail

Derrick

Puskedra

Lowe

Trafeh

True

Bumbalough

Mead

Braun

Fernandez

Two or three in 2016 to come from this list.

You are right, I forgot about Abdi and I think he broke 2:09. So we have 4 sub 2:10's in the last...how many years? Still not good.

Boel wrote:

If we look at the history of American Marathoning, only 1 "favorite" will make the team. The other 2 spots will be taken by the "challenger" group.

I expect the favorites in 2016 to be Ritz, Rupp, and Hall.

Only one of those guys will make the team. The Challenger group will be Ryan Vail, Meb Keflezighi, and 3-4 solid 2:12-2:14 guys. Two from this group will make it.

Mark my words...

you mean like in 2008 when 1 of the favorites, hall and ritz, made the team. oh, wait. that's 2. great analysis there.

montee ball wrote:

Talk about upsets all you want (I like the underdog too), but the 2016 US Olympic Marathon team will be Meb, Hall, and Ritz.

I'll take action against that threesome. I bet not all 3 make it. In fact I will predict none will

You could be right but try naming any of the three and it gets more difficult. The reason Ritz, Hall and Meb are still in the discussion is because no one else has stepped up to show they are a true contender. Vail might and then there are some that haven't run a marathon yet but the lack of depth is kind of shocking.

Lack of depth should not be shocking because there is no money in the sport. Hartmann is a top 5 us marathoner year in and year out, and he can't get a deal.

Graeme McDowell wrote:

You could be right but try naming any of the three and it gets more difficult. The reason Ritz, Hall and Meb are still in the discussion is because no one else has stepped up to show they are a true contender. Vail might and then there are some that haven't run a marathon yet but the lack of depth is kind of shocking.

Shocking compared to what? Ethiopia and Kenya today? OK, I'll give you that. But compared to what else is it so shocking? Maybe Japan?

I don't know, I'm just not seeing a whole lot of countries ahead of us.

And if you want to say compared to US in the 70s or 80s I am not so sure that is a fair comparison. Sure there were a bunch of folks within 5 minutes of 2:09 back then. But that's a whole lot different than being within 5 minutes of 2:04 today. Perhaps we really don't have folks who could get in that 2:03 - 2:06 range to be truly competitive. If so, is it that shocking that so few stick with it when they realize they are not going to be medal threats on the world scene?

math nerdster wrote:

you mean like in 2008 when 1 of the favorites, hall and ritz, made the team. oh, wait. that's 2. great analysis there.

Ritz was not a favorite in 2008. The trials was his second marathon with only a 2:14 under his belt.

Graeme McDowell wrote:

The rest of the world is running under 2:05. I understand there are cultural and economic difference between the US and east africa but at this time our guys aren't even in the same league. Seems like the US runners have given up and stopped trying.

Some East Africans (a lot of them) are running under 2:05. That hardly constitutes the rest of the world.

37 sub 2:05 all time, yes all Kenyan and Ethiopian except Hall's aided 2:04:58. Move it to 2:06 and there are 93...so I guess that's "some".

math nerdster,

Read the article. Ritz was NOT a FAVORITE! Dumb@ss.

Rupp

True

Ritz

Meb 4th or 5th

Shalane

Amy

Serena

Desi

Listening to the NYC interview with Kim and Amy... Kim almost concedes the marathon. Amy says "I AM a marathoner".

The question isn't who will make the team.

The question is 1:43, 3:30, 3:46, 8:11, 13:10, 27:34, ?????????

What will be the final number in this sequence?

Couldn't say it better myself. Hall is far from done and will finish in the top 3 at the trials. His credentials will see him through.

Logic 101 wrote:

Ryan Hall is NOT done. Some of you guys on this board are soooooooo ridiculously stupid it's embarrassing.

Ryan ran 2:06:17 at the 2008 London Marathon, that was a legitimate 26.2 race, no tailwind to argue about.

I would LOVE to place a bet with one of you know-it-alls. Jason Hartmann has a pr almost 5 minutes slower than Hall. He's 32 years old, nothing wrong with that as Ryan is 31...but he's not finishing in front of Ryan at the trials.

Ryan ran 2:08:04 in the 2011 Chicago Marathon. I don't care about his no shows, the guy can run. How many Americans are capable of that and have come even remotely close?

Ryan Hall will make the 2016 Men's Olympic Marathon Team.

I'm glad you mentioned Serena. Hardly anyone noticed what she did, twice. And many people are probably asking "Serena who?"

anti-cheater wrote:

Couldn't say it better myself. Hall is far from done and will finish in the top 3 at the trials. His credentials will see him through.

Logic 101 wrote:

Ryan Hall is NOT done. Some of you guys on this board are soooooooo ridiculously stupid it's embarrassing.

Ryan ran 2:06:17 at the 2008 London Marathon, that was a legitimate 26.2 race, no tailwind to argue about.

I would LOVE to place a bet with one of you know-it-alls. Jason Hartmann has a pr almost 5 minutes slower than Hall. He's 32 years old, nothing wrong with that as Ryan is 31...but he's not finishing in front of Ryan at the trials.

Ryan ran 2:08:04 in the 2011 Chicago Marathon. I don't care about his no shows, the guy can run. How many Americans are capable of that and have come even remotely close?

Ryan Hall will make the 2016 Men's Olympic Marathon Team.

His credentials plus $3.85 will get him a good cup of coffee.

NOBODY gets through on credentials, just in case you didn't know how the system works.

Logic 101 wrote:

Ryan Hall is NOT done. Some of you guys on this board are soooooooo ridiculously stupid it's embarrassing.

Ryan ran 2:06:17 at the 2008 London Marathon, that was a legitimate 26.2 race, no tailwind to argue about.

I would LOVE to place a bet with one of you know-it-alls. Jason Hartmann has a pr almost 5 minutes slower than Hall. He's 32 years old, nothing wrong with that as Ryan is 31...but he's not finishing in front of Ryan at the trials.

Ryan ran 2:08:04 in the 2011 Chicago Marathon. I don't care about his no shows, the guy can run. How many Americans are capable of that and have come even remotely close?

Ryan Hall will make the 2016 Men's Olympic Marathon Team.

What have you done for me lately?

Boel wrote:

Here is an example, just what I'm saying,

http://www.marathonguide.com/news/exclusives/usamenolympictrials_2007/MensOlympicTrialsMarathonFavoritesPreview.cfm

Funny that the favorites for 2008 ended up being the team in 2012.

Ricky MF Flynn!! Hall will come back and Ritz also